Member Info for Soder

I still think they are talking to Neptune.

Makes them a huge north sea player and really suits Neptune’s owners who want a public listing but valuations crappy at moment so prob won’t sell. This allows them to list their shares. Lock them up for a while. And exit over time.

Would be a company of 450-475k boe production.

That’s some serious cashflow. And very gassy so better from esg view point of view.

A lot of testing is decentralised in Europe. In particular in Germany. So it’s the labs themselves that purchase tests and not central government health services. So think government contracts very unlikely.

Based on nothing more the number of people I know who have tested positive in the last 24hrs I would not be surprised if the U.K. may go through 50k cases a day this week at some point.

I put this on another thread. 3 week contract on the platform for commissioning. It’s close.

https://uk.indeed.com/m/viewjob?jk=43d8445ddb82b9a4&from=serp&prevUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fuk.indeed.com%2Fm%2Fjobs%3Fq%3DInstrument%2BCommissioning

The market will soon enough get it’s head around the fact our earnings won’t be collapsing next year.

The valuation assigned by the market was assuming we were going to see ebitda declines from the 40m odd projected this year to sub 5m for 2022 (Based on 10x ev ebitda and 100m year end cash with no dhsc resolution)

Clearly thats not going to happen now. Europe having a ****ty winter which without full lockdowns of s going to take us through to spring. As such testing volumes will remain elevated and In fact, all we probably need is a couple of months in 2022 to hit 5m ebitda for 2022 given current testing volume run rate.

The latest covid spikes have given us another quarter of revenue at what? 7m a month at least? So that prob another 8-10m ebitda there alone.

One of our main markets

Merkel just said covid spike is “worse than anything we’ve seen”

Maybe Jeff :)

In my experience you only have instrument commissioning technicians on the platform during…..errrr commissioning. Turn on the taps boys. She gonna blow.

Rookie. Serica - I like it. Will throw off tons of cash next year at current price deck. Only 20 percent production hedged and Columbus first gas still due by year end. I think it’s more likely they use that cash to go on a shopping spree and add new assets rather than them being a direct target. But balance sheet is super strong so they in a great position to take advantage of current market. But….they do need to replace production. An easy trade at 200p.

2x Instrument commissioning technicians on tolmount. 3 week contract. Application deadline was 19th. Assume candidate selection and deployment takes 2 weeks then you are looking at December start for 3 weeks.

I would say that means we are right on schedule.

https://uk.indeed.com/m/viewjob?jk=43d8445ddb82b9a4&from=serp&prevUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fuk.indeed.com%2Fm%2Fjobs%3Fq%3DInstrument%2BCommissioning

You know it’s Saturday right?

Also implementing nationwide compulsory vaccination from February.

German minister won’t rule out germany following suit.

Yep. Covid is over.

You want them to RNS a pump and dump?

Dear financially illiterate, aim market, dream chasing, get rich quick or die trying, day traders, this is an RNS. Greed is the root of all evil. Love Novacyt.

Surfit. Gas is an odd one as it’s not so much hedged really but sold on long term contracts. So I guess it’s a form of hedging as you agree a volume and a fixed price per unit.

But as you say, if you are striking those contracts at the moment you are locking in a decent price per unit.

There is an optimal price for all commodities to maintain demand and keep economies strong. We are way through that in gas even at 105p a therm. The opex per bbl for gas is way way lower than for oil so at 80p+ we should be doing cartwheels.

80p is $62 boe and with possibly as low as $12 company wide average opex boe you are talking nearly half a billion dollars of free cash flow alone from tolmout at 80p. Obv it’s way higher than that in futures market but you can’t print an infinite amount as you need someone to take the other side.

And fyi….

Q1 delivery U.K. Nat gas is 216p/therm and summer 22 is 105p/therm. So a pretty big decline after winter demand subsides. However, on an apples for apples comparison with oil and barrels in USD that is equivalent to $168 bbl and $82 bbl.

Show. Me. The. Money.

At the last public update the company gave, 3 of the four development well had been drilled with the Valaris 123 Jack up on site and drilling the fourth and final well. Just FYI, that rig finished drilling on 6 November and is preparing to move off the field tomorrow (17 November) as it’s all done. HBR will incorporate the results from this final well with the other 3 (first 2 were as expected but 3rd had a shallower gas water content than expected) and still targeting project start up around year end with all 4 wells online. Also of note is that “tolmount gas sales agreements will be rendered and effective from October 2021”.

It’s coming. It’s coming. Fire up the engines to that money printing press Jed Clampett.

If you look at the register you can see several of the banks and funds that were allocated shares in the debt for equity swap have either reduced or look to now be out. For example:

Goldman. Sold 5.3m shares. Now left with just 200k.
Deutsche. Sold in 2.5m shares. Hold 2.1m now.
SEB. Sold 2.5m shares. Now out.
Socgen. Sold 2.4m shares. Left with 300k.
Rabobank. Sold 2.2m shares. Left with 300k.
BBVA. Sold 2.2m shares. Now out.
ARCM. Sold 2m shares. Left with 10.6m.
Norges bank. Sold in 1m shares. Now out.

Put that against the longs now and it’s beginning to start to look sticky and primed for a move.

Harbour North Sea. Own 36.7%
GIC. Own 12.7%
FMR. Bought 48.5m shares. Own 5.2%
Marshfield. Own 4.7%
UBS. Own 3.8%. Added small size.
Bank leumi. Bought 20m shares. Own 2.7%
Charles Schwab. Added 19m shares. Own 2.15%.

This is a better version

https://nre.gov.gy/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/ECO_ATLANTIC_GUYANA_INC.pdf

https://resourcecontracts.org/contract/ocds-591adf-2603001790/download/word

Clause 7

Although this is the old agreement (I believe was recently extended?) it does show some of the clauses the operator is subjected to and how they work in practice.

Interestingly, the operator has to submit a works plan and budget every year during the contract for work to be completed in the following year. That must be submitted 1 month prior to the start of that year.

Ie if they are going to drill in 2022 the operator will need to submit a plan for the works and a budget by end of November 2021.