Member Info for SmartyP1

Slept late again,. Tmoz or next week probably but I’d prefer the latter. As each day passes, hopefully there’s a bit more ‘positive’ activity, yawwwwnnnn.

Cc,

Yep, shallows and CE cash will give sp appreciation BUT it’s always been about the deeps for the big bucks and that’s why many are invested. No way I’d be invested for the shallows as the likely reserves and NAV won’t give many LTHs the returns they’re looking for from a high risk share. Just got to look at our Brendan’s broker notes to show where the upside is, all in the deeps. Yep, shallows build the financial foundation and CE cash to build on that but success at one of the deeps sees the huge returns from a high risk play like Casper. One deep success and this gets ramped into oblivion, it will be another UKOG story but with some backbone as opposed to Fulogas bullshoite.

If they get the CE cash and build prod from shallows then the sp doubles and some and puts the financial foundations in that enable the deep journey to continue.

24 could be the year, been said many times but the sp will start moving north soon just on expectation :)

Don’t want to p’ss on your bonfire CC , pardon the pun but I believe it’s all necessary spend BUT happy to see its to do with HCs as opposed to a late night barbecue getting out of control ;).

Not long for news and if it was a blockbuster then I’d thought CC would’ve been rushing to get the news out but as we know, there’s no consistency on publication timings whether good or bad.

If this is another typical RNS then the sp will continue to trade in this range but not for long as there will be loads of news to come on the key assets in H1. Regardless of outcomes, the sp will rally on expectation, especially if the CE deal is 100% as I believe that’s not priced in. We have many material events on the deeps and should see conclusion on all by end of H1.

B8

802

803

A7 - maybe falling into Q3

Ablock remedial work on A5 & A6

CE cash

If we hadn’t had a record of failure on the deeps, with this operational campaign, the sp would be flying at this juncture, just on expectation. In addition the CE cash of $10-15m ! that’s huge profit but the current PIs aren’t convinced that the deal is 100% as otherwise this wouldn’t be in the 2p range.

If they just managed to deliver more success on the shallows, by that I mean hitting the targets of 4-5k bopd , that would generate considerable revenue/profitability, that with the CE cash woul restore the divi payments which would attract investors BUT at sensible yields so they don’t bust the bank again ! From the current sp, the immediate yields would be ridiculous and they wouldn’t have to splash the cash.

Lots to like currently as per reasons above and the sp is going to go on a run based on the facts available. Let’s see how it runs but I see a minimum double bagger in the not too distant but as we know, it only takes one positive on the key assets to send this on a multi-bagging journey, that’s why we’re invested i:)

Bull,

Traditional or typical, good words to describe Casper RNSs. If it is Thursday I was hoping for more of the terrific and less of the terrible ! Pure speculation but I’m going for the indifferent again with a general update across all activities. Not expecting material news on drilling but more of a progress update and maybe some corporate activity with an update on CE that hopefully confirms we’re not building an underwater Chesil Beach !!

The real move comes from the deep news but positive shallow is most welcome but I’m obviously on the wrong grapevine as I’m not aware of continued 142 failure but probably highly likely with Shin’s recent record.

Wondrous, woeful or wonted

Terrific, terrible or traditional

Fantastic, forgettable or familiar

Wouldn’t it be nice to see some category one adjectives for a change !!

Yep Goa is beautiful and loads of the Portuguese influence and trots inevitable ! Neighbour out in Delhi now doing the Toblerone but feeling more like the Japanese flag 🇯🇵

We were going in March for Cherry Blossom but I’m not fit enough to do the walking. Pals of ours have just had a great trip planned by Audley but need Casper to appreciate somewhat to afford that trip ! Wendy Wu Tours a better fit. Deferred to Autumn but one I’ve wanted to do for some time.

Mike, we’re definitely on different sides of the fence on that one !

A long haul year planned this year, got to be done. CA, Japan & Goa if my old bones hold out. Trying to plan the fly/drive from Vegas ending up in LA but lots to plan. Got to hire the Mustang drop top and hope it doesn’t break down on Route 66…lol

Hopefully news this week and no more dragging ! probably be a general housekeeping update on all assets but as usual I’m not opening the bottom drawer yet ;)

I’ve asked for some clarification on the CE underwater beach, hopefully not our responsibility !!

Badge,

Yep this week, hopefully not leaving it til Friday ! Not expecting fireworks on the drilling front but lots to report on as we go through H1 so a fair chance of seeing some progress. I want to know if there’s anything of note happening on the corp front following the new IP, if so, hopefully of a positive nature :)

Mine all set up for the rugby today. Was going to Twickers but hip still playing up ! so the sofa/brewdog combo takes it. Also my boys are very much in nappies and our new captain needs to learn to speak to the ref !! Too young at 21 but no choice when other boys are injured. Hopefully it’s a great game .

Scotland vvFrance looks interesting. French were poor against Ireland,not taking anything away from the Paddies. Maybe missing DuPont as play maker will set them back but the Scots were poor against my boys in the second half and I think making Russell cap will detract from his maverick nature.

Cmon the boys :)

Looks like someonody(s) building a position today (;

If it is bad news on 142, it certainly isn’t deterring some interested parties. Bid back to 1.25m, not been at that level for many months.

CC,

Re trading, not an easy game and those who sold at the highs were very clever or very lucky. The call was to stay in with 802 allegedly flowing, 142 too taking prod to c3400bopd and Divis for icing . Why sell ? The price tanked quickly into the 7/6p range and volume wasn’t huge so not many PIs cashed in. Also the run up to 8.6p, new money has enters the game for Divis plus the hot money so leverage wouldn’t have helped as it got squeezed.

If the good news event happened, by that I mean a commercial deep at sensible volumes, the sp would move but the rate of that move depends on comms. If they announced B8 wells at say 700 bopd each on 2 new structures, that would be great news BUT we all know they have to meet flow test rules so maybe the sp doesn’t fly initially. The historic false dawns will also play their part as peeps know that a flowing well not satisfying the 30 day flow test is not a commercial find. I have written to Casper to state that fact, why announce early and constantly repeat the ‘egg on face’ scenario. I understand that they need to announce a flow test result before going to testing but they waited c15 days on A5 sidetrack before announcing so why not 30 days. Trading is certainly an art and not many have mastered it. If they did announce after 30 consecutive days without prior update, the sp would gap up massively and those who know the stock would load up or add to positions. Currently the process allows the seller to rejoin the party at flow test notification but I will continue to urge them to be more definite of flow rates pre going to test and that would give us the A5 moment again.

News tomorrow or next week and hoping it’s not more BS !!

Mike,

If that’s true then our Shin needs to dust off his CV. Sadly that won’t happen as it’s the Oliver/Hardy show and Charlie Chaplin hasn't joined the team yet ! Shin is a link to assets, past and future so I don’t believe he goes anywhere but there needs to be new NEDs appointed and soon.

Peeps buying at this sp will make money barring any sinister goings on ! As all LTHs know, this has traded in ranges over the years and those who have traded it have done nicely and will probably do nicely again but many inc me are still waiting for the first deep and the lucrative payday. Those who trade risk the unexpected great news RNS that catapults the sp but probably make the decision that they can get in at sensible prices regardless of news. Issue will be if you want volume, you’ll be paying for it but each to their own.

News upon us, hopefully I don’t need CS translation services !!

Yep, all invested here must be on the nitrous !

The sp is almost back to the fire sale prices during the riots/Covid crisis. The risk then was far more extreme, especially through Covid when they had to mothball everything but the market isn’t buying it currently.

News is indeed upon us and all waiting for the next episode of CS. What could it contain ?

Personally, I’m not expecting fireworks on the drilling front, just a progress update. Maybe 142 is successful, that would be good news but the rest will be a progress update on 805/803/A7 and B8. B8 is waiting approvals and I’m hoping that they’ve seen enough positivity during the drill phase to continue with the acquisition . As we know B8 deeps have flowed so hopefully increases our COS but these 2 new wells are new structures. We’ll get the prod update and hopefully they’re maintaining the approx 2k bopd.

If we get any corporate type activity, that could be anything. I’m sincerely hoping that it’s not a Placing. Not that I’m against a Placing for the right reasons but not at 2p with huge dilution ! I think that’s unlikely with CE cash due this year but that isn’t 100% yet as the Abay block project has seen delays since 2021. It could be the involvement of another partner ? maybe an acquisition or even another listing on another exchange but I’d have thought they’d have needed some positive news before doing that, knowing that they have good news to follow to appeal to instititions. Could be another venture into minerals as a result of Benny’s arrival ?

All I know is that there’s more activity planned this year than any other year. They have more assets to go at, have the cash (allegedly) to facilitate the drilling campaigns so hopefully more chances = likelihood of more success.

News tomorrow or next week probably but loads more to come this year.

Tick, tock.

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Market-Needs-14-Trillion-OPEC-Secretary-General.html

Still time for Caspian to develop the acreage before 2045 ;)

Back to $65m m/cap and revenue this year willl probably exceed $45m and it will be very profitable if it includes CE cash. That does not include any prod build and there’s a fair chance that they can build the numbers taken into consideration the drilling activity planned this year.

I am so tempted to add another chunk BUT I have too many and I’m wanting to see some drilling success before making any more commitments but as we know, the cheapies would’ve gone.

Are we looking at the biggest gift horse on AIM or are we missing something ?

Can’t keep withholding news and likely to be this week or next latest. Good, bad or indifferent ? nobody knows but they’re funded to execute a very active operational schedule this year. As per Diver’s post the other day, loads of assets to go at but as always, it’s success with the drill bit that will decide the direction of sp travel, hopefully a reversal of fortunes this year.

The material news is on 142, I believe everything else will be a status update on the wells in progress ie 805/803. We’ll get a prod update so hopefully we’re maintaining 2k bopd (approx, allegedly !) . B8 will be probably still be awaiting regulatory approvals, hopefully not protracted as with SY licence .

I’ve been harping on about corp activity following new Auditors/new IP and still honk something going on but the longer it takes the less likely it is.

Inflation position has improved dramatically in Kstan, from c 22% a year ago ! to 5.8% in Jan and we thought we had it bad ! Forecasts for 5.4% economic growth this year so hopefully costs are decreasing and profitability improving for our Casper.

Also, frigid weather has passed and current conditions in Atyrau and Feb forecast are milder than average. Maybe the the N Caspian ice melt is earlier this year but I suspect it won’t affect the timing of the CE Abay block project.

24 should be our busiest year from an ops perspective, will we finally convert the 5 or 6 deeps that are or will be drilled this year.

A very good punt for those with an appetite for risk :)

Hi Mike,

Nice summary :) I don’t believe we’ll be drilling more A block wells, well not unless we see a positive conclusion to one of those drilled already. All remedial work after A7 and we’ll know our fate this year. Same goes for NY deeps, no more after 803, all remedial.

As you highlight, soooooooo much opportunity so why are we failing ? Geology too tough ? Shin and team incompetent ? If it’s the former, that’s an issue for any drilling crew, the latter is fixable, either sack Shin and put a leader in who can turn it around or maybe get a new team via a JV or Farm in. Can’t continue wasting money on the deep money pit and pointless stating that the specialists can do no better. If that was true then it highlights the fact that the geology is too tough.

CC, selling at these levels, you must be nuts ! The little buying spree was probably a very poor attempt of a pump pre news but nobody bought it and the buyer(s) soon became sellers at a loss. This is a time for buying but let’s see what our Clive has in his kit bag this month :)

Yep OJ. We’re invested as there’s a possibility of extreme upside but with that comes poor comms. The company is becoming less risky to invest in as it has a few more strings to its now ie shallow prod, their oil trading and services biz and the CE. Now that I’ve said that they’re financially sorted, they’ll probably announce a Placing !! although I think that’s unlikely. I still maintain something is going on behind the scenes following the release of the Investor Presentation.

Mr 250k been offloading pre news, probably another little mini pump that got no traction and a pointless exercise. This is a strong buy down here yet peeps still offloading ? Oil trading above $80 and no sign of geopolitical tensions easing. Iran will be hot with sanctions if things continue and oil supply will diminish and crude will head to $90 but as always, oil forecasting is Mystic Meg territory :)

A little bit of positivity and sentiment changes. Enough on the go to take us to double figures and beyond. Is Casper finally going to fulfil its promise ??