Member Info for Soder

@schwee.

The individual company analysts do not make assumptions on the spot or forward prices. Every bank or institution (eg a ratings agency) will have a commodity price deck they provide to the analysts to use in their models. These are ALWAYS Uber conservative. They are updated when required but all these price decks reflect a longer term view of commodities (not spot) so 3-6-12 months. You can get a view of that from the futures curve.

So in summary the teenage scribblers are not ramping. They are just modelling financials based on the price deck and the information on production and costs and capex provided by the companies they cover.

Stifel

Setting the baseline for the combined business. HOLD.

Results define the word “messy” given 1HH 21 reflects a full six months of chrysaor but with premier included from 31 march.

Production guidance has been maintained….hedging has had a significant impact on realised prices especially U.K. gas prices.

Streamline the business is already underway with the company deciding not to proceed with sea lion and exiting exploration in Brazil and Mexico.

Kraken. Enquest need to refi their bonds. They have a legacy 7% pik toggle note which allows them to turn off the cash component of the interest of the oil price is below 65 in the preceding 6 months before the interest is due. That was structured when it restructured in 2017. Of it piks (pay in kind) the interest essentially tools up and is added to the total debt. That has happened quite a few times which has aged enquest from certain default over the last 4-5 years.

However, there is no way…and I do mean NO WAY… that enquest will get such favourable terms from the market to refi that debt in a new primary market issuance. Just look at tullow who have 10.5 percent all cash coupon. Ithaca who pay 9 percent.

Enquest will without doubt be forced to pay similar and the size of that bond outstanding (post pik) to refi is going to be about $1.1bn.

At 10 percent that’s going to eat a whole lot of cashflow for the benefit of creditors. I would say 10 percent is a minimum. To get that size done, on a company with a chequered past who needs to constantly make acquisitions to replace production is not a slam dunk. The last time those bonds traded at par was way before the 2016 oil crash and they are owned by a lot of hedge funds.

Royal bank of Canada.

2021 production and opex guidance unchanged, a ramp up in drilling activity is underway that is helping to grow output in h2 and underpin 2022 production.

Reverse takeover rules limited guidance and hedging associated with the premier oil acquisition restricted leverage to the 2021 oil and gas price recovery. Like the lock ups these issues should unwind and looking ahead we expect management to focus on sustaining production…harbour remains a long term play with the scale that is lacking elsewhere in the U.K. sector.

Buy. Price target 635p.

Arden partners. Buy 500p target.

Barclays: results provide us with a solid baseline to better model the merged portfolio. Reassuringly there are no surprises in the results and outlook. We view the decision to exit from sea lion as a positive indication of managements capital allocation priorities. We continue to rate the stock overweight with the business already generating significant free cash flow.

OVERWEIGHT. Price target 600p.

Investec: overall the results should reassure investors around the focus at harbour to generate predictable strong cashflows. Key news includes the decision to exit the sea lion project, removing a major new basin capex project from the portfolio, progress towards tolmount first gas at around year end, and dividend details to be outlined, earlier than expected, at 9 December.

BUY. Price target 535p.

Will post any key comments I see through the day. But have a few analysts from the banks already out this morning confirming and refreshing their price targets post results.

Morgan Stanley 520p
Investec 535p
Stifel 490p
Barclays 600p

Most likely the dhsc are saying that the promate received in q1 was the replacement stock for the unused genesig kits. As such dhsc saying they had already paid Novacyt pre Xmas for these and sent back the old kits.

That would also fit with the recent write down of stock.

As a shareholder why do you want them to pay off debt? Your equity returns are increased if the balance sheet is levered. There is obviously a safe amount of debt/leverage which is optimal risk but when we are likely going to be under 1x net debt to ebitda for 2022 the last thing this company needs to do is pay off debt. It’s cheap and efficient capital.

IMO they are going to start using that cash for buy backs and hopefully for some m&a. If I want a dividend I go buy BP or SHELL. I want these guys to go for aggressive growth and take advantage of the fact the majors are giving away cheap production to purse a green dream with horrific returns on equity.

Would think probably related to the tests they do for bacteria. Eg salmonella

That’s the post covid revenues streams

The partnership with Lycra is truly huge.

It’s puts us in a path similar to that of technologies like goretex which is widely known and used globally.

Same here. Both mine were off last week and this week there has been confirmed cases in the schools.

Personally not seen this one before so looks new but stand to be corrected….

getsys sante biotech fund. Have disclosed a position of 27.5k shares.

French fund investing in low risk mid-term capital growth investments.

Shal100. Do you think they have floors and collars?

Obviously not a perfect t comp by any means. But she’ll just sold its Permian assets for $9.5bn to comics for about $9.5bn. They produce 175k boe a day in the Permian basis which is pretty low cost

We will do 185-195k this year and up to 220k production a day in 2022. Our current EV in USD is just over $7bn.

Cheap cheap said the little bird.

Posts like your just annoy me Simplyme…or maybe I should call you Simplystupid or Simplyignorant.

Google Humber Gathering System. Let me help you.

https://www.dana-petroleum.com/what-we-do/united-kingdom/tolmount/

Ahhh that’s right. As you can see the platform is the responsibility and cost of Dana and kellas. Not harbour!!!

Then also…. Below. Why so you think this is booked in if they not progressing full speed.

https://fishsafe.org/en/search/?searchTerm=Tolmount&action=searchSite

Finally you can look up the futures contracts pricing for U.K. gas all the way through 2022. It’s at multiples of historic levels.

So pipe down and put your nappy back on.

It’s very clearly net 20-25 for hbr. It always has been and it’s been very clearly stated numerous times.

If you have a field that will be 20k a day net production that comes online half way through the year it will add 10k to you overall average daily production FOR THAT YEAR IT CAME ONLINE. Basic maths.

As tolmount is now coming on at year end it will add zero to 2021 average daily production. However, it will add 20k for 2022.

No fear… the 20-25k is NET to harbour. There is no divide by 2!!!!

The 10k you are referencing is because it was due to come on stream in July so would have contributed 10k per day to ave daily production OVER THE FULL YEAR. Ie because it is 20k over half a year so adds 10k net to harbour for the year. But it’s not coming in July anymore.

Hence, I am correct.

U.K. gas prices settled at 189p a therm.

On an apples for apples basis with oil that is equivalent to $154 a barrel of oil equivalent (boe)

Let that sink in.

Even though we’ll hedged. For tolmount that means
Cash cash cash cash cash cash cash cash cash.

How much?

Hbr net from tolmount is 20-25k not per day. Let’s take the midpoint of that at 22.5k. That’s 8.2m boe production for a year (365 x 22.5k)

At $154 boe that is additional revenues gust from tolmount of $1.26bn!!!!!!!!!!

The opex per boe on tolmount is prob about $10-12 a boe so ebitda contribution could be over $1bn on just this one field coming on line shortly.

Wakey wakey. You can take a horse to water….