Member Info for Soder

To be clear. This type of financing is essentially like a loan but instead of repayment in cash, save will repay the loan in oil, direct to vitol.

That is a very very very very good find.

IMO this will be related to financing Chad and if so is very good news for the equity holders. Chad assets are mature and this info you have found Most likely means that save will be financing the deal (at least in part) via debt. Specifically with offtake agreements with vitol who are a trading shop and will give cash upfront for the future oil production. This will help keep any equity need down.

Great find. Getting exited now.

Winter testing capacity. Has winterplex written all over it. Flu testing.

See below for latest sp targets. Please also note that the analyst price decks are SIGNIFICANTLY below the current market prices for both oil and gas.

RBC outperform 650p
Morgan Stanley attractive 520p
Peel hunt add 425p
Stifel hold 490p
Berenberg hold 380p
Barclays overweight 600p
Can accord buy 415p
Investec buy 515p
Arden buy 500p
Jefferies buy 473p

Ithaca buying marubenis North Sea assets for $1bn

Main asset is the 42% stake in Montrose area.

No doubt hbr will have looked at this. It’s d big deal for Ithaca. No idea how they can afford that as already quite levered and privately owned. Delek, the owner, did have cashflow issues last year.

So when the government announced all travellers would need pcr tests on re-entry did we rally? Did we ******. The mkt gives us zero credit for these revenues. Let’s be honest the mkt gives us **** all credit for any revenue streams.

So some details on that JO hambro fund

Size £497m
Up 17.8% ytd
It’s a ucits fund that invests in U.K. growth companies Manley.
Bit of a mixed bag of holdings as as quite a lot of large cap in there. For example they own 28m BP. 20m astaZ, 18m Barclays. Top 10 holdings account for 37 percent of the fund.

Now this is interesting…. They owned Abingdon. Sold in June. They owned avacta. Sold in July. So they know the sector.

They have 61 holdings in total in the fund with the smallest in value being reabold resources with a holding value of 438k.

I see the below as recent

American century (Avantis). This is a small cap value etf. They own 25,994. Based in Kansas. Filing date 9 sep. current market value 112k.

Pendanl group. This is JO Hanbro. The fund that bought was JO Hambro U.K. Growth. They bought 610k shares. Filing date 31 Aug. Current market value 2.6m.

Teachers insurance and annuity association of America. Fund bought was college retirement fund. Based in New York. They bought 84,018. Filing date 16 august. Current market value 363k.

Ninety One asset management. Added 163,021 shares in n U.K. smaller companies fund. Filing date 16 august. Current market value of newly added portion 600k.

The interesting this is some of these funds look huge and could have scope to increase further. In particular the college retirement fund looks like it’s 140bn. But just doing some dd on it as may be looking at wrong info. Will revert.

Bloomberg via a company/fund filing

Not sure if this was posted but ninety one (old investec asset management) also filed an increase of 163k shares (total now 210k) on 16 august.

This one fund had sold out in w2 but have now bought back in.

Larry you are correct. It’s pretty self explanatory what it is especially in the context of the company already telling us that it is for supply of the promate assay.

No matter what the dispute is.

The April RNS reads like this. “Ncyt delivered revenue for q1 of £72.6m. Approximately 50% of q1 revenue was driven by sales to the dhsc, predominantly PROmate.”

We know from a later rns that these revenues were then disputed and we did not receive payment. So what? I would suggest that no matter what the dhsc issue is that this follow on order will mean we will at the very least receive payment for that q1 delivered promate. There is clearly no issue with the product. There is clearly no issue with over supply (as they had to buy more 4-5 months later.

That should be a huge positive in people’s minds re the cash position coming out of this year once we resolve the dispute.

Tbh I think AK needs to tell Exxon they will walk away if Exxon does not sort it in very very short order. This is a bar tab sized issue at an Exxon drinks event.

This is not a save issue and we should make sure we dont inherit an unhappy unionised and militant work force.

We hold all the cards. If we walk Exxon are screwed and will be wearing these assets for a very long time.

This company was formed just a few months ago. They have not even reported a single earnings yet. The unscheduled maintenance and downtime occurred in q2 before the new management were even in control of the company. Q3 will see improvement and q4 even better. Then you have tolmount. Anyone that knows or has worked in this business knows the number of fields you bring online perfectly to plan is very few. It’s seriously complicated **** and not just a gas of turning the switch on and hey presto gas flows. The tolmount issues are electrical and not geographical. As such it’s perfectly fixable to ensure the field operates smoothly. And at 20-25k boe net to hbr is a game changer. It will likely increase ebitdax by 25 percent next year.

Also let’s not forget there are HUGE synergies between chrysaor and PMO. The fact chrysaor was PE owned is a huge benefit. They are much more rusthless on cost control and operating with a lower opex per barrel. Those synergies take several months to release and take management time.

Small pieces of the hisar all coming together and we have a huge tailwind from commodity prices. Like truly huge.

The only issue is the market valuation of this entire sector. Historically the sector has traded at 6-8x ebitda and we are now 3-4.5x. I actually think hbr is trading on sub 3x forecast 2022 ebitdax at the moment which is crazy and won’t last. Why is this? ESG in the i stititional investor market means the large buyer of oil names has vanished. The larger funds at many of the huge asset managers cannot now touch oil names. Literally they are orcented mo matter how cheap they look. Dividends are returning though and when stuff starts to trade with 5-10 percent divi yields plus buybacks from free cashflow we will eventually mean revert.

Of all the stuff I won hbr gives me the least stress. This will be 50 percent higher in 6 months and probably double in 12-18 all things being equal.

I like that type of investment.

Son? That’s very patronising. Especially as I am probably older than you…and definitely far more experienced than you.

I reckon I know more about the old premier business and its assets than the guys currently running it. Gained from both a professional and private capacity.

I’m not ramping. Im not a short term spiv. I’m an investor here. And I’m telling you that this will be meaningfully higher over the next 6 months. That’s not a theory. That’s as good as being a fact.

Daily cases 50-60k area within next 2 weeks - die to return to office and school. Already seeing spike in LFT usage volume since mid aug which will accelerate with back to school testing. Recall every positive LFT needs to be confirmed by PCR and instead of pingdemic isolation, contacts will be ad urged to get a PCR.

Daily Cases 100k plus by early October.

My belief is no new hard lockdown measures but will depend on hospitalisations. On current case and hospitalisation trajectory maybe you get 2k hospitalisations a day which is punchy but January was 4k+.

Either way, PCR demand likely to accelerate over next 2-4 weeks quite meaningfully.

Let’s see.

It’s a market makers dream. Just drop the price and you find frustrated sellers. Even when you find a bid/buyer, keep dropping the price and you find more sellers.

Of course, we hat happens is then that any buyers do not step forward as they think it will be lower later today/Tomorrow/next week.

In summary, the market makers have totally destroyed this stock. It’s been easy for them to just keep offering and offering and offering. And they always find shares lower.

Lots of hot air and high level tripe in the original post.

I’m tired of hearing total crap spouted about the hedges. When opex per bbl is 15-16 this year (will reduce to 12-13 post tolmount) it’s really not bad to be hedged at 60. Also have you seen the for ward curve for oil and gas. They are in backward action. The spot oil price is totally irrelevant in the real world. No one… And I do mean NOONE sells oil for physical deliver at the daily spot price as it’s not like selling going to the supermarket to buy bananas. The spot price is just a toy for speculators and day traders to punt. I mean do you think anyone can buy 1 bbl of oil? How about a VLCC full with 2 MILLION bbl if oil. Think about that… do you think that 2 million bbl is sold at the spot price? No. Cos buyers of oil and not so stupid they leave their buying decisions to the daily oil price. Also how long do you think it takes to load that ship? Contract that ship. Move the oil. Offload that ship. It’s a long process and contracted. Hedges work. Hedges provide stability. Hedges are essential for everyone in the downstream and upstream industry.

And where are you plucking that bogus capex number from. They have guide and reaffirmed capex and it ain’t 2-3bn a year. Total capex even after tolmount delay still expected at 1.2bn. So you are 1-2bn off.

Spot on miles. Tolmount itself is 20-20k boe gas net to harbour. At the midpoint thats over 8m boe of gas new production a year for 2022 onwards.

The below shows the current price strip for U.K. gas through 22.

https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5188705

Let’s assume we can realise 80p a therm average for 2022 which is the equivalent of $64 a bbl. opex per bbl prob around $12 so $52 net contribution to ebitdax.

52 x approx 8mboe for the year = most likely 400-450m of new ebitdax for just that field at current gas prices.

Cha cha cha ching.

Oil/olivia/ black gold/ whatever.

Half this biz is gas.

This is the only chart you need to see to understand why this is a buy.

https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5188705&span=2