Member Info for Soder

The drillmax will run 24hrs a day, 7 days a week and given the day rate cost to Exxon it will either be spudding, drilling, logging, casing, plugging or moving to the next location ASAP.

I note the AIS is actually off for the drillmax so we do t know real time if it’s still on location. But given they can do real time logging these days if that was a duster they would be off by now unless they hit drilling problems. Just my opinion.

Herding. Like countless says…that’s aim for you. Financially illiterate dream chasers herding on the bid to get rich quick.

Not sure if them for this buying. But looks like in October sometime that Schroders are back in with 98593 shares at weighted average 264.57p.

Current value 258k

“UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak has announced plans to provide $8.24bn (£6bn) funding for the National Health Service (NHS) to tackle waiting lists and improve technology in hospitals.

This funding is set to be officially announced in the UK’s Budget and Spending Review.

It will be used for diagnostic tests and operations for people who have been waiting for NHS hospital treatment in England due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

As reported by the BBC, around five million people are waiting for treatments, of which hundreds of thousands have now been waiting for more than a year.

Of the total funding, about $2.06bn (£1.5bn) will be used to increase bed capacity, as well as provide equipment and the construction of new surgical hubs, each of which will have four or five surgical theatres to tackle the waiting times for elective surgeries.

A further $3.16bn (£2.3bn) from the funding package will be used to transform diagnostic services…”

Ahhhh a new variant. At least the U.K. are not about to do away with PCR for travel just as the half term holiday bonanza getaway starts and this variant takes hold.

Oh…

Luckily for me:
1. I live in a castle so when we are all back working from home in a few weeks I will be lording it up looking down on peasants from my turret.
2. I own ncyt stock and the government is doing its best to ensure they make up for the dhsc **** up by giving us at least another 6 months of elevated covid sales volume
3. I fit and lean like a prime Peter Andre so even if I do succumb to the new variant I will brush it aside with ease.

It’s a block trade for 5.07m that was done at 200.02p.

That’s 10.1m value and O.5 percent t of the company

Given the share price is below that on screen and it traded above… that should tell you everything you need to know about whether the buyer or seller was more motivated.

This is a buy. It’s someone that wants the stock.

I am not saying a takeover and def not saying anything other than my opinion here….

But the only thing Amazon does it do is clothes. A stretch partnership with someone like boohoo, ASOS etc or anyone would make sense. And both of those stocks have had their asses ripped out the last few months.

Traded at 200.02

Someone ain’t ****ing around.

Let’s say you have 100 of losses you can carry forward to offset against your tax bill

Scenario 1. You have no debt. Your annual earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) are 100. You have no debt and thus no interest charge on your pnl statement so earnings before tax, but after interest (ebt) are also 100. Assuming a hypothetical 20% tax rate your tax bill is 20 every year. You can therefore use your 100 losses to
Offset against your tax bill and for the next 5 years you pay no bill tax.

Scenario 2: you have debt and a cash interest bill of 25 per year. Your earnings before interest and tax (ebit)are still 100. But your earnings before tax are now 100-25=75. Tax rate at 20% means your annual tax bill is 0.2 x 75 =15. You can then offset your 100 loses against this tax bill for 6.67 years.

So by minimising your tax bill. Your tax losses last longer. And guess what you can do with money you borrow? Management it the company to create shareholder value via capex and capital projects that have a greater return (IRR) than the cost of the debt. Even my 5 year old can see that this is better for a shareholder than having no debt and just ****ing your earnings away on tax to the government which has an IRR of two fist fills of **** all. Next.

Oh and it’s even more logical as the U.K. corporation tax rate is 19% versus the coupon on the bond at 5.5 percent. Logic. Logic. Everywhere.

It’s really not that hard. Or am I missing something?

Harbour will use debt to minimise the tax payable in any particular year…. then they will use a portion of their tax losses to offset the tax due. This increases the number of years those losses can be used for as you are minimising the tax due.

How is that not logical. It’s really rather basic.

I can answer that. Optimal capital structure. Miller-Mogigliani….google it.

A company will pay tax off its earnings AFTER interest is paid on ita debt debt. As such having debt provides a significant tax shield and greatly improves the efficiency of any companies capital structure. More importantly for shareholders it boosts the return on EQUITY. Why do you think private equity want to put as little cash equity into a business and borrow as much money as they can when the buy a business? It’s a better cap structure for equity returns.

Let’s focus on unhedged upside for next year….
For 2021 I think guidance is 185-195k a day. Take mid point at 190k. However, we are currently in catch up mode after maintenance deferrals completed and drilling resumed on exiting fields. To be clear we are currently drilling the **** out of many of our assets!!! Drilling on assets where we are the operator is back to pre covid levels and several wells are due online in the very near term. As per the h1 presentation, current production is approx 210k per day. If we maintain that and add tolmount (which is net 20-25k a day) you are looking AT LEAST 230k per day production for next year. AT LEAST. We know tolmount is gassy and when you adjust for this the production split is 50/50 oil and gas.

So 2022 total production is: 360 x 230k a day = 82.8m boe a day. 41.4m will be oil and 41.4m boe will be gas.

We have hedged 19m bbl oil at $61. That is approx 46% of oil production.

We have hedged 25m boe of 2022 gas at 49p a therm. That is 60% of production.

On a combined basis only 53% of production is hedged next year. You can make your own assumptions as to what may be the realises prices on the unhedged portion. But if you take an oil price assumption of 80 a bbl and a gas price assumption of 90p a therm (this is equivalent to $73 boe) then you are talking north of $4bn of ebitdax next year.

Net debt is $2.6bn and the mkt cap in usd is approx $5bn. That gives an enterprise value of $7.6bn and an EV/EBITDAX multiple of 1.9x for 2022.

So you think there is upside? It will min double v v easily if gas and oil hold here.

Will get you the data. 10 mins. More important here though tbh is the 2022 hedge book. Also remember Harbour did not exist until the start of April.

I also think it’s worth reminding ourselves that no matter what you see for front month or spot gas prices that only about 5 percent of the entire gas market trades that way. Unlike oil which you can produce and store until it’s sold, gas is v different. It’s largely a market that operates on long term contracts. Harbour is not unique and n that way. It’s how the market works for gas.

Several brokers have changed their price decks to account for current commodity price reality and curves. As a result Harbour has seen some price target upgrades. Obviously not gospel but FYI….

Canacord 525p
Jefferies 500p
Morgan Stanley 520p
Investec 535p
Stifel 490p
Barclays 600p
RBC 650p
Arden 500p

Great find. Thanks for highlighting.

What’s stoping sales in the US?

There are a **** load of equally capable and equally innovative diagnostics companies doing exactly what ncyt does on US soil.

Cracking the US for any U.K. business as no mean task. Just ask Tesco, next, sainsbury, fergusson…. Plus many more. The list is huge.

The US put Boris’ hot air, bluster and outright ****** to shame. This is how you support your national diagnostics and biotech vaccine industry. Meanwhile ncyt, odx, avacta are sitting ducks whilst our government by Chinese and US company products. Shameful. Lies lies lies.

The US Government is set to purchase additional 180 million rapid Covid-19 tests in a bid to ensure the availability of test kits across the country. The move will involve an investment of around $1bn, Reuters reported. This investment is in addition to the $2bn commitment made by the government last month to procure test kits. In the US, the production of Covid-19 tests is expected to touch around 200 million per month by December.

I saw on Twitter yesterday and apologies if been discussed here already….

Just to confirm that as per their fund filing on 30/9 that pendal group (jo hambro) have added another 340k shares. They now own 950k which is 1.35 percent of the stock.

Getsys also look to have added another 5k in late September. Now own 32.5k.

I think the new contract awards for storage and logistics are clearly for flu season preparation. Not necessarily winterplex tests but if you have flu symptoms you are def going for a plain vanilla covid test.

I am relatively rural south east and so many people have the usual autum cold. It’s not covid. But everyone going for a covid test to confirm it’s not covid.