Member Info for Soder

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/7015/8490/1957/orinduik-peteroleum-prospecting-license.pdf

Harchris. They haven’t and they won’t. Ask Mandy if that 100m guidance still stands. You won’t get an answer.

Risehall im only asking them to confirm the guidance for this year. Given its mid November how difficult can that be? Like genuinely how? I would think a decent chunk of sales they will book for this year will already be in the order book.

They are being difficult because they choose to be. They treat it likely a privately held business with no accountability to shareholders. And we let them do that.

Bh2sl. I have asked the company to either confirm or withdraw that revenue guidance several times since the last poorly worded rns. They flat out refuse and dodge and just keep repeating that same BS line from the rns re 3m impact of not having other tests validated.

I dont understand why it’s so hard for them to be straight? Genuinely it’s like they have no clue what they are doing.

Either way, given the bad news that has been out this year and the sp performance, if they did not build a big enough buffer into that 100m guidance to absorb 3 percent deviation/miss they are total dip ****s and all need firing.

Given current form he will prob surface with a profit warning

Have not the people who will have written the string grounds rns now left anyway? gun and the legal guy. Why is that? Voluntary my arse.

There is something going on here. And the silence of the new CEO is also deafening.

Isn’t this half the problem though. The BOD are t buying **** all of a company they are running when optically it looks like a free money party. They should be sticking their money where their mouths are.

I own more stock (excluding their freebies) than these ****ers combined have bought. That can’t be right.

How would the sp possibly take a battering if no deal?

Only a total moron would sell this at 19p after the recent results. **** Chad. **** Cameroon. **** niger. Just look at the exiting biz. If anyone wa ts to sell at 19p I will happily be there to take them out.

At 19p mkt cap is £189m which is $254m

Net debt is $370m

So enterprise value is 370+254= 624m

Ebitda for H1 21 was 91.5 so we can assume that given its utility like nature and excluding the new event contract that FY ebeitda will be 180m to be conservative.

This ev / ebitda is 3.4x for a company throwing off cash and dropping debt every day.

Like I said, only a financially illiterate dip**** would sell this at 3.4x given the known knowns.

19p?! MINE!!!! pay-on!!!!

Small news report out saying that according to a presidential decree an inter ministerial committee has been assigned to take part of the negotiations between sav and exon.

So doesn’t look like we there yet or maybe this is as a result of the fire and some renegotiation.

…”we have pretty significant positions in emerging basins in Guyana and Argentina and we’re looking at farm down opportunities there”

Game in.

That’s a very good point porky.

For this one I am less about the current financials as think it’s one that over the next few years will evolve hugely. The IP and technology is really exciting and I believe will be in huge demand. Let’s see.

Enterprise value = mkt cap + net debt

EKF = 374m + (1.3-20.8) = 354.5m
Fy estimated ebitda = 25.7
EV / EBITDA = 13.8x

NCYT = 185 + (2.2-77.2) = 110
Fy esti acted ebitda = 40? Ex dhsc
Ev / ebitda = 2.75

Using same valuation metric as EKF then ncyt mkt cap should be 627m and the share price just over £7.62.

I have never seen this before. I have no idea why apart from sentiment. I am baffled like everyone else.

Pendal is JO Hambro

Total holding now 1.05m shares or 1.49% of total outstanding shares

Oh please gawd no. El porky. The most financially illiterate ramper in history.

Kign…does really explain. Tolmount will be 20-25 net to HBR on verbal production so maybe max 12% of overall daily production. However, given it will be unhedged production it will contribute a greater share to ebitda.

But…hbr current valuation not only gives zero value to the future tolmout production but gives zero value to a decent chunk of the ACTUAL production which is ACTUALLY happening right now, every day.

Assuming tolmout on line early next year I think we are trading at sub 3x ev ebitda which for a company like let generating over a billion of FCF next year is beyond nonsense. So why?

Long and short of it lies with article 8 and esg. It’s very very very difficult for article 8 designated to nveatment funds to buy oil companies. In fa t it’s pretty much impossible. You take away that bid from any companies shred and there is no way retail have deep enough pockets to take up the slack? So how come other oil companies it’s stocks have risen recently? Easy. Because the big comps like bp and shell and currently using exceeds cash to make huge buy backs in the mkt.

The cap markets day in September has to set out a plan for excess cash and this HAS to include buybacks. I am pretty sure it will. That will be your catalyst for the stock move.

German health minister Spahn says fourth covid wave with us in full force. Says have already had to relocate first patients from overburdened regions and Heath service starts to creek.

Top institutional holders

Vatel 4.18%
Blackrock 2.81%
Herbert European growth 1.8%
Jo hambro 1.35%
Fundrock partners 0.82%
Argenta 0.4%
State street 0.33%
Ninety One 0.3%
Lyxor 0.2%
Schroders 0.14%
American century 0.13%
Teachers insurance and annuity assoc of America 0.12%
Getsys 0.05%

What do you mean due to end 3 nov? What was?

Hbr priced 500m of bonds at 5.5% coupon. These funded/settled on 18 October. So they had the funds then and will have repaid the shell facility.

The bonds, and no squally for a high yield issuer (they are rated bb-), have no restricted payments language. That will be very deliberate and allows them to make distributions to equity holders without needed to be in compliance with certain covenants.

No one doubting that he can turn this around. It’s whether post the scheme you will be owning the equity (or at least how much) to benefit from that turn around.

The creditors are senior to the equity and we will lose some ownership as part of any scheme. The million dollar q is how much.

In theory we could get totally dusted and the creditors take the lot.

For those with a bit more know-how regarding a labs ability to switch test/test provider….

Is it feasible that if a labs currently used pcr test did not make the main validated list or the temporary protocol list that we actually see in increased demand for promate which would actually take up the slack from the tests we are not available to supply?

Or is that just wishful thinking.