Member Info for Soder

Royal bank of Canada. Buy. Price target 410p

We believe the shares are attractively valued particularly considering the potential for consensus upgrades medium term driven by contribution of new brands.

Peel hunt. Buy. Price target 457p

Buy into weakness. On c. 19x PE, 11x ev/ebitda, further falls in boohoo share price makes this a compelling buying opportunity into peak, in our view. Margins remain sustainable at the 9% level over the medium term, revenue looks set to double over 3-4 years and cash generation remains outstanding.

JP Morgan. Overweight

“These results should be negative for the shares today. We expect a more negative reaction than the downside implies”

Liberian: buy. Target 360p

“While we were previously concerned about the long term financial and reputation are moat not the supply chain review, those risks have not materialised. We are satisfied with the progress the company has made so far to fix its supply chain issues as well as plans for the future. We believe that the current share price undervalues the company y as it should trade at a premium to its peers given its strong profitable growth forecasts and huge market opportunity. While we do not reflect this yet with our target price suggesting a discount, as the other to redemption is a long toad, but we fully think the company should start to see the benefits of the works it has done, the promises it has made for the future and the growth being achieved nearly doubling revenues over a last 2 year basis. We therefore reiterate our BUY call with a 360p target price”

Who would sell? Algos and robots who are not programmed to care about fundamentals. Just momentum. Selling triggers selling.

That’s pretty punchy.

We are down 13 percent too

It’s not at all.

Energy. Wages. Logistics. Materials.

Thanks bless you have been in a locked box for the last few months how can this be a surprise to you? I’m genuinely interested.

Look outside the window. Pick up any newspaper. Turn on the tv. Take off your blinkers. Open your eyes.

How can you POSSIBLY be surprised that costs are going up at the moment?

Seriously, how?

It’s what’s known as kitchen sinking it. As you say, writing down value of stock that much will have a positive benefit going forward. Even if you sell for minimal money it will boost the cash balance as it’s being held at no value.

Tbh, you usually do see this is a restructuring when management and owners are trying to get equity valuation as low as possible to ride it up quickly after.

Harrycash I think your post proves exactly what hat the problem is with this share in that people do t read or can’t understand the situation what happened around the reverse merger.

We completed a debt restructuring and debt for equity swap. As such Wr have no bond holders and the lenders agreed to swap part of their debt holding for equity. This new debt pays like 5 percent. That is **** all. Like truly **** all. Tullow for example just had to do a bond with a 10.5 percent coupon.

Then you talk about why we not awash with cash. They has been communicated. Hedging. A requirement under the loan agreements and restructuring docs will as to undertake hedging in near term. Harbour have communicated this and also exactly what the hedge profile is. They have given you the exact volume and price of hedges over next 3 years. If you can’t read this and convert daily production to annual and see what % of your verbal business is hedged over next 12 months is that their fault or yours?

More than half this biz is u hedged in 2022. At 80 oil and 100p plus a therm gas. Ebitda is going to be way way north of 3bn post tolmount. That’s transformational. And will mean that debt is under 1x ebitda.

I don’t care about the sp today. I don’t care tomorrow. I don’t care next week or next month. I guarantee you this sp will be meaningfully higher come mid next year.

Tosh. Sell this. Buy shell. It declares in October and goes ex div in November.

If dividends are that important to you why not be stock in a company that historically has paid one instead of one that has said it will pay one in future.

I had this for a week now. Several people at work also. I did 4 LFT which were all negative before I decided to get a PCR.

Think there is a savage cold going around which people will obv get tested for to just make sure.

Yes. See below.

https://www.medicaldevice-network.com/news/coronavirus-timeline/

The daily news feed on this site for covid is really good.

The first rapid tests manufactured in the UK are being deployed at universities across England to detect asymptomatic Covid-19 cases. Also called lateral flow tests (LFTs), the tests are manufactured by SureScreen Diagnostics and deliver results within 15 minutes. Currently, the company can produce nearly seven million tests weekly and plans to grow the capacity to 14 million per week by the end of December this year. The UK Government says that these tests are an important part of its rapid testing programme to offer LFTs at no cost across the country.

Also just to clarify from my original post I should read 60 percent of gas is hedged. Not 69. I fat fingered. Either way the conclusion was the same. 40 percent of gas is unhedged and the gas price is currently as per below.

These prices are real and for physical delivery.

https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5188705&span=1

The q1 2022 price is 363 per cent higher than our existing hedges.

The summer 22 price is 178% higher than our existing hedges

The winter 22 price is 184 percent higher than our existing hedges.

Unless a tsunami rocks up in the north sea next year and takes out a production, this is going higher. Much higher.

I think it is Luke. All that info re hedges and production is from the publicly available presentation.

Just need pieces together.

Although the management could also come out and bang the drum a little more. This is genuinely a no brainer investment. .

Just wanted to build on what Luckcounts is saying in another thread re production to highlight the hedge book for 2022 so people can see the upside here

Today, right now we are doing 210k bbl of oil equivalent production. Right now. As stated in the presentation. That is pre tolmount which comes on line year end and will be 20k-25k net to harbour. Let’s take the lower end of the range and take 20k. That implies the production for 2022 is going to be 230k boe a day.

At the moment the presentation says production is 55% oil and 45% gas. As the 20k tolmount production is gas we can work out that for 2022 the production will be 50/50 oil and gas so let’s look at the upside from unhedged production.

The company have provided their 2022 hedges in page 25 of the presentation.
- oil: 19m boe hedged at $61 a bbl
- gas: 25m boe hedged at 49p a therm

This is crude (pardon the pun) but broadly correct…,
Total production = daily production x 360 days
Totally production = 230k x 360 = 82.8m boe

Half is oil. So 82.8/2= 41.4m boe
Half is gas. So 82.8/2=41.4m boe

Hedged oil % = 19/41.4= 46 percent at 61
Hedged gas % = 25/41.4 = 69 percent at 49p
Total production hedged = 44/82.8 = 53%

As such you can see SIGNIFICANT upside for 2022!!!!

- 40 percent of all gas production is unhedged
- 54 percent of all oil production is unhedged

There is HUGE, like truly HUGE upside to performance and cashflow here as the 2021 hedges roll off.

January. Hence why it is a target. But it’s a target based on maximum 12 months. Often it was called. 12 month price target.

Ratings and price targets are not an exact science but they are based on a rational argument.

A company is worth the discounted value of its future cashflows.

An analyst will model those cashflows using guidance from company on production, costs, capex, and tax rates etc etc. Near term the forecasts are usually pretty accurate all things being equal but obviously further out there is less certainty.

However, that’s their job and it’s is useful to see people’s opinions and view on how a business will evolve over next few years. Beyond the 2-3 year period an analyst will apply a perpetual value to future cashflows. Look up stuff like discounted cashflow and Gordon growth models.

If the present value of those discounted cashflows is the same as the share price then it’s daily valued. If, we take Barclays as an example the present value of those cashflows shows a fair value at 600p and the current Sp is 385p then it’s a buy as it’s undervalued.

Individual analyst have different views. But, harbour is covered by 11 analysts.

EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THOSE ANALYSTS HAS A PRICE TARGET HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT SHARE PRICE.

Thanks pretty conclusive. The range is 650p to 414p.

That’s pretty conclusive no?. So I conclusion, Either 11 analysts who cover this stock PROFESSIONALLY and have direct access to company management whenever they need are full of **** or you are?

Hmmmmmm