Member Info for SmartyP1

I believe it’s to fo with our BDO and a few extra hoops that they’ve had to jump through but don’t believe we’ll be waiting to long for a resumption of trading. As stated, would be good to see the PowerPoint presentation pitched at the AGM :)

Agreed re dispersant. Calculating the usage and corresponding depth, leave that for those in the game. Spangle, care to have a crack at that conundrum !

I too can confirm that there’ll be no sp movement today and until trading resumption, must be Mystic Meg too ;)

The suspension gives our Clive a little time to put up the Ops presentation shared with AGM attendees. Not going to shed much additional light to that communicated by the AGM attendees but good to see it regardless and should be released immediately as it’s in the public domain !

Sp next direction ? don’t particularly care whether it’s 3,4,5 or 6p at this juncture. What is fair value for Casper as of today ? We can only base it on prod and assets and the market is saying £76m, early Q1 it was £180m. We know the value of MJF as positioned by our Mr Long, we know the value of the deep assets but none of that is factored in, neither is CE charter or sale. The new find at 802 is unknown until commercialised and any new opps at SY, the same. All I know is that the company is at a marginally higher price than when all the shoite was hitting the fan from Mar20-Sep21 and most of those risks have gone or dissipated at worst. Personally, I see it as a huge opp and those buying last week are going to make money unless there’s something sinister going on that we’re not aware of, I don’t see that. They have the current prod and opps to increase that with shallows and 802 in Q3/H2. Additionally they have the barge cash injection opp and either of these developments sends this north again 802 obviously being the most important from a reserves and sp perspective and if they can’t commercialise 802, their best cos, the credibility will be damaged again . Upside is there for all to see but any downside could be a trading op or cheap reentry point but I can’t see it much lower unless there’s something we’re not being told.

PIs dictate the sp and most of the time, it has no correlation to value. Our Casper now need to step up and deliver that shareholder value they have been promising for x years and kick it off with 142/802 and conclusion of CE deal, multibagging events in current position.

I’m the wotsits. No more excuses, we’re not interested, just improve the comms and provide the facts in a timely mannner so that investors can make informed decisions . Not much to ask is it.

Yep, they stated that accounts expected to be signed off this week but allegedly they’ve been ready for 3 months so ‘expected’ is still out of their control. From my experience with filing accounts post Covid, it’s far more time consuming but hey, we are where we are.

They published the 22 highlight ie 48% in production but then proceeded to regurgitate the excuses.

Lost $18m revenue and profitability from the higher prices BUT that’s old news so why bore us with it. They were getting very high prices as the result of the war so benefitted initially but sanctions and the fact that tax being charged at gross ( pre sanction) prices had meant that they’ve lost revenue but we knew that a year ago ! They had to look for other routes and found another sales routes to mini refineries which is great news, have confirmed they’re still selling at $38 gross and costs/tax still minimal as advised on Friday. Also still achieving $26 from domestic market with minimal costs/tax, the bit that’s missing is the % split which is obviously very important and wasn’t disclosed at the AGM. What they’ve lost is revenue NOT profit unless they’ve lied again. The profit loss was for a very short period pre sanctions. Losing revenue has clipped their wings as they have less cash to play with and to manipulate payment terms so operations have obviously slowed and supply chain delays with new payment terms obviously adding to the woes. They advised us some time ago that they were buying all their own pipes to avoid supply chain so just regurgitating the old info, all very boring !

He’s positioning the difficulties in the AGM statement BUT they continued with the divi strategy knowing that they had tighter cash flow and longer lead times that would slow operations so why did they do it. A take the cash moment and saying that they always planned it doesn’t make it right !! Yep, agree the divi strategy but at the right time, they got it wrong again and that lost cash has hurt together with the operational disappointment.

We know all of the above, we know what’s going to be in 22 accounts and CAB is going to be tight as a result. They’ve been issuing tenders ie 803 on a turnkey basis showing that they’re having to manage cash but thankfully they’re still achieving healthy prices and have the operational and CE cash opportunities hopefully to land in near term but no guarantees there based on last 9 months.

Allegedly Clive was positive re 802 chances at the AGM and expecting a 1000bopd producer so hopefully they can actually land what’s meant to be their best cos target. He also stated that 141/142 are best producing wells to get back online but we’re still waiting. Other wells to be drilled but I suspect at a slow pace as they manage cash.

We all know the historic financial picture, they’re in a far better position now but unfortunately they’re lack of operational success and geopolitical challenges have kicked them

Casper had lost 70% of its value from recent high at yesterdays low of 2.6p. You can argue that the sp was hugely overvalued at 8.6p but not based on what investors knew at the time ie

- Dividends still in play

- 802 a new find flowing open hole at 700-900

- Active operational schedule (alleged) on 141/142/145/153 and maybe A5 and A7

As far as I know, all assets are in play and we need to understand the exact position with each one but we’d lost 70% of value as of yesterdays low, 60% as at current price. A 70% decline would normally imply a catastrophic event within a company but what has happened at Casper ? They’ve lost 400bopd , well actually they haven’t if you look at H2 average of c2076bopd. They’ve suspended the divi and they’ve not been able to get the best shallow producers back online yet as a result of water cut issues. 142 flowed at 1400bopd which was extreme so the big question can they get that snd 141 back online whilst continuing to drill other wells. Add in 802 radio silence and a demise of 70% ?

The assets are all still in play but the question as always, will Casper ever deliver the potential from them. I can’t argue with the operational performance to date, it’s been shocking and if successful they could’ve been a multi billion $ company, the time taken to do that depends on success and they’ve enjoyed little of that. Also can’t argue with their shocking comms and some of their leadership decision making but anybody invested here is still believing that they will eventually create real shareholder value from their asset base.

The big question at 3.4p (£75m m/cap) ‘is there still considerable upside to attain’. It’s hugely irritating that they continue to take a step forward and 2 back or maybe 1 forward 1 back but many still invested here still see the upside and will stay with the journey. They still have the assets and need to manage the cash tightly to deliver that plight. I was never pro Divis until they achieved financial strength to maintain them but it’s done now and payment has probably damaged operational progress.

A bloody nose for Casper over last 9 months, hopefully they’ve learned from it. I’m expecting cash to be tight but they’ve managed with far less and need to prioritise activity on the assets likely to deliver short term income. The barge is a bonus and maybe we get a surprise over the coming, days, weeks and months.

Enough diatribe from me, back to the morphine ;)

Accounts allegedly being signed off this weekend but I don’t know any Auditors that work weekends, especially BDO ! Not concerned about suspension but obviously want to see the accounts with H1 update in detail outside of the operational report presented to AGM attendees yesterday, thst should be in the public domain immediately. Nomad should’ve signed it off pre release at AGM so shouldn’t need sign off.

Boat sale. If there is a delay in receiving funds, imho, they shouldn’t have announced it, sounds like another faux pas by the leadership. They’ve got $15m net from the 24 deal with likely repeat business so why sell it ? unless they retain the $15m too, that’s a different proposition.

They went far too early with the Divis, that’s evident now and the failure to bring in 141/142 compounded the issue. Instead of being honest they kept quiet and buried head in the sand. Their main priority was/is yo build production and that’s what they need to focus on and fo it at the speed that funds allow. KO will mess this up by making crap decisions and he’s the one with the most to lose and I’m sure he knows that.

Charter or sell the barge, that’s always been a bonus and get rid of the $1m annual cost. Worst case they’ve got the Isatay deal in the bag and are producing 2k bopd and allegedly maintaining the $32 net costs before tax but we’ll see clarification in accounts. Wasn’t long ago there was Covid, Riots snd the start of the Ukraine war and the sp Friday is not much higher than it was then when oil prices when international oil prices dropped to $17 at the low and domestic to $6 or less !! Think sone peeps have lost perspective as to current position, they just need to focus on the job at hand ie building production, everything else is a distraction until they build financial strength.

We’re going to see the additional costs from buying kit up front but as far as we know 802 has the required bits, the crew are on site and we’ll know in Q3 whether they’ve stabilised it and hit it to flow commercially. 803 wasn’t planned but they’re drilling it so hopefully that is as a result of the positivity of the 802 well as well as the fact it’s the easiest to drill over A7.

Summary, a very poor 9 months following the excitement of 142 success and almost reaching 4K bopd followed by divi journey and 802 success but yet again they’ve managed to trap defeat from the jaws of victory but the story goes on. Some will see plenty of value down here, the barge cash will obviously transform matters and the Roxi/Casper venture continues and you’re either in the game or its pastures new, certainly not for everyone !!

Tick, tock.

I’ve had feedback on the phone and waiting for another full write up but i won’t steal their thunder. I’m sure the other PIs attending will also give their view on life.

Un,

As I posted earlier the $18m is old news and he’s still banging on about it, using it as an excuse whereas the net profit should be better. It’s the loss of that revenue and how they were using it that is the pain not the profitability. Also the prepayment conditions or shortened payment terms have squeezed them and the increased costs.

Didn’t see the sp ever crashing back the 2ps bit extricating 4m from the bid was another dumb decision knowing what we know now !!

Kheldar,

Bid is much stronger than ask and can sell @3.189 so I suggest a little tick up and hopefully this is truly the bottom or 2.6p !! was. Almost back to the Covid, riots and invasion lows when close to going pop!

Will be interesting to get comprehensive from the AGM attendees.

Depends on content and Q&A Coukd be anything up to 1.5 hours

May be going well, no feedback yet but last chance gor sub 3p has passed o believe.

To AGM attendees. The only questions they could avoid to answer are possibly the financial ones but most of the info has been released so just needs clarifying. All operational info as per questions below, they have to answer but hopefully that transparency is in their presentation.

I suspect that Clive would’ve prepared a presentation on the operational content in the absence of the FY accounts and I believe that those of you attending will have a trading opportunity if the right questions are asked following the presentation. I’m hacked off I can be there as i woukd be pressing hard with all the direct questions. Hopefully the operational detail on the key wells is enlightening and the reality and timing of the $22.5m a possible special divi possible on receipt ?

Disappointed on the divi update as many people will be.

Our Clive does like to regurgitate stuff we already know or thought we did which leads to more obfuscation and several questions at the AGM. Peeps that are going are entitled to ask as many questions as possible, especially on the operational front.

1. Oil production totalled 792k in 2022. We all expected a huge improvement year on year but H2 declined from 414 (2274 bopd)to 376k 2076) in H2. In Q1 23 Cc advised production at c 22-2300 if in fact 802 was flowing at 800 average. We need to understand what flow rates are being achieved from each we’ll inc SY.

2. 802 obviously not flowing and making a statement that the Divi will be suspended until year end unless increased production from 802, 141/142 or that CE payment received. Firstly we need to understand the exact position at 802, no more bull shoite. They were waiting for parts so surly right to assume part(s) on site as crew have been redirected. They stated it will take a further 2 months to complete so we need to understand the issues since it was flowing and the next steps

3. 141/142 out of production for a year. Need to understand true position re water ingress and what parts and timelines to get them back online. Positioning a 6 month timeline to get divis back online does not imply that it’s imminent. What’s happened to 145 work over and 153 ? Based on H2 2076bood, todays position @2k is only a small decline but it’s now time to put more meat on the bone as to exact figures per well.

3. Oil prices received ? We knew that we were losing $18m revenue BUT the net profitability was slightly higher due to MR prices and low costs. Adding this together with domestic, the net prices achieved pre tax should’ve been $32, by my sums, that’s better than where they were since Q3 last year. It’s crucial that Clive articulates the net prices achieved and the current split between domestic and mini refinery. Also what is the net price per barrel achieved v international prices.

4. CAB position at ye 22 and currently. They’ll probably hide behind the fact that accounts are delayed but there’ll have to be another AGM.

5. Block 8 update to DD

6. Rig purchase, pretty irrelevant if they’re not focussing on A block wells

7. If Ce deal concluded, do we get 50@% of the Istamay initial deal agreed pre sale ?

They are citing protracted lead times to supply chain and additional costs, we need to understand affects to net margin.

They have cited the issues re paying the divi but they knew a lot of the info re lead Ines and costs but they pushed forward. They have failed operationally and that has put the squeeze on but the fact they have delayed the divi by maybe 6 months does not intimate that production or CE cash is landing anytime soon. The last update intimated that CE cash could be imminent, whatsthe true position ?

Yep, the morphine dosage definitely causes the ‘snues’ effect !

As suspected, update being left to last knockings. What are the options from here ?

Don’t release accounts and explain why via RNS but that would lead to a temporary trading suspension a la AIM Rule 19. . They haven’t cancelled AGM and to do so tomorrow am would be a disaster so that is unlikely so AGM must be still on. So accounts tomorrow am BUT if there’s a delay for whatever reason, they need to update market tomorrow pre AGM and explain why together with the revised AGM agenda as there will be little to vote on. Never boring with our Casper but we’ll definitely know more tomorrow AM !

At crossed purposes TT. I was talking about release to market, not filed at Compsnues House.

Trotsky,

It doesn’t. Look back at all filings over 16 years. The mean filing date is mid May since incorporation and I believe they’ve only filed in July once or twice.

A bit groggy post op but my 2 penne th. The Auditirs are dragging their feet and sign off not complete or Casper intentionally leaving it to last minute to include more info or giving investors less time to read accounts and roasting Clive at the AGM. Could even delay AGM if accounts not published.

Accountants I’m my experience are far less efficient in auditing and slower and protracted since Covid as they conduct matters remotely as opposed to being on site.

Tick, tock.

K,

Sadly, poor comms have been the Achilles heel of Roxi/Caspian from the beginning. 803 was NEVER planned as you say. One of things you have to live with if invested here, that’s why AGM attendees need to ask the difficult questions :).

Et al,

A few people buying at this level, maybe a little fun into the close ? Was the 500k a buy ?

Current market at 4.01-4.04. The trades today aren’t all sells but below the mid price do will be reported as such. Are we going to see double bottom at 3.95p before bouncing or breaking down. Hopefully not Rumba Bumba, maybe Casper Casper.

See you all at 7am sharp tomorrow or maybe Friday !