Member Info for SmartyP1

God my typing is awful. Need a visit to spec savers !!

Another 6 weeks elapsed and news is imminent. Good, bad or indifferent ? One thing is for sure, we need positive news with the drill it, that’s the priority. Q1 (weather dependant) is planned to ge a very busy period operationally so hopefully regular news flow. We won’t get B8 news but will be good to understand where we are with the regulatory process. 142, 805.155, 803 progress updates and maybe A7 spud ?

Other ? corporate activity outside B8 acquisition ? They’re not flush with cash until CE cash lands but Will CE infesting to see whether there’s anything significant going on.

Hopefully update in early Feb and maybe we see some trading activity as news bears ?

Yawwwwnnnnn

Caspian is getting stronger financially providing the CE cash lands and profitability not affected by the new underwater beach !!

The oil trading element is substantial, adding revenue and profitability so that is helping.

The key as always is oil production so maintaining the 2k bopd is obviously important but hopefully they can add to that with 141/142/255 and maybe additional reserves from SY ?

I did find it strange that they updated the IP together with the new Auditor announcement. 3 months have elapsed so could be wrong. Our Benny picking up the Al Marri overhang, maybe the mineral venture is on the cards ?

They can build a business that has shallow production, trades its own oil and has additional income from the CE BUT we’re all here for the the deep success. B8 currently producing at 110 bopd, the latest wells are drilled on 2 new structures but surely they’ve had oil shows during drilling as why test so hopefully we’re going to get lucky. The big reserves are at A Block but that is pricing a tough but to crack but A7/A5 are the priorities to sort asap.

NY deeps. 802 was meant to be the easiest target with the highest COS but 803 in progress so maybe that’s the first deep on that block to add to B8. Why ho through the regulatory hurdles on B8 if it’s a duffer ?

Still all to play for and I believe the bottom is in and 24 will see shareholder value creation but the magnitude depends on the deeps.

You feeling left out CC….. lol.

As you know the ship isn’t leaky but the Oct announcement was leading imo as stated many times.

Block 8 status ? I suspect peeps are correct re testing ie regulatory approval before news so we stay in the dark til then.

I did ask the question re the new Isatay underwater beach we’re on the hook for but response is that it’s not their liability but will confirm.

News timing ? 142, SY, 803 all need updating so sooner than later :)

I was expecting a far more comprehensive in December following the 31st October update. The October update advised of our new Accountants/Auditors and also they released a new IP. Clive also advised a lot on but no more detail to add to that statement. I was expecting to see a comprehensive update and suspect some corporate activity on the go but not sure what. Don’t think it’s a fundraiser as they have the barge cash coming in so could be another acquisition ? JV or Farm I’m ? another listing ? The combined Auditor/IP release just smelt of touting our wares but maybe I’m off base.

Re news timing. I suspect that we get news soon, probably early Feb and hopefully it’s comprehensive.

Back to the potting shed .

The CE is designed to operate in 2.5-5.5m and according to the article the contractor ie Caspian is required to build the base so there’s obviously a significant cost there and that’s probably why the initial profitability has reduced. 111m x 40 x 2.5, that’s a lot of pebbles. Hopefully the contract runs over as intimated and that they’re successful as that will probably be the catalyst to a sale .

Add the key catalyst to demise, withdrawal of Divis as a result of the 142 failure following the 1400bood announcement. Also the failure to sell the barge.

Block 8 ? The extract from 31/10 RNS stated wells completed snd preparation for testing. That was 3 months ago and you could argue that they’re waiting for regulatory approvals but I’d have thought that they’d have announced results. All CC needed to state was that results would be released following approvals and contract completion.

The barge deal looks like it’s going ahead although I do find it strange that they’re drilling in Q3 when the N Caspian is likely to be ice free in April. You’d have thought they’d be maximising the ice free window, giving enough time to do appraisal work if first well successful. With a bit of luck, the CE could be the best deal they’ve done to date. $10-15m profit is huge for Caspian but PIs aren’t buying it yet.

Block 8

Shareholders are reminded that the option to acquire Block 8 has been exercised with the timing of completion now largely dependent on the usual regulatory approvals.

Drilling at the two deep wells undertaken by CTS, the Group's wholly owned drilling subsidiary, has been completed with both now preparing for testing. Success with these wells, once the Block 8 acquisition has completed, could also significantly add to production levels.

Volume is negligible and todays volume showing a red picture and next move down. Personally I don’t get it as this is a buy down here BUT as always, each to their own. Maybe a few chunky credit car bills following an exuberant online Xmas shopping spree, who knows

Doing the maths, Casper will generate more than $40m in 24 if we assume CE cash is landing and prod remains static. Other revenues ? maybe a few more million if project runs over as intimated or additional charter/sale dependant on success/failure. Maybe if they succeed, maybe we could utilise ENI’s drilling team !! Profitability this year likely to exceed $20m and current m/cap c $70m ??

Tick, tock.

Just been looking at the Interim and FY accounts over he last few years and it definitely tells a story and shows how the company has transitioned from debt laden and loss making to a profitable position but the sp has tanked regardless of that transition.

Historic production was c1300bopd for many years, you can see the records from Toggle’s stats. The oil prices were also far lower affecting revenue and profitability yet Caspian continued with their operational plans, running on fumes. 22FY was their best year as they had success with 142 which took prod to c 3500bopd (short lived) and the Ukraine war pushed Brent to $100+ pre sanctions. Revenue and profitability up but had to write down the 3AB investment affecting profitability.

23 interims were positive from a profitability perspective due to continued MR sales and higher domestic pricing but revenue reduced as a result of sanctions. Trading their oil is a welcome benefit that will add Rev/profitability going forward. Cash is down as a result of divi payments and the B8 investment but they’re going to be far more profitable in 24 as a result of CE charter(s) and the non payment of Divis.

2024 could see revenues of $40-$50m based on the current prod of c2000bopd so hopefully they can build on that and maybe export sales are achievable too. One thing is for sure, profitability will be up with CE cash and we should be seeing NP of over $20m this year, that’s higher than FY revenues in most years since 2007. None of this is being translated into shareholder value creation ie the share price BUT the realisation that they’re profitable and funded to continue operations will sink in at sone point, added prod volume will probably be the catalyst.

This is a buy at these levels but I’ve had too many ‘rude not to ‘ moments and any of my spare pennies has been going into the HBs ie VTY/BDEV snd TW. Looking for steady divi payers and some cap appreciation but the likes of Casper are the life changing investments/punts that could add that little bit of excitement IF they converted a deep. Peeps have forgotten initial A5 excitement, many invested today probably weren’t around but if they convert 1 deep, the hype in this stock will be off the scale. Investors are tired of failure but this is now a punt where the odds are in our favour. Never guaranteed but we’ve all bought tickets for the Kazakh lottery, will it be our year this year ? I flippin hope so.

Oil going to pop as a result of continued Red Sea probs, $90 coming and will pullback if Gaza ceasefire agreed.

Surprised that we didn’t see buying on Friday foliwng CE charter confirmation. I believe the deal was at serious risk of being cancelled, nothing new for Caspian but it’s important cash with more likely to follow.

News this week ? if so, a positive set of drilling results please Clive ;)

Oil approaching $84 as Red Sea saga continues. ICJ decision today may lead to ceasefire in Gaza and maybe an end to hostilities. Oil will obviously reverser but currently the oil surge is ongoing. There will be other crises and I don’t see oil reversing anytime soon.

That is really good news and reiterates CC’s last update at $10-15m profit. That’ll be a big chunk of cash and ensures that they can deliver the the active operational schedule planned for 24. Maybe they’ll need the barge for longer if successful and will probably buy it eventually :)

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/eni-readies-exploration-well-near-kazakhstan-s-largest-offshore-field/2-1-1588195

Good find by NN on ADVFN. Hopefully the project is happening as planned, I was starting to worry that it would be another c*ck up !

Oil back above $80 as a result of Houthi tit for tat continues

Can’t believe that we’re back at these levels. 75% down from last years high following divi withdrawal. Had my fair share of ‘rude not to moments’ but I have more than enough and now it’s about time we see a return before it becomes an inheritance planning stock ;)

Adrianz,

Rev declining since they went MR/Domestic sales route but net profitability up.

As you say, we tolerate their poor comms as the opportunity is still in play but we shouldn’t have to. The big miss is drilling success and if they change that, they have more to talk about and more regularly. Memories will be short and it’s the LTHs that carry the scars, the newbies won’t give a stuff. Time for them to reverse that bad run of form !

Very difficult to feel the love when there’s no love to feel. They made a commitment at the AGM to update when news available but looks like they’re back to doing their own thing. They have committed to answer shareholder questions and I took that opportunity pre AGM but it shouldn’t need investors to push for updates. The really material news due is from B8 and 142, everything else is ‘in progress’ ie spudding or drilling ahead. They have communicated the activity plan and it’s comprehensive for 24 but shareholders aren’t buying it as comms are inconsistent and results are poor.

We all know it’ll take very little success for this to spark back to life but very difficult to be optimistic when in the dark. We can go into excuse mode eg weather, supply chain etc but it is frustrating. We should be upbeat re the drilling program, CE cash and possible corp activity but we’re not as a result of the divi faux pas and the lack of drilling success. All about success with the drill bit so until that happens, we bumble along in the dark.

DD,

Let’s hope any buys are priced to be shrewd. Back to prices not seen for 18 months pre the run to 8.6p when everything was starting to look positive but ole Casper does what it’s best at, snatching defeat from those victorious jaws !! 73% drop from the latest high ??

News must be imminent on 142 and B8 wells, the latter being well overdue. Oil prices are trading between the $70-80 range, currently $79 as a result of the geopolitical situation and who knows where it goes next, suspect the Houthi challenge is key to next move. As long s Casper are producing 2k bopd then there should be enough cash to continue Ops and CE cash will help, if it lands as communicated !

Hopefully our Shin is going to get something right and sone of the drilling news is positive .

Https://www.accuweather.com/en/kz/aktau/224630/january-weather/224630

Looks positively barmy to me. Only thing that’s cold is the news or lack of it. Allegedly a lot on so plenty to report on. Hopefully they’ll remember Block 8 next update.

Hi JG,

Let’s hope it really is our year in 24. Sooooo many false dawns, we’re long overdue a change of fortune :)