Member Info for SmartyP1

Somm,

I believe interest will be coming from smaller players, those who are probably struggling to get production licence as opposed to the bigger boys who won’t have that issue. If any sake extends outside of the shallows then yep, could be bigger players with more money and more capability to exploit the opportunity. I’d welcome a larger partner to get involved in the deeps and share the spoils as currently we have zippo, better to get a lesser % now as opposed to continuing to feed the money pit. If KO got the right price for any asset owned, he’d be mad not to dispose of it.

Re any CPR, we are well overdue an updated version so hopefully that will happen come drilling success in the near term.

Certainly not a time to be selling and as far as I can see over the last couple of weeks the action is buying do who’s selling ? Today is 99% buys, even the initial trades early doors are buys. Regardless of drilling success, this next few months should see a cash injection and definitely needed as the 23 accounts re liabilities will demonstrate. So will move north from here BUT we need to see solid news that improves NAV and get new buyers into the game.

Somm,

I can do the math re valuation but I believe that it’s a depleting asset that they’re struggling to develop as horizontal approach is obviously failing. As you’ve stated, no CPR for ages and hopefully that’s rectified come some production success in the near term. Our CC has also stated that indicative offers were significantly in excess of carry value of c $50m so I’m reading between the lines and I don’t see it being x 4 but as I say, happy to be proved wrong . I’d also have expected to see the sp fly if investors believed that were to be the case .

The CE is probably giving them exposure to bigger players and bigger projects and maybe these offers are coming from larger organisations. If that were to be the case I’d expect them to want more than MJF so I suspect it’s not the bigger boys showing interest.

Market well bid currently at 800 v 200k on the ask.

Next news ? B8 licence agreement maybe ? CE cash ? Or 155. 803 probably still pre salt and who knows, maybe a surprise re MJF sale .

Somm,

I don’t believe we get anywhere near $200m for the shallows but happy to be proved wrong. Applying for a production licence on the deeps when there’s nothing flowing as far as we know. A5 flaring ? if that we’ll actually flows then it’s a game changer but I have not read that a side-track is underway ?

I do believe they generate cash over the next few months from CE and some drilling success at 155, B8 loan repayments and maybe production? Share buy backs are certainly a possibility as are the acquisitio. Of new assets but hopefully not all from the Oraziman portfolio !

It was good to see extension of options and new award for Shin. Strike price too low but will be good to see them exercise the option.

If they don’t succeed at the BNG deeps, the whole acreage could be sold or maybe partnered with somebody who has the skills. Post salt drilling is obviously not easy and if there’s continued failure, sell it all to someone who can or get someone in who can and share the spoils.

Been here too long and the next 3 months is hopefully going to tell me all I need to know, hopefully it’s the right news .

Contd

If they do generate cash then it gives them the opportunity to grant a special divi or who knows, they may go into share buy back mode.

Next few months will be defining for Caspian. We're getting to the conclusion stage on many assets and plenty of news in the coming days, weeks and months. Time to start generating cash to reduce those liabilities and if they do sell BNG shallows or even the deeps, what do they do with the cash ? I suspect that they buy more assets, easier targets (allegedly) like WS where hopefully their skills snd capabilities are a match for the asset to be drilled.

SP @ 3.4p ? regardless of success, the sp will run again as peeps talk it up as news nears. Hopefully this time the hype will be met with positive news that finally strengthens the foundations. If they do deliver success, you can expect to see ridiculous hype here, long overdue for those invested for years :)

Back from a nice little break in CA. Can't believe how expensive it is now !! Need our Casper to start delivering the 'shareholder value' they've been promising for 18 years!

As has been stated MANY times, there's a lot on the go that could finally improve the NAV considerably and create that shareholder value that is long overdue.

23 Financials will be out in June and we're going to see profitability BUT liabilities increasing due to increasing loans. Now is the time to turn that tide and reverse the dilutive process by generating cash. The next few months should see inflows from various sources.

Firstly the B8 contract. The licence approval could be imminent and if so, we can expect to see loan repaid and the first revenues from existing production, to be followed by the testing on the 2 new deeps and hopefully some success at long last.

Next to the CE. A couple of links below show that Abay well is going to happen and hopefully that means the CE is still the preferred drilling solution. If so there's $10m+ coming our way and probably more as the drilling time allocated is probably too optimistic so I'd be expecting more than the 10m profit.

https://emea01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fqazmonitor.com%2Fnews%2F2916%2Fhow-kazakhstan-revamps-its-subsurface-management-in-2024%3Famp%3D1&data=05%7C02%7C%7C15e84f1eb9ac4fdedf9208dc6d86acfe%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638505672400548442%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=t57PmwrWRXu625JRAQn7%2FV%2FiSnmHt0oFIehSwyeFibg%3D&reserved=0

https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/101875/

Both recent publications and stating that Abay exploration still planned. Will success at Abay mean more work for CE or will Casper trade cash for a small % of the bigger projects ?

Next the shallows sale ? They've announced the possible interest in the shallows yet they're completing 803 before applying for a production licence on an acreage ie the BNG deeps that has produced zero to date. Yes, all wells bar A8 have flowed but could any future sale include the deeps ? Either way, there could be a significant injection of cash, my concern would be whether it's more than the NAV. The big question, are Casper capable of delivering deep success ? I'm not convinced and maybe their success will come from buying and flipping assets for a considerable profit ?

Other sources of cash ? increased production of course and who knows, 803, Block 8 or any other deep like A5 would obviously transform the landscape but that's not immediate.

Our new Camel acreage at WS. The oil is allegedly seeping to the surface and it will take little time to drill a well and if successful, cash inflows could happen far sooner than at MJF. Infrastructure far better too and less transportation costs improving profitability.

If they do generate cash then it gives them the opportunity to grant a special divi or

Just finished my brekkie in Vegas and just wondering whether I’m in time warp mode or is the 26th now a Thursday in the UK ? Most odd ? Anybody attending the GM may need a chat with the good Doctor !! Most odd ?

Ah Provence, very nice indeed. On the Cote D’Azur mixing with the rich folk or further inland ? A Bordeaux and Provence road trip planned next year and a visit to the dog poo state of Monaco @ Grand Prix time. Do they ever pick up their deposits !!

Spangle on ADVFN posted some interesting observations and with a read. My current thoughts as posted on ADVFN.

Thanks for your input Spangle, interesting.

I suspect many shareholders are concerned re the latest proposed deal at West Shalva. Is it another 3AB deal wherby we suffered dilution and no ROI ? On the face of it it does look like another sweetheart deal but won't know until it's drilled. I'm not unhappy with their acquisition strategy but am unhappy with the structure of this deal. They could structure it completely differently without any immediate dilution apart from drilling commitments. Our Bolthazan is going to receive 200m shares or should I say the KO clan is and it could be a repeat of 3AB, there are no guarantees. Surely they should be waiting to see the outcomes from BNG shallows sale, CE deal and current drilling ? if positive then the sp will increase and that's the time to do the deal as it would be far less dilutive. The CP/WCP would be winning as the share price could be back to double figures but no, they're doing it now and it's another feed at the trough.

They could've waited as the asset is available so why do it now ? I suspect that the BNG shallows deal is closer than we think, maybe B8 news too and the CE cash deal confirmation. I think they're rushing it through to max out their shareholding pre releasing positive news and to have prospective acreage at WS that COULD replace MJF.

One thing I do know, they're going all in with building their shareholding so surely there has to be good news and an exit at some juncture.

Could be the biggest bargain on AIM or the Casper saga will drag on, which is it ? we'll know very soon imo.

I haven’t read it yet, I’m out shopping for Masters goodies as the kids and dog are landing shortly. Burgers, ribs , buffalo wings, tiger prawns and some Craft beers, can’t wait :)

Https://wp-caspiansunrise-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/04/Caspian-Sunrise-West-Shelva-PR-Audit-10-April_Final-1.pdf

The Gaffney Cline assessment is on the company website.

Joe,

Good post.

I don’t believe that they will lose the vote to get this through. Pis only own 15% max and the other 35%, the Al Marris , Benny, DAE Han hold 20% and the other Kazakhs , Sagdievya, Kerimbayev, Ramazanov, Zoldybayev etc all probably amount to 10% and then there’s the odds and sods. This gets voted through.

I’m hoping that this is the last sweetheart deal before they release positive news, their last feed at the trough before selling the shallows and getting CE cash.

Next 3 months are definitely going to be VERY important, good, bad or indifferent.

There’s loads on this quarter and YES, get on with drilling success on all existing operational activity and there’s loads as we know. CE cash should be getting nearer I’d deal concludes. The sp should be rising on anticipation of a hectic q2 so STOP the distractions and get on with the job at hand ie producing oil !!

Roxi sold Galaz for $100m. Much that their share was less for their % ownership, that’s what the sale price was. Was it fair value for the acquirers ? No but it was to Roxi (Caspian).

Bought 3AB with allocation of c 150m shares @ 12p and zero to show for it.

Bought the CE for $24m and another 160m shares @ 12p allocated. The initial build/fit out costs were $200m so we could argue this is a good deal but as yet it’s washed its face with one health and safety assignment.

Block 8 @ $60m could be a great deal but we won’t pay that price if it’s a duffer. We’ve paid the initial $5m to meet drilling commitments and then $5 a barrel on all production to the seller. I’m not unhappy with this as there’s minimal dilution ie the initial commitment.

West Shalva @ $5m ? No further commitment if no oil found but I don’t want them to but this asset at a 5% dilution at 4p. Wait till they get the sp up to double figures by converting existing assets and then buy it with petty cash as opposed to dilution.

I’m not saying it’s not a good deal, I don’t know but one thing for sure, they need to follow proper regulatory process to assess fair value. They need to appoint new NEDs as per their communication.

They don’t need this now. NO MORE SWEETHEART deals. Get on with the job at hand ie VALUE CREATION for long suffering shareholders !!

I will add, that is the view of the many shareholders that I liaise with. I appreciate it may not be the view of all but one thing for sure, they need to recruit NEDs. They’ve stated they would so get on with the process, will it change anything ? who knows.

As posted, I’ve asked shareholders to contact the company to ask for clarification and the recruitment of NEDs. I’ve sent a few notes and the latest to understand how this WS deal can be passed and who decides that this is fair value ? Some of us are really interested in seeing this company deliver !

Clive,

So Gaffney Cline told you it was a realistic price - fair enough, so why not publish their guidance in the Circular? Surely shareholders would like more of an independent validation than "we're telling you"?

Also I don't class the NOMAD as competent to advise on deal values, only the legalese around related party transactions.

As for Shin being an independent director ?? He's the Chief Operating Officer on the Executive Management Committee. How in any way does that even start to be considered as independent?

Shareholders are not happy Clive and the message is loud and clear ie we don't want any more KO family assets until you start making progress on all the other assets. We want to see the value creation from all existing assets, there's no need for more unless of course the existing assets aren't going to deliver. I'm all for cheap assets that will return value but 3AB is proof whereby investors get diluted. We'd be onside if the current assets were delivering and I'd suggest that would be the time to do any future deals !!

You need to get impartial NEDs onboard and promptly !

Cc, sell 7m shares, you’ve lost me there and you’ve never had 7m shares to sell ;) You’re the biggest Tommy Trader on this BB, your prerogative but it is funny when you go off on one when somebody sells a chunk . Each to their own.

Et al,

They have a load of assets that are not delivering a bean outside of the shallows which they’re possibly now selling. I don’t get that when they can build production and benefit from export prices. Maybe the deal size from any sale is far higher than my expectation, if it is, that’s great but I am concerned re where that money is spent. MJF/SY has a value I can see, it underpins the current sp. Cash doesn’t, it can be extracted or invested in other assets as communicated but if its assets like Shalva, that concerns me. Maybe it’s great but not for now, get on with creating value from existing assets. Surely shareholders will be happy to see the focus on closing out A block, NY and Block 8, we don’t need more assets at this juncture and the associated dilution.

As stated many times, the current assets can deliver a multi-bagging performance. 10 years on and not a penny from the deeps and 4 years on the CE. Lets hope that they change those stats over the coming weeks and months :)

You do make me larf CC.

Cut and run… lol

Unfortunately or fortunately, not in that club anymore. Back to 7 figures as I didn’t like the MJF disposal proposition or the current W Shalva deal and hence a de-commit from me . Did my 23/24 BednIsas and have 2 more to do this year and there is a silver lining, I can get most of them in at current prices Still have more stock than most but I now want to see Casper do what they say they’re going to do and fed up of the lack of prioritisation and good management.

I stated that I’ll stick around for the conclusion of the deeps but it’ll be 18 years invested come July and that’s a tad longer than I was planning for a healthy ROI !!! Hopefully we see a positive outcome on 803/A5 and B8 this year, if we don’t, I’ll take more off the table and leave some for the FOMO fund. Not averse to adding more again BUT not until I see the foundations strengthened.