Member Info for SmartyP1

It is now time to deliver and no more adding family titbits until they convert some of the existing portfolio. The WS deal could be anything but we don’t need it at this juncture, focus all efforts on the existing assets and then if the cash rolls in, pick the right acquisition assets, preferably not linked to the KO clan !

Allegedly they have interested parties for MJF/SY and the CE charter project planned for early Q3, less than 3 months away. Both of these deals are ‘significant’ events that will create substantial cash inflow so why buy assets now. They’ll argue it’s a deal at these prices (my boy !) but we’ve yet to see a return from B8/CE or 3AB.

No more assets, instead, spend every S on existing wells and either convert or sell them to another party. It’s a classic case of poor priority management. What are the priority tasks ? List them in order, allocate budget and focus on them ONLY. Not to do so is madness and they have to stop this hokey kokey style of management, disorganised at best.

Needs 2 new NEDs and I would urge all investors to make that point to Mr Carver. Pointless binning Clive a la Limerick as then we are really up shoite creek. Whilst I type this note, the Special General Vote by 19/4 has popped into my mailbox and it’s important that you make your opinions known. We need those impartial NEDs and Caspian have to do it as part of regulatory procedure.

Back to priorities , what are they ?

Deeps

Complete 803

Complete A5 sidetrack

Obtain licence and test 2 wells drilled

Maybe finish A7

Obtain production licence

Shallows

Either build production or cell them for £100m+

Barge

Charter or sell

There is enough there to send the sp flying north and every spare $ needs to be spent doing this. Stop the distractions, fulfil these tasks and STOP the smoke and mirrors. Next few months will be defining for this company and all invested !!

Well, it’s certainly not boring as of late with our Casper. I’m not a fan of today’s announcement and can’t see why they’re doing it now by issuing 200m shares and 10% dilution ? Why not wait until CE cash hits or see the conclusion of any BNG shallows deal first and avoid dilution ? Not saying that this may not work out in our favour but I for one have had enough of sweetheart deals but no way to tell here as this is acreage that hasn’t been explored yet. Yes, Shalva has C1 of 5m boe and c 400bopd but West Shalva is another punt, moreover it’s being bought from Bolthazan hence the Waiver meeting. It could be a successful venture but as some have pointed out, it’s an IF not a when. We’ve already purchased 3AB through a dilutive share issue and written that loss down. The CE another deal done through equity dilution although we can argue that the barge is more valuable than the deal done BUT it better start earning its keep otherwise it will be seen as a white elephant.

My question is ‘why do it now ?’ If these are the development assets that BNG shallows cash could be used for then so be it but let’s get the cash in pre any deal, there’s no need to do it now ? We have enough assets and the priority is proving up the deeps. Use the CE cash to assist with funding alongside BNG shallows and avoid dilution. If any deal onBNG shallows is that good then fantastic but wait for that before jumping on new acreage. Must be another B8 or 3AB situation where licences need to be approved and risk of losing licences maybe ?

Let’s get on with the proving up of BNG, drill A5 and 803 and then take stock. The CE cash will hopefully land and then take a view on West Shalva. Currently I won’t be supporting any deal but I don’t believe our vote counts anyway .

Somm, re BNG shallows deal being significant, I sincerely hope you’re right and I’m wrong. If there was a lucrative deal, why not wait til it’s done ?

Un/BM,

Re tax theory and buying back in, that depends on what price shares where sold and whether the seller(s) want to buy back in at a loss. If we take Mr £500k as an example, selling out at 4p, maybe to book profits or who knows , maybe taking a CGT loss ? If he/she/they want to buy back in then they are winning as they can buy in cheaper at current prices. Those looking to book a CGT loss below 4p may not be so inclined to buy back and will probably be hoping for a continued retrace before buying back.

New ISA allowances are now allotted and we’ll probably see some BNIsa action for those with shares in their trading account that want to move them into their ISA but that won’t move the price as the stock is already bought.

Somm,

Re BNG shallows sale value, I think you’re getting carried away with valuations. Current carry value is $53.7m from the last accounts and much that Clive is intimating that offers are significantly higher that this value, I don’t believe that would mean multiples of but very happy to see your $200m but I doubt that’s the number. If they do sell it, I hope they receive a minimum of $125m or c 4.5p share value. If they did sell it for that price and added the CE cash, I still don’t want to see them extracting the cash via divi and want to see them follow through on their communication ie to didn’t it on new assets.

Q2 could see some really material news from A5, maybe B8 and who knows re the BNG shallows. More shallow updates and clarification on CE ue that they are running with the ABAY well this year as planned and the CE is the chosen drill rig. 803 to follow early Q3 and maybe they get that partner to try and sort 802.

Feet firmly planted and hoping that Q2 sees the final conversion of A5 and B8 licence approval with 2 successful well tests :)

BM,

It’s not BednIsa action as I’d say most investors have used their 2023/4 allowances but as you say, new pot come Monday and double whammy if your partner invested too. Volume is low but some of the selling could be to book a loss this tax year maybe and reinvest next week into the ISA.

Volume low but the flavour is selling currently and bid non existent. Buy volume is restricted to 300k and current market 3.9-3.97. Need some buying into the close or this is coming off.

Yep Mike. It’s not our oil until licence renewed and maybe the deal will change if BNG shallows sold. Hoping that we don’t wait the 18 months a la SY shallow licence.

If they sell BNG shallows, they have to have a replacement. The deal needs to be $125m minimum or we see dilution especially if they spend cash on Divis.

Big news we need is from the deeps and hopefully not too long to complete A5 side-track as that’s our company maker. 803 is early Q3 and B8 who knows. CE progress will be most welcome and eyes are on the barge and its movements as only 3 months before kick off .

Makes absolutely no sense to flog it for the numbers they were talking about unless the Abay charter is not 100% . If that goes ahead then that’s $10m+ in the coffers and you would like to think that there’s a good chance of repeat business especially as they’ve seen more interest allegedly . If they sell it for $50m or half of it for $25m, so be it but is that likely ?

Somm, B8 production cessation, where did you see that ? I’d assumed it has to have stopped as they are in the licence renewal phase and unable to sell production until awarded ?

Brent over $90 and Caspian will be thinking of switching yo export but if they’re likely to sell MJF then where’s the oil coming from, hopefully B8 or they know that another deep(s) will flow in the near term.

Current market is in limbo, which way next ? Ask still double the bid and will be interesting to see if we continue our little run or see a mini breakdown going into the weekend. Answers on a postcard :)

There are many holders holding more than 3m and it’s the PIs that are trading this stock and they dictate the price. Todays action shows 2.4m sells v 1.15m buys looking at the prices and we should be red today so must be a buy in the background or the price is going come off a little.

Every day that passes we get closer to next news :)

Bid strengthening and true price should be 4.05Can sell 300k @ 4.01 and 3.99 up to 500k, then 4.95/3.91. Ask and price gap minimising @ 4.1 for 125k max.

You lot need to get out more ! In a wok with a lid on, job done :)

Nice to see some buying starting the day. Maybe a little consolidation and now another little spurt ?

I think punters/investors are reluctant to jump onboard after a 70% rise and no guaranteed material news in the very short term. The most material imminent news could come from B8 licence approval/testing, CE update or the BNG shallows sale although I think that’s probably further down the road should it happen.

Regardless, 4p is still cheap as chips if taking a longer term view especially as we’re going to see developments on A5/803 and results this quarter maybe on A5 and 803 Q3. The BNG shallows deal could come anytime.

Looking forward to seeing some really positive news this qtr.

You do get tetchy CC.

Meanwhile the bid is very strong whereas the ask is weak so a little move coming :)

CC,

That’s a dopey post as if the 2 x 500k were rollovers, the other 2 buys and 1.25m a sell then that would means 2.4m sells ?? If that was the case then this would have flown today. There are to 127k trades which are rollovers or BNIsa. Also a 324k trade that could be either but even if it was a sell, then the buy sells would total 4.8 v 2.7m and we wouldn’t be at 3.95p.

BM,

Could be either but I think probably a sell as it tilts the sell volume to 4.4m v 3.1m buys as opposed to the other way and we’d have seen the sp in blue not red.

A 70% move was always going to see selling but held up nicely today with those willing to pay 4p. Next stop ? if we knew that we’d all be good at this game !

Yep, nice to see continued interest and holding steady. Sense the run not quite done yet :)

We’re at a crossroads re sp trend from here. Mr 500k sold into the rise this am and we can guess the pumper or sorry, should I say Tommy Trader. Strangely all quiet today…lol

MMS are matching trades currently after the worked sell of 2m @ 4p. They’re also making a killing for any orders of size ie 3.82 - 4.17 !! 1.3m each side which is the most liquid for some time.

Enough from me, hopefully the buyers win out today and there’s a little further to go before a retrace to support levels :)

Some little tinkers offloading today as 4p to tempting. Current market is very liquid with max buy 600k @4.175 and sell 1.4m @ 3.915 but better prices for lower bids. Where to next ?

Or you’ve put your clock forward 2 hours…lol

Well you must be outside the UK , if not you’ve peaked early ;)

The deep discoveries started in 2014 with A5, followed by 801 on NY block, then A6 appraisal on Airshagyl and 802 on NY. A P&A at A8 and now drilling 803, A7 to complete and remedial work on the drilled wells to commence with A5 now. To add, they’ve completed 2 deeps on 2 new structures which are due to be tested post licence approval.

I’ve plucked out a few random RNSs below that highlight the fact that every drill bar 1 has discovered oil. The Airshagyl block is the most lucrative by far but you can see from the 802 discovery that they have no real handle on reserves as they’ve interacted oil at 3900m not at the 4200m they were targeting.

They’ve been plagued by constant issues, largely down to the heat and pressure operating at 3 miles down which have resulted in blockages but the oil is there, whether they can commercialise it is yet to be seen. They’ve spent inordinate sums to date, well over $100m and no ROI yet but theyve almost completed the expensive deep drilling does with 803 being the last well pre applying for the final production licence.

I’m most excited by A5 and one of the announcements below relates to the side-track success, flowing at 3800 bopd for 15 days. Shows what’s possible if they can sort the blockage problem. If they do, the hype on this stock will go crazy as will the sp with so many other completed wells that could flow too. This is why we’re invested :)

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/x4v380x

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/xe2o0nx

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/xevd2yw

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/x85g2px

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/r77ygzr