Member Info for SmartyP1

Another unsuccessful year for our investment. Started with so much promise at 4.5p moving to 8.7 with anticipation of continued drilling success and dividend payments. Snatched defeat from the jaws of victory and now we finish the year down 45%, a very poor performance.

Alas, it’s not in the penny graveyard thanks to many factors but the key 2 are the continued production at MJF and the oil price recovery.

One thing they have to fix is the drilling performance as without success our Casper will just bumble along. They have more assets to exploit than at any other time since incorporation in 2007. 5 deeps already drilled, found oil at all bar the A8 well on Airshagyl but no cigar yet. 2 additional wells in progress at A7 and 803 or soon to be in progress at A7 when G70 rig tested, the most powerful rig that can drill the 5000m depths. Add in Block 8 wells that have been drilled, being tested and we await results. That’s 7 wells drilled, 5 in remedial mode, 1 being spud shortly, 1 in progress and 2 B8 wells awaiting results !

Add in the shallows at MJF/S Yelemes plus the new horizons they’re targeting on Yelemes block ! If Yelemes is successful it will add well needed production and reserves.

Then there’s the CE that hopefully will add continued large chunks of income with first landing this year .

SP is 2.5p, m/cap £56m but this is 50% discounted from current NAV based on MJF/SY only. This is one of the biggest multi bagging opportunities on AIM. The key as always is drilling success but there aren’t many stocks out there if any that will drill multiple deep and shallow wells in 24. They’re funded to drill all of them this year, do the remedial work and any success on the deeps sends this stock flying. Been saying it for years but they’ve never had so much to go at, funded to do so without dilution with CE cash to help fund that continued journey .

All down to Shin and his team as always but surely his bad run can’t continue, if it does then they have to change strategy, get rid of him or bring in people who know what they’re doing.

Is 24 going to be Casper’s year, I sincerely hope so.

Happy and PROSPEROUS New Year to all Casper shareholders, especially the LTHs :)

Obviously had their reasons, each to their own. Year end, could be forced spread net position ? or just had enough of serial disappointment. Stock was very well bid after a strong day yesterday so easy to offload .

Well, I was hoping for another update this week but if we were to get one then I’d have thought today. They’ve stated that they’re testing B8 so regardless of regulatory position, they know the status so let’s see the update . I expected that together with sone corp activity but looks like it’s 24, yawnnnn. Let’s hope it’s positive with 142 .

Posted this on ADVFN, sums it up for me.

1.4m traded and buys to sells at 850 v 550 yet sp down 20% ? Market was very well bid yesterday and you could’ve sold 900k at close of play. We either have a seller (s) in the pipe today as the sp doesn’t make any sense at all. Yes the news detail is not what we wanted to see but the NAV v SP is a joke. We’re price to go under and yep, sentiment/trust is poor but the facts are that this is oversold. Much that comms are poor, there are positives and this is a trading opp for those with appetite for risk. We’re almost back down at Covid levels when running on fumes and prospect of liquidation was a reality. Today it’s a completely different picture -;

2000 bopd (approx)

Higher achieved net oil prices being achieved

Possible higher prices as international export opportunity a possibility

6 wells in operational phase now

Barge contract cash to land in 24

It will take very little to kick this on and any drilling success does that. Block 8 wells are drilled and being tested, what is going on ? Now drilling 803 deep, A7, new horizon at 142, first SY shallow horizon spudded, there’s 6 wells in progress !!

The optimist in me is hoping that there’s corporate activity on the go and they’re waiting for a positive result on B8 wells before updating market. God knows but something has to give at some juncture !!

GWM,

You won’t find a listed share where any CEO has as much skin in the game as this one ! Almost 50% held by the Orazimans and I’m sure they’re more p*ssed off with lack of progress.

What is going to kick this forward ? only one thing, success with the drill bit. The sp is undervalued v NAV but nobody’s listening as they don’t trust the leadership and that’ll only change when they deliver good news and communicating accurately and effectively !!

Et al,

This is a huge trading opp at this juncture if you believe that they will deliver any positive news. They have immured to include news in B8 ? They were testing so not to update us is withholding news. I have written to CC to state that fact together with other omissions. I want to know the facts not to be kept on the potting shed, continually being fed shoite !

We’re now being priced to go under, almost back to Covid levels where they were running on fumes. Today they’re in a far stronger position. More oil being produced than the 1300bopd average where the net oil prices achieved were less. They have the CE cash coming although I’m starting to question that and they have so many assets that ‘could’ generate oil.

Sentiment on its arze, only thing changing that is positive drilling news and we have 6 wells + on the go ie 142 new interval, 141 ? Block 8 2 wells, now South Yelemes horizontal, 803 and A7. That is a VERY busy operational schedule and normally we’d all be hyping the potential but we’ve been here before too many times and the trust is not there, they have to change that !

Loads of opportunity but can these clowns deliver the goods ??

i don’t really know what to say after that . it’s like the orator is schizophrenic or been on the **** the last week and has got out of bed late to pen this note !! this does not follow on from the last operational update and they are doing what they want to do.

from what we know from that update ;

bad news

142 is duff after producing 1400 bopd and the company praising shin and his team.

ok news

prod continues at 2000 bopd approx. why not give us the exact number, you’d have to do that for the accounts !

803 spud

sy horizontal started

barge contract, ce being prepared for q3 start and now $10-15m ? and why not earlier when n caspian is i’ve free

oil maybe able to be sold internationally as prices improved, i don’t get that ?

no news

block 8 ??

155 spud

airshagyl side-tracks

it’s as if cc is being fed info by shin and he’s not sticking to the program, shin that is who i believe is not fit for purpose.

corporate activity ? lack of detail makes me think so but difficult to analyse probably when comms are this poor.cc communicated they have a fair bit on but is that him personally, if so it’ll be corporate activity but impossible to say as we’re always guessing.

there are some positives as stated above and they’re still producing 2000 bopd and maybe able to sell oil internationally, the ce cash is coming in and they can continue to operate without dilution but we won’t get rich unless shin delivers with the drill bit.

It’s good to see a few buys, peeps probably trading the imminent news, good luck with it. Bid is very strong at 700k @2.63, better prices for small amounts but maybe a little run pre news. Hopefully it’s the Kazak oilers spending their Xmas bonus on good ole Casper !

Well, last knockings it is and we’ll know this week what progress or lack of it they’ve made in the last 7 weeks. PIs have given a clear message re regular news updates whether good, bad or indifferent and I find it very difficult to understand that there has been nothing to report on since last operational update.

I reread the IP this morning and I still believe that corporate activity is in process, what that us ? , we’ll know soon enough. Are they selling the barge, raising funds, acquiring acreage, negotiating a farm in, considering a takeover, new listing etc, could be anything.

The current sp is more than underpinned by current production and assets but as stated, very few PIs are buying that currently. They are now trading their own oil which is significant as it generates very healthy revenue/profit but they are trading carefully as there is a funding requirement. Oil prices have declined over the last couple of months to low $70s but now back at $ 80 but we don’t know how that’s affected the net receipts from current sales to domestic/MR markets.

We’re due news on 3 wells, spuds, side-tracks and corporate activity probably and we need a comprehensive update this week.

A CE sale would inject cash and may facilitate resumption of divi program but I would be against that as $15m charter chunks whilst retaining the asset looks like a far better deal unless the sale price was too good to refuse.

Next update of Caspian news is upon us, hopefully it’s detailed with the absence of Carverspeak. Fingers crossed :)

It is disappointing that we are still waiting for news at this juncture. Kaz Independence Day hols next Mon/Tues so probably going to get the last knockings announcement pre Santa visit. Value v sp is irrelevant at this stage as the trading volume has fallen off the cliff. I can harp on about being undervalued but until they stop the run of poor drilling results, sentiment stays low as does trading volume. All I know at this juncture is that there is a fair bit on but we knew that anyway and CC is hopeful of an upturn in fortunes come year end. A fair bit on could involve Clive and sone corporate activity or maybe he was referring to his Xmas preparations ! Very difficult to remain bullish, that will only come with good news and hoping that the news delay is down to continued flow testing versus problem management.

Let’s hope all shareholders have some really positive news next week, something that is long overdue and sets us up nicely for 24 :)

Belles,

Anyone would be mad to invest here unless the rewards weren’t extreme. Only investors who saw a 10 bagger were those that exited after the original A5 spike back in 2014 !

They have the assets but up to now, lack the skills to convert the opportunity. If and it is an ‘IF’, they could convert A5 as the first well on A block, the ensuing hype and sp reaction would be off the charts. That’s assuming that there’s no success at B8 but we have no idea as to the reserves there if any. Airshagyl is the biggest opp from what we know today and I hope they get somebody in to convert it. We’ve all seen the flaring footage and allegedly flowed for 15 days but as always, that’s Caspian comms that are flaky at best.

We live in hope knowing that the rewards are there but the risks are there too.

Contd -;

This is still a 20 bagger + from these levels and it will only take our first deep success to send this into silly season.

One day Rodders, tick, tock :)

Posted this on ADVFN. The sp is almost back to Covid/Riot/War levels where the risk to Caspian was the highest. Initially saved by the Ukraine war as oil prices retraced from the $17 low ! and a time where Caspian we’re only receiving $6 for domestic or less. The geopolitical risk has diluted as Russia has enough on its plate but the imperial desires of our Putin will continue but we still have a few years before he starts looking at neighbours who weren’t entirely supportive of his conquest (s).

So at 2.6p our m/cap has crashed to c $55m and that is discounted from fundamental value based on the shallows only. They are/will generate c $25m pa from the current 2000 bopd dependent on oil pricing obviously. There is recoverable oil for at least 15 years yet the m/cap is $55m ? No value for CE or any of the deeps inc the latest acquisition ie Block 8. Allegedly we have found oil at all of the wells drilled with only one P&A at A8. They have the asset portfolio to send the sp on a multi-bagging journey but do they have the skills to deliver it themselves ? That is a question they need to answer very quickly because as of today, they’ve sunk well over $100m with zero return from the deep campaign. They have to decide to bring other players in to see if they can turn it around, not to do so is madness.

They managed to flow A5 at healthy volumes for c 15 days, that would’ve galvanised their conviction that the oil is there and the 100s of millions boe are within reach. Sadly after many side-tracks they have come up empty handed so something has to change. Same at B8, if they fail there then it’ll compound the fact that they can’t deliver so let’s get somebody else in and share the spoils.

As of today, we are back in delayed news mode. Last update intimated that test results on B8 wells and 142 were imminent, that was 6 weeks ago. Maybe it’s more problems and excuses, maybe they’re successful and flowing the wells but history clearly shows that it’s probably the former.

Personally, I believe that there will be some positive news in next RNS. Probably a mixed bag and anything positive will stop this downtrend. They have the CE cash for next year which is a considerable sum of money and if they continue to produce the paltry 2000bopd, they will turn over c$40m next year, that’s without any drilling success whatsoever yet the m/cap is $55m. Hugely oversold imo but it’s the PIs that dictate the price as they are the only ones trading it. 15% of the shareholder base dictate the sp and sentiment/credibility is surely lacking as of today. Sp should be 5p+ as a minimum today and we all know how things can change with a little success. The long term investors will be jaded and cynical of this investment but the newbies with a non trainers outlook will have a different view.

We’re long overdue some success, we still have the assets and the funds to exploit them, helped by the CE cash so we’re still in the game.

We know that there’s a fair bit on the go operationally and that news is well overdue, pardon the pun. They committed to update investors when news is available so one can only assume that as of now it hasn’t been or they’ve returned to their old ways. Personally, I believe that we get some positive news to lift sp and investor spirits. Let’s hope it’s a Christmas. Cracker not a Einter Stinker.

Next week Clive please :)

Somm,

If he did that would be inside info and the ship isn’t leaky. I questioned Shin’s competence and also the weakness in the executive leadership as not enough Director representation and when the NED was being assigned. I asked about DR if something happened to KO etc, it is something they need to address.

No news on flow tests but stated that there was a fair bit on and hopeful of an upturn in fortunes pre year end. You can’t take anythi g from that as we’ve been hoping for an upturn for ages !

As stated, I sense we’re going to get a mixed bag and corporate activity ? we’ll know soon enough.

It’s Indeoendence holiday in Kaz on 18/19th Dec so I’m hoping we get news next week and not the following as that would probably be a Winter delay special.

Hi Mike,

I still know of 7 holders that hold in excess of 40m shares and that doesn’t include you or any other larger holders. If larger PIs wanted to dump then I’m sure there is a conversation to be had with HQ. They managed the Al Marri overhang but would have to sit outside WCP. I’d be interested in picking up cheap stock but the Mrs now gets to see all banking transactions. Flippin technology, alerts flash up on the smartphone. Told her to delete the notifications as it’ll spoil her Xmas present surprises ;)….lol

Each to their own but anyone dumping here ? I have more than enough but I believe that we will get sone positivity in next update that will start the journey northwards .

I’ve had comms with CC but not much to contribute. He made the statement that there was a fair bit going on but we know that but would not be drawn on news timing or outcomes obviously. As stated I sense that there’s some corporate activity going on in background. At least there’s a fair bit of activity going on but we’re in the dark until RNS but hopefully with sp much on the go, there’s a hope that we may get some positivity.

850 v 250k in favour of sells and still the bid is 125k. Next stop is down as peeps are getting concerned as a result of news delay. This is oversold but peeps aren’t buying it regardless of fundamental value. MJF/SY is being priced at £57.5m (m/cap) and there’s 15-20 years more recoverable oil and currently generating c£22m pa. There’s nothing priced in for any of the other assets inc the CE.

Investors are frustrated with the lack of drilling success but all invested know it’ll take very little success to turn this around. I stay invested whilst MJF and CR cash is continuing to fund the operational process without dilution and surely something has to give soon.

This is a huge trading opp for those who are that way inclined as we know it will bounce as the drilling process continues and the CE cash is on its way next year with more to come. 24 is going to be a very active year on the deeps/shallows and CE cash and no divi cash drain means they should have a busy year. Whether that’s successful or not, that’s another question.

Nice to see sone volume this am with a couple of larger trades. A 500k sell and 250k from peeps with contrasting views. The company committed to update the market when news due so I can only assume that’s there is no news to impart at this juncture. If that’s the case then they must be still testing the existing wells or dealing with challenges within that process but haven’t got to a conclusive newsworthy status as of yet.

As stated I think there’s something going on in background, some sort of corporate activity but that’s pure speculation. I believe next news will be another mixed bag but more positive than negative. One thing we don’t want is the ‘excuse/delay’ winter special.

DD,

As long as it’s positive, I’m happy to wait ! I think we wait a little bit longer .

the ce has probably turned out to be our best asset from a profitability perspective,if capable of delivering $15m+ pa on drilling contacts, almost as much as the mjf/sy current production combined.

we should’ve had news by now. 142 if successful, will be contributing to production as communicated in the last rns but maybe they want to test it for longer and not get egg on their faces following the last brief success before water ingress problems or it could be another **** up !

a5 sidetrack should’ve started too but they need the b8 rig so should’ve had news there too.

also 155 spud but the key news is about production growth so hopefully 142/b8 wells are adding to that and we’re not going to get the depressing winter special ie mothballing ops due to weather and supply chain issues.

long overdue some good news pre xmas, i suspect all invrstors would agree !! :)