Member Info for SmartyP1

Yep, no guarantees on material news that will affect sp but we must be due a quarterly update. Possible positive items ?

- B8 approval but that’s probably unlikely as SY licence took ages

- 142/805 increased flow rates

- CE update - more detail on timings, responsibility for beach etc

- deep updates but nothing material as all in progress

- shallows update

- other - corp activity ?

Bid very strong this morning and a good time to be adding as the operational schedule is progressing and material news due over the coming weeks and months :)

Kazakhs celebrating Nowruz today and tomorrow so no news this week. Probably next week as a quarterly update, if so, comprehensive, detailed and positive please.

C 3.6m buys v 1m sells. That’s pretty spicy action without any news . Peeps who sold loading back up ? peeps adding ? As all LTHs know, there’s loads on although it may take a few years to get through Diver’s list.

The most material news would be B8 but I suspect we wait a little longer for approval. 142 could be flowing at higher volumes, maybe 805 too. More news on CE progress possibly. Maybe some corp developments ? Progress on the other deeps but nothing really material.

Next update should be comprehensive to cover all assets but when ?

If it’s a P&D it’s a nice one, especially for the early buys. It was so well bid this morning, somebody(s) were after a load of stock. 30% hike on c £60k buys is extreme but a 25% profit in a few hours is good business if you’re that way inclined.

Some letting go of of a few now but with sooo much on the go, the sp does not reflect the NAV/opportunity. Some may disagree but with shallows, deeps,barge and likely future acquisitions, this is bargain territory for those with an appetite for risk.

Roll on some positive news to strengthen those foundations :)

Last time yo get your cheapies ? Get them while they’re hot ;)

Somm, the platform will be contractor expense otherwise this is a NO deal.

The bud has strengthened to 2.45m !! Some greedy person(s) are looking for stock. The sp is primed for another run, hopefully backed by some good news .

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/kazakhstan-looking-for-drilling-success-to-rekindle-investor-interest-in-oil/2-1-1606630

The good news, they are drilling the 3 wildcats inc ABAY structure. If successful, surely the CE will be required to drill future wells and good news for Casper on the revenue front. Also good news that there’s focus on new exploration by KMG as Kaz need to drive up GDP from the O&G sector.

No guarantees but the CE could become an additional cash cow alongside MJF/SY to enable them to continue the deep campaign and probably to acquire other smaller acreages. Kaz want exploration and Casper are willing to do it, the biggest challenge, are they skilled enough to deliver. I believe the asset portfolio will grow over time and maybe some diversification into minerals etc but the key question as always ‘ can they convert non NAV assets into true fundamental value.

I’m really hoping that B8 licence is approved shortly and that the 2 new structures are producers s per previous deeps drilled on that block. Alongside that the 802/803 wells, to get them flowing as they are meant to be the easiest targets and 802 flowed before blockages. Then onto my favourite well ie A5, the well that flowed at the highest flow rates for the longest time. A5 is on our most lucrative block for reserves and success here is a real game changer.

Loads of opportunities but can they deliver ?

Think of the positives, it’s BedNIsa time, deadlines 28/3. Opportunity for some with stock sitting outside the wrapper to squeeze as many in. At current prices couples can move c1.6m in :). News before the deadline ? I believe so and it will be comprehensive but nobody knows the quality .

Tick, tock.

Yep, loads on, that’s a fact but now is time to get a least one structure flowing commercially. From what we k ow from the seismic, the most valuable structure is A block and that’s the structure that will send the sp rocketing as they look to appraise the structure. That’s where the big reserves are, not NY but that’s another one that needs success to assess reserves properly. Block 8 ? we don’t know what’s there but as it’s been a producing field then there is hope with these 2 new structures so hopefully we don’t wait too long for licence approval as per SY !

I’m still optimistic with a large dose of cynicism thrown in to keep feet firmly planted. Lots of opportunities but as stated many times, no more c*ck ups .

Forgot to add my favourite RR, what a star performer and shows you can get eye watering returns from solid lower risk investments.

Huge ‘possible’ returns from Casper but now time to get off the pot.

Mr C,

That’s not a bad call although nice to have the odd AIM runt in the portfolio for a bit of excitement should you get lucky. There have been huge returns from many FTSE listed sstocks over the last 6 months, many paying Divis too. The HBs have been great, BDEV/TW/VTY. All up 35% over last few months with BDEV up over 70% until latest financials trimmed their sales. I like VTRY and that’s sen 50% hike last 3 months, their model isn’t just reliant on housing market, they have their Partnerships model which will deliver more profitability than the retail space. Good old BARC returning over 35% since bank wobbles with Divis too and plenty more.

24 is the year that Casper now need to break out of this trading range and that will only come with solid drilling results. Buying additional acreage will probably materialise but that won’t hike the sp unless they’re taking over producing assets. Shallow success will strengthen foundations and lift the sp but it’s always been about the deeps for me as why would you want to be invested in a high risk AIM stock without the multi-bagging returns ? I’ve stayed invested to see the first deep success but 24 will be my last year invested unless they can deliver that objective. If they do, then it’s the company making news we’ve been waiting for and we can then make proper investment decisions based on proper fundamentals. If they don’t, time to cut and run but will leave some on the table as a ‘just in case’ play and will always review. Obviously don’t want to sell out when sp on its arze but there should be several opportunities this year to create some value creation. obviously a deep success or successes changes my view and investment strategy.

Mr Carver, it’s been 17 long years and about time you started delivering your business objectives, I think you’d agree it’s well overdue .

I believe you are correct re ENI and responsibility for the foundations.

Re B8, no answer there apart from the regulatory bits and licence approval. Obviously holding back testing until approvals received.

Not what I said Somm. Next update for March on all assets plus a clarification on the CE beach hopefully. Only deep wells die news are B8 but we’re waiting for licence approval which could take ?

March pour moi. Let’s hope it’s positive .

Nope, bid has weakened as a result and current market sell is 2.43p. Not everybody buying into the future prospects and the fluctuations at this level are as a result of those trading in and out.

I did and was expecting to see it part of the last RNS but I assume it will be. I believe next update will cover all assets plus CE update.

When I said that article is a far better , it may be stretching the truth a little maybe the 375 is the total no at SY today ? 805 was a horizontal in the existing well so added volume but I don’t know he number as haven’t asked the question. My read is that they could double prod on all old Soviet SY wells with the horizontal approach and hopeful of 142 volumes increasing. Maybe after the 1400 egg on face saga, maybe best to err on the side of caution.

Let’s hope do BM and it’s the positive variety (ies) ;)

MMS been having a field day today but price should’ve moved more on 2m buys and 30k sells ? Suspect we have somebody(s) selling a few.

As posted earlier, makes a far better read. I’ve also had comms with Clive and they’re hopeful that 142 volumes will build and they can replicate the 805 success with the 3 other wells. Also asked him re asset acquisition and he commented that there are several blocks available that they could be interested in with little competition currently. Acquisition has always been on the cards and maybe Shin is the link to KNOC assets on the disposal list ? Also asked about oil revenues and the current split is still 50:50 so no change there. Finally CE cash this year and their preparing CE for the ENI contract but we knew that anyway.

We know they have the assets and the cash to exploit them this year so sp should start trending north on pure expectation of regular newsflow,. No guarantees re the quality but definitely plenty to report on.

https://bnnbreaking.com/finance-nav/caspian-sunrise-resurgence-and-innovation-in-oil-extraction

Nice to see a little bit of blue soon after a little sell off. Probably those who offloaded at 2.7 ish and rebuying at 2.4 ish. Good business if you're trading it and as stated, there is a lot planned for this year.

Current market is silly as MMs are cleaning up with a 10% spread !! 2.35-2.59 up to 300k, 2.31p up to 1.2m so very well bid. Max buy 375k @ 2.59p. Well done to the early bird shopper(s) at 2.4p ish .

well, the trading tells a story as to what pis thought of today’s news.

the news wasn’t bad but definitely fitted the recent flavour of familiar or typical ! i see it as a missed opportunity as the news was confusing, not consistent with previous announcements and pis left to do the translation again. i’ve given direct feedback as i’m ****ed off with another lack of detail announcement.

all they had to do was to be open and honest. the bad news that mjf total prod has declined and to give the current volume for each well across the shallow assets. they could’ve fessed up and stated that mjf needs continued work overs, 145 was a failure but 142 was good news and they are hopeful of increasing volume from that interval. applying same methodology to 141 to get that back online. also with sy, i assumed that they were targeting new structure to increase reserves but in fact they have re-entered 805 to run a horizontal, that will be the same for the others. they could have made that a positive by positioning it differently and volume likely to double or more but they didn’t.

the 803 well, 200m in 2 months…..lol. a7 the rig was being tested but now we’re still acquiring it and 802 looking for a partner. a5 on the agenda too but no detail re timings. quite simply they are managing the cash as many have stated already. they’ve had to meet licence commitments and that means spending money, the ce is being readied for the new contract and that costs money and the lack of gross export revenues mean they are going as fast as their funds will allow.

i've asked what the split is re domestic and domestic mr and it remains at c 50:50, that is good news as they're more profitable but it doesn't help them with the cash flow flexibility which the gross export revenues delivered.

were in this 2-3p trading range until they deliver progress on the drilling front ie a build on the shallows and that elusive first deep. as i see it, nothing really material is going to happen until they complete 802/803/a7/a5 and at this pace, it’s q3 not 2. i haven’t mentioned block 8 but a success here could change the landscape considerably. clive has given feedback that the changes in govt have added to the bureaucracy and timings so that hasn’t helped the approval process.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/kazakh-president-accepts-governments-resignation-2024-02-05/

the story goes on and i sense the pace will continue slowly until they get additional funds from prod success or ce. as stated, the biggest injection could come from block 8, let’s hope so.

i don’t believe we wait too long for another more detailed update. may involve corp activity but currently the ship is profitable, cash flow tight but funded to continue the journey without dilution.