Member Info for SmartyP1

Chin up Mike ;)

I see a light breeze on n the horizon with gales to follow, hopefully one that gives momentum as oppose to sinking us !

H1 accounts will be poor but far better than any period pre 22. They will be profitable but CAB will be tight as a result of divi payments and additional B8 costs. We know what the answer is, more prod volume and CE cash. 24 will be stronger as a result of CE rental which could be significant but the sale today is probably preferred.

SP will edge north through September as likelihood of news updates near. No guarantee on the news being positive but there should be enough going on, especially shallow remedial work that could deliver positive outcomes. Just getting 142 back online makes a considerable difference and 153 workover could add to that total. 141/145 ? and new spud at 155, the NJF wells are capable of delivering 4-5k a month but these levels will fluctuate as water ingress needs management hence constant work overs.

There are probably 5 or 6 news items that can materially affect sp over next few months, the deeps and barge the big catalysts to do appreciation.

Interims will be out w/c 25/9 probably and they won’t make great reading as production levels declined by 30% from 22 H2 highs of 3400 bopd and H2 23 will be less unless they sort out MJF/SY. Expecting to see low CAB as they paid Divis and funded Block 8 but they can continue to operate but obviously progress will be slower if cash is limited. The CE sale changes the landscape and gives them options as goes increased production so still all to play for.

Plenty of upside to be had but i for one am getting bored of hearing the sane excuses for deep failure and success at one of the current 5 deep wells sends the sp back to double figures and beyond.

One day Rodney, one day indeed !

The only material news is likely to be CE sale, all other operational activity won’t be at a conclusive stage at this juncture. The sp is likely to edge north through Sept as conclusive operational news is released ie 142 workover and positive 802 news. Maybe A6 if they’ve not started fist SY horizontal but the news that may jolt the sp will be the 100% sale of CE for $45m+. I believe that they are concentrating their efforts on this as it would give them the financial flexibility to accelerate the priority operational activity.

Other news that may push sp on, 153 spud and Block 8 deal but let’s hope that we’ve seen the last of the 2ps.

Somm,

They’re outsourcing 803 as they don’t have the reddies to do it. From cash flow. The 803 tender was one of the first signs of cash pressure. Along with dividend stalling, we’ll all get to see the full story when H1 results out next month.

They’ve been doing the bare minimum in H1 and I believe that we’ll never deliver the ‘expected’ operational schedule in H2 unless they get a cash injection. Not going pop but they’ll hopefully be prioritising those cash generating prospects :)

Well, somebody wants our at this level, 1m dumped. Distressed had enough or thinks it could go lower, who knows ? Probably our Edmund needing the cash for repairs on the Limerick estate !!

Regardlesss, we now know what’s ‘expected’ to happen operationally in H2 but as always, ‘ expected’ gives them the get out.

Hopefully our Benny saw an opportunity with KO and maybe one of the Al Marris needed another Urus or 3.

They’re sitting in oil rich Western Kaz and are one of the few operators not converting exploration and appraisal into production volume. Time is running out on the explo phase so now time to convert one which will transform this company’s fortunes. Something has to change on the deeps and maybe we’ll end up seeing that the geology is too difficult for the Casper team ? Don’t know but they can’t continue pumping cash and coming up with the same result ie heat, pressure and blockages. That’s why I think our Block 8 is important for KO as it gives him other options should BNG price to be a dead duck.

MJF has years of production. That is their lifeline and they need to explore DY as communicated to see if they can build volumes whilst getting MJF non producing wells back online.

I stay invested to see the end of the deep saga whether that be good or bad, the day they turn into a miner, that’s the day I’ll say goodbye !! Next 6 months should see closure on some of the deeps but then again, I’ve been dating that for years !! One day Rodders :)

Hi Mike,

Yep, nice to see some opportunistic buying pre likely news before month end. Value at this level, very much so but many PIs are still feeling a little bruised from the last update. Pays your money as they say :)

Lots of news to come, the big question, will it be positive. Market has priced in the doom and gloom and some ! Only needs a little positive update to get the interest going again.

H1 accounts out at end Sept and I believe it will show they’re poor cash management and leadership decision making. They made the statement that it was their intention to pay Divis and move to quarterly, I believe that was impossible and the accounts will evidence this. Maybe our CC was hoping for better operational results and higher income from production but the decision to move cash to facilitate Block 8 appraisal really grates on me. Maybe the CE sale was well progressed and they could pay Divis if cash landed but you can’t run a business on possible outcomes !

Nowt we can do about that now and to hope that they improve their decision making and communicate effectively going forward. Won’t take much to get this back trending north, 802 success and CE sale being the biggest catalysts but a couple of positive shallow wins would build on the current foundations.

As you say, the downside risk is minimal and the current sp is way oversold based on current fundamentals. Casper have survived Covid, internal civil unrest, Ukraine war fallout and we’re almost at the same price as then ? During Covid, they were running on fumes and had to raise £1m via a Placing to keep the lights on. Dom/export oil prices at sub $6/$20 during that difficult period and production less than current levels. They’re now getting good net prices from MRs and Domestic also increased considerably.

Price is on its arze as a result of PI exhaustion and the retraction of the Divis exacerbated that malaise. Won’t take much to kick it on and enough going on to do that.

Yep, it’s easier but they certainly didn’t fill me with confidence as to success outcome . Cheaper probably but A5 is definitely the most productive deep and not long to complete 300m sidetrack.

Hopefully we get to see a few positive results before year end !

Our Clive is very good with his adjectives, expected and possible being a couple of his favourites. We have the timeline (ish) of ‘expected’ events but my guesstimate for H2 -;

- 802 - but no guarantees of solving issues. We’ve had the coiled tubing on all deeps I believe and nothing to show for it yet

- 142 workover

- A6 perforation - don’t know why they’re doing this ahead of A5 as they have tried different perforations without success, I believe they used stronger explosives but still no success

- 155 spud

- First SY horizontal

- CE deal

Believe all of the above are ‘possible’ and I’d be happy if they achieved those, maybe 141 too. A lot depends on cash and a CE deal would accelerate proceedings.

The fundamentals on Casper are there to see and the only asset being valued is MJF and not even SYelemes. Our Brendan Long has his valuation on P1/2 on MJF, we know that there’s 15m and 26m boe respectively si there’s a lot of oil to be recovered over the coming years. The speed as to that recovery is dependant on their drilling techniques and the horizontal approach has increased volume but has introduced a higher water cut so this new strategy is not without its problems. They were Drilling verticals and delivering c1300 bopd for several years but the new horizontal approach obviously accelerated daily volume but with additional challenges of sustaining it at the 4000bopd capacity they were targeting. The oil is not gone, the MJF cash cow hasn’t gone to the Abertoir, the milking machine has a fault and in the process of rectifying :)

MJF and hopefully any new structure success at SY will continue to be the cash engine for Casper but the daily volumes dictate the income inflow which dictates the spied of operational progress. As I see it, this story continues for years to come and gives them the income to continue to exploit the deeps in Block 8 plus any other ventures/opportunities that pass their way eg mineral exploitation, wind farms etc. We get a handsome pay out if any of the other higher value assets deliver a return, the deep blocks being the most lucrative at this juncture.

They have suffered depletion from MJF production as many wells are offline but they need to prioritise these if they’re to accelerate operational progress on the other assets or the other solution being the CE sale.

802 work continues and we won’t find out news on that til end of Sept probably so next likely news will be Block 8 acquisition, CE sale or a shallow update on one of the wells.

Casper value is dictated by PIs. $250m m/cap a few months ago and now $82m and as far as I can see, all the assets are in play, operational problems continue to plague them and they’ve pulled the Divis as a result. Not going pop, just plodding along til the next material news update and many will see there is real value here but unfortunately most are loaded up and sentiment on a low. Needs new blood and maybe the CR sale or 802 is the key to that door. As always, loads of patience required here but the upside is still intact .

Mr C,

I can agree that it’s been a disappointment for a very long time but a year ago, they had achieved success on 151/153/142 etc, prod at c 3400 (allegedly) and 4000 being targeted. Divis being paid, 802 looking positive and the the wheels have come off AGAIN.

Re using Casper as a vehicle to move cash ? They have sunk over $100m into the drilling effort so I’d say that if they wanted to move cash out, they’d not be throwing it down the deep money pit. Yep, they’ve done the odd sweetheart deal but I’d say the CE acquisition counters that and some.

They’re just not skilled enough operationally or the geology is too complex which is probably a key factor. They could sell the barge and pay a large ‘special divi’. I don’t see that happening and any cash will be spent on the No1 priority, building CASP into a mid sized OE company which will eventually be sold, that’s where KO and co make their money,

I don’t believe A6 is the priority on A block. A5 has shown most promise and is the leading contender for success, I’ve never felt the same level of confidence in A6 inc any discussions with the company.

SY should be a priority to book it in or out. As you say, new structure, new reserves and immediate cash.

Interesting market today. Over 900k unanswered buys and the bid is still weak (ish) at 300k so obviously we have sellers feeding the market or an overhang following latest update. Nice to see some interest down here, let’s hope those buying are rewarded :)

DB,

Yep, ill informed posts but I've used stronger words ! Still waiting to see NYelemes City and maybe the foundations have been washed out hence the need gor the water pump ;) I think BS probably fits the bill but the company have been the worst offender as of late. Pointless looking back and hopefully they've got the message now !

Et al,

Hopefully there's a fair chance that the next news could be positive, whether that be drilling success or a barge sale. The fact that they're selling the barge knowing that they have $15m booked obviously means they're tight for cash and the MJF depletion has exacerbated the issue. As per last update they've done very little on the shallows and they need to fix that and pronto. Drill that SY first horizontal and stop the constant chatter about the possible potential, tile it in or out. These shallow activities aren't expensive and should be priority so why aren't they doing it. Either tight for cash or drilling incompetence, probably both.

Some peeps are buying today, hoping that downside is minimum and positive news on barge is not too far away or they get lucky on 802. Block 8 will probably complete too but we won't see the benefit of that for some time but it's another asset added to the Casper portfolio. The key development will be the barge sale as that gives them the ability to accelerate operations and resume Divis although I suspect that this will be at a lower yield .

Let’s hope the negativity is behind us and good news resumes to restore some well needed credibility .

Share price back on its arze and probably trading in a range from mid 2s to early 4ps. We all know the upside is considerable if they achieve drill success and sell the barge, both likely events in H2. Block 8 transaction, much that it’s flowing down Caspian drilling progress. the Block will add value to Caspian portfolio and the wells did flow at sensible volumes so hopefully Caspian are up to the task to restore volumes whilst drilling other wells.

The CE sale does change the landscape and no one really knows re timings but hopefully at a sensible price and in H2.

Downside risks ? Further depletion at MJF and the geopolitical risk. They can fix No 1 by prioritising the shallow drilling targets that will deliver income quickly and hopefully they get lucky with 802 which was meant to be the best COS, doesn’t say much for Shin and team if it’s another ‘potential winner but need to do better next time ! ‘

Serious money to be made from here. SP jumped to 8.6p on expected production increases in the first deep and the divi program. We all know that sp can jump rapidly and they still have the assets to do it. The big question remains, are they capable.

They wouldn’t have made up the barge sale ! what they didn’t do was check proof of funds probably. The last thing they’d have wanted was to announce a deal which was going to result on more egg on face. They have hot form for announcing and non completion, the BOCO deal was an example of that.

They certainly have messed up over the last year and such a disappointment, especially as things were looking so good . The 142/141 failures started the tot but instead of coming clean and updating the narket, they continued to pay Divis when they weren’t financially strong enough to continue to pay them. Also, to loan cash and equipment for the Block 8 venture, knowing that they were going to put pressure on cash flow ! that was very poor decision making. Yep, KO and co may have taken £3m of Divis but to jeopardise the progress of Caspian ??

They probably thought that the production would increase from the shallows, that 802 would flow or they had a CE sale on the bag but now that none of materialised, it’s going to impact the speed of operational progress.

Many shareholders are not happy with how they conducted themselves over last few months, especially with the shoite communication but if they don’t change their approach, then their just going to get grief and loads of it.

Several investors have said KO would take it Private, that’s nonsense as they have £16m of liabilities and if they tried to do it, they’d fall foul of the regulatory bodies and probably lose licences. Just look at 3AB and Total and same thing would happen here.

Our KO needs Casper to succeed but they need to prioritise the income generating activities now. I thought they could wait for the CE charter cash next year which is great income with more to come probably but it’s obvious that they need cash now to accelerate activities on the ground, without it, progress will be slower.

Generating c $1.65m a month from MJF and they’re fortunate to have the MR income as that’s more lucrative as a net income than Urals @$100 gross. Domestic price increases have helped too and you can see from the ‘Going Concern’ commentary in the accounts that they have measured in place to ensure they continue trading.

The assets are still there, they’re in a far better financial position than they’ve ever been historically but they’ve now got to change their drilling success rate to build the cash or the barge sale will be imperative to fund the operational effort.

Morning Mike,

I’m only one shareholder but it was time to get some transparency and more importantly, to continue to get it going forward. People say PIs can’t effect change, I know they can and there are many large shareholders that should be doing the same. It’s critical that we get clear, concise, detailed comms, no more obfuscation or PIs will cause trouble and they can but as stated before, that’s not going to help us unless we want to push to change the board etc. The issue does not lie with CC, he’s the messenger, time for KO, Aibek etc to be very clear as to what is communicated !!

Todays news was shoite and PIs needed to know as otherwise what the hell are we investing in. 802 was flowing at 700-900 bopd when now we know the truth. CE was sold waiting for cash but now we know the truth. 141/142, going to bring them online and reach our 4K bopd target but that’s BS and now we kniw the truth.

It’s critical that they are open with comms going forward, if they’re not then they will get grief from all angles so hopefully the message has hit home. They should communicate effectively via RNS, it shouldn’t take unhappy PIs to flush it out !!

Not going pop but they now need to focus on operations that will generate cash quickly .

Questions are up on company website and truth needed to be flushed out. We need honest communication, we’ve not been getting it and I and many others were fecked off with being kept in the dark, at least we know where we are today and stops all the BS, hopefully more transparency going forward. If PIs don’t ask questions, we won’t build any relationship with the company and they’ll continue feeding us shoite, that has to stop and now.

Only good news I see from todays update. Oil sales prices are healthy and split to domestic/MRs too. They still have the CE but it was likely that the deal had fallen through. They are fortunate to have the MR sales outlet as without it, cash would be tight and operations shelved. Time for them to prioritise income driving activity only as everything else is a waste of time inc Block 8.

BM,

Volume tiny but nice to see buying, good luck to those who’ve added a few. News Monday am ? If so, hopefully positive as it would make for a good meeting but this is Casper so anything is possible .

They have to answer questions so hopefully a few to answer that give us clarity on a few matters. Will it mean they need yo disclose via RNS ? who know but not long to find out.