Member Info for SmartyP1

Mike,

…lol, there’s enough there I think plus 801 as per Somm’s note.

Our KO has filled Casper with assets and amassed a load of stock. The plan is the same as it’s always been, to prove up the asset base and sell the bleeding thing.

The story continues but something has to ho our way at some juncture :)

As communicated, they have a very busy W4 planned on the operational front. History is evidence that they’re not the best at sticking to timelines so a very large pinch of salt required with their updates !

So, plans for Q4

- Shallows

142 - nearly completed sidetrack so should see news early this month

141 - planning another horizontal as per 142

155 - new well to be drilled

145 - workover not worked so same approach here

Deeps

802- Stuck pipe removal ongoing

803 - to spud

A6 - to be retested

A5 - new sidetrack

Block 8 deeps

First well at TD and testing

Second well close to TD and testing soon

Barge sale/charter

Discussions ongoing

This activity schedule is fairytale stuff , especially as cash is tight but it shows that they have a lot to go at. 142 is important as a successful horizontal as per initial drill will see prod volumes exceeding 3k bopd and 3 other wells to follow. That should be the easy stuff and generates the cash needed to accelerate operations on other projects.

The 2 block 8 well results are imminent, I see this opportunity as an all to gain and almost nothing to lose venture. 110 bopd of production as of today, 800 bopd at peak so hopefully they can increase volumes to historic volumes with the 2 new wells drilled. Worst case they don’t flow and Casper will benefit from existing production v cost of rigs utilised and labour. They won’t continue to drill loads of wells on B8 and drain Casper of equipment availability and resources if initial few wells are unsuccessful. They need to appraise the acreage if first 2 wells produce oil and what’s to lose if they don’t. If they achieved 1000bood total from these first 2 wells, that would generate over $12m pa v a cost of $1.8m as per the $5 per barrel charge, obviously there’s resource costs to be factored in. What’s not to like ? If successful, they’ll continue to appraise and then CPR and increased reserves.

The barge cash from Isatay project is in the bag and a sale at the right price may happen earlier but either way, they have a chunk of cash coming their way so 24 is guaranteed to be profitable.

Sp on its arze and doesn’t reflect the current position but our Casper leadership have continued to score own goals to damage sentiment. As stated many times, it won’t take much to set this off again and for the investor enthusiasm to return. They have a very busy Q4 and whatever they manage to drill , let’s hope they’re positive outcomes.

Peeps are selling pre news and I see it a different way but let’s hope we have something to shout about this quarter :)

Yep, liabilities are up. Divis, Block 8, licence costs and reducing production have all contributed to that situation, that and the increased activity over the last couple of years.

The current financials are far better than at anytime in the last 16 years Nat one year ie 22 when they benefitted from extreme export prices. Their current production at 1953 bopd is c 50% over the historic average and they are achieving better net oil prices as a result of the MR business and their own trading.

They have had a very poor year on the drilling front and success will change the debt position very quickly, especially as Divis stopped. The balance sheet will improve if Block 8 delivers historic or improved production levels and they need to focus on the easiest shallow targets. The NNG deeps will continue and costs should not be extreme as most have been drilled and only remedial work necessary. Will the G70 rig help proceedings ? who knows but there will be 6 deeps drilled (excluding A8) so costs will reduce but that will be probably be replaced by Block 8 activity which will be far cheaper.

The barge cash is also very important and charter(s) alone will deliver huge chunks of cash but a sale enables them to press on with the operational activity to build reserves.

The sp will move northwards again but as always, it’s all about production success, let’s hope they start getting luck :)

Just confirmed the confusion on production totals and it is as thought 1685 + 268, so 1953 in total. The previous statement from CC confirmed 1700 at MJF and I believe investors took that number to be total production when it was MJF only !!

They have to deal with the water Ingress and we’ll soon know if 142 new horizontal has fixed the problem as that’s a big producer.

The journey continues

Looks like they are well advanced at Block 8 wells and ready to test. Rigs, manpower and cash had been diverted to Block 8 which has obviously affected the operational effort at Caspian. Our KO continues to add assets into Caspian and we’ll soon see results to see if this was the right strategy.

The Block 8 contract area extends over 2,823 km2 with The Block 8 contract area extends over 2,823 km2 with three identified structures and production from two existing wells. It was previously owned by LG International the Korean conglomerate, which in 2006 began the acquisition of 3D seismic data over approximately 456 km2. In recent years two deep wells have been drilled to depths of 4,203 meters and 3,449 meters respectively, from which oil has flowed at rates of up to 800 bopd.

Current production from Block 8 is approximately 110 bopd, with oil transported to the same treatment and pumping station used by BNG.

Drilling at Deep Well AKD-4 has reached its planned total depth of 3,922 meters and preparations are underway to test the well.

Drilling at Deep Well T-2D, which has a planned total depth of 3,500 meters, has reached 3,408 meters. After the remaining 92 meters are completed the well will be prepared for testing.

From interims -;

The acquisition of Block 8 will bring a second flagship asset into the Group. Either BNG or Block 8 will then have the ability to transform the value of the Group in the event of successful deep drilling.three identified structures and production from two existing wells. It was previously owned by LG International the Korean conglomerate, which in 2006 began the acquisition of 3D seismic data over approximately 456 km2. In recent years two deep wells have been drilled to depths of 4,203 meters and 3,449 meters respectively, from which oil has flowed at rates of up to 800 bopd.

Current production from Block 8 is approximately 110 bopd, with oil transported to the same treatment and pumping station used by BNG.

Drilling at Deep Well AKD-4 has reached its planned total depth of 3,922 meters and preparations are underway to test the well.

Drilling at Deep Well T-2D, which has a planned total depth of 3,500 meters, has reached 3,408 meters. After the remaining 92 meters are completed the well will be prepared for testing.

The acquisition of Block 8 will bring a second flagship asset into the Group. Either BNG or Block 8 will then have the ability to transform the value of the Group in the event of successful deep drilling.

Financials are better than I expected in H1 but operationally they’ve gone backwards but we knew that.

Revenue down but I missed the magnitude of additional Rev from oil trading which is a plus

PAT better yoy

Drawn $3.4m of $5m credit line

$o.5m CAB as of end June

Need to understand the numbers at SY/MJF which are 1685 and 268 bopd.

802 is another deep problem and why are they removing the stuck pipe, it’ll be easier to re drill the well or focus on 803

No progress on MJF or SY

Block 8 deal agreed but not signed off

CE charter in play 2024, no sale agreed

They are financially secure to continue especially with the CE deal. The story goes on and priorities remain the same and shallow production work is key while the pursue the deeps and develop Block 8.

Divis drained cash, it was suicide to continue that journey so now they have shelved that and will use the cash for the operational effort.

As always, tick, tock.

Https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/rnl93nw

22 Interims above were the best set of results that Casper had produced. 2264 bopd average, $25.6m , $10m PBT, net $7.3. Domestic oil averaging $25 and Urals at $86 generated the huge jump in turnover yoy.

So what are we expecting in the 23 interims ?

- Production shouldn’t be that dissimilar to 22 so could be c 400k boo+ ?

- Turnover will be greatly reduced as no exports so c $12m ?

- PBT ? should be higher as a %

- PAT? Will be interesting to see this number as they are achieving better net prices after costs

- CAB ? - this will be painful as they have spent considerable cash on Divis/Block 8

We’ll know the story next week but there are positives ie

- production levels are far higher than historic numbers

- net prices from MR/domestic market are higher than historic international prices (except when Ukraine war kicked off and no sanctions)

They should be generating enough cash today to continue the drilling plan, especially as divi drain removed. Crude above $90 should also be helping with the net prices achieved . The negative, they’re not getting the gross inflows of cash from the export market but their profitability should be improved but we’ll know more next week.

If you look at turnover/profit for Roxi/Caspian, you will see that we are in a far stronger position today but the sp doesn’t reflect that. The CE charter for next year will be welcome cash if it’s not sold before and 24 is guaranteed to be a good year financially with this net income. The story will go on and they’ll have the cash to exploit the base, the question as always, will they be successful.

61

Un, a bit unfair on our Clive ;) Don’t forget he had to sign up to the shares in lieu deal when Covid hit and has 2.245m shares plus his options.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/casp/company-profile?countrycode=uk&pid=12506017

SB,

I think our Stockopedia are definitely out with the PI holdings as I believe they are closer to 13%.

Yep, our KO has 48% and the WCP take that up to 75% ish. KO’s payday comes on a success case, no guarantees but you can’t say that they’re not committed. That commitment was increased recently with the conversion of the $6.4m debt Whether they get their big payday is another question but skin in the game is an understatement. Would be nice to see our CC put his hand in his pocket but that’s not going to happen regardless how good the prospects, his payday comes from options qualification .

Sp edging nort up to the Interims as people add a few, probably to sell pre news.

GWM,

The million dollar question….lol

The upside is way more than x4 BUT history has shown us that they’re not skilled enough to convert a deep or maybe the geology is too difficult, who knows.

The asset base is larger than it has been originally and they own all of it. They have the barge with a lucrative contract for 2024 (allegedly) and will probably be adding Block 8 opportunity and we’ll find out more shortly. They have MJF and SY which has been their saviour as it’s the cash cow and avoids dilutive fundraising and if you look historically, they’re still producing more than the c1300bopd average snd net prices are far higher today.

I’m staying in as the assets on A block and N Yelemes are still in play, so is MJF and SY with the possible new structure and probably Block 8. As far as I can see they’re funded to continue operations without dilution and the cessation of divi and recent increase in oil prices will help considerably.

No advice intended, only one throat to choke and all that. Sentiment is on its arze and the last update was probably the most honest we’ve received so hopefully bad news is out. I’m staying in until I see see reason to exit but certainly not for the faint hearted !

Https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#Brent-Crude

Oil prices up 30%+ from the c $70 low in the summer and looks like $100 could be breached again as we head into winter. Needs to increase another $20 to make exporting work but hopefully we’re benefitting from the recent price spike.

Belles,

No arguing with the pong.

Et al,

It’s been a very poor year since all the positivity in Q4 22. Our Shin started off with loads of promise on the horizontal program but sadly he’s gone backwards since initial success and obviously not easy to maintain productivity. Water ingress comes with the territory but remedial action, work-overs etc are all part of field management. Only need to have a few producers to manage as opposed to the numerous verticals that deliver far less so hopefully they’re making progress on that front.

23 a write off ? who knows but not getting an update pre Interims is disappointing but we’ll get to see the current picture next week. Most important factor is sustaining production levels as a minimum, hopefully net oil prices have softened the blow. Progress or more excuses re supply chain, stuck pipes, yada, yada.

Well, only 2 weeks to find out what they’ve been doing.

Bid is very strong and ask is weak, sp is going to ping and probably run up to news as usual !

Very little I suspect .

Oil prices continue the journey back to $100+. Currently $94 and how much extra will they be geting from MRs ? Crude increased 30% so hopefully we’re seeing $40 + from MRs snd a couple of extra bucks from Casper trading it. If that’s the case then it will be a welcome contribution when oil production reducing.

Looks like news with Interims, hopefully no delay to publication ! There shouldn’t be as there’s no audit reqt at half year.

Interims forecast ? C $11.5m t/over, still profitable but the outgoings on Divis snd Block 8 would’ve drained cash by c$6m leaving a reduced budget for operato Al activity hence the go slow. No more Divis which was draining $1.2m pm !! snd our Clive stated that it was their intention to keep them going on a quarterly basis ! That was fluent BS and accounts will show that. Poor decision making snd the only way they could’ve managed it was with the CE cash but it was management by hope not by fact !

Going forward, they will be able to facilitate the stated operational activity, especially if prices increased and no divi expenses. Still profitable whereas they have t been for 16 years so still all to play for.

As always, this will surge on the slighted snippet of good news and investor enthusiasm returns. One day they may break this rinse/repeat cycle and put sone real foundation under the sp !

Yep, gap is closing. Will they ever benefit from exports when they’d be taxed at gross Brent prices v true discounted price. That’s a stealth tax on all oil producers in Kaz. We should be benefitting from a better net price now that crude has jumped 30% and looks likely to March on to $100 again. The key Opec/Opec+ players are playing games. Saudi and Russia are holding in the volume cuts and fuel price inflation set to continue. Going to be tough again this Winter for households but it will curb the rate hikes as budgets get squeezed.

Providing Casper sustain the current production, H2 results will look much stronger than H1 and they obviously have the opp to rebuild the numbers. The barge sale is a transformational event as it enables them to push on without financial restriction. Block 8 is likely to happen and a new chapter starts and with it sone investor enthusiasm. As stated, sentiment on its arze but it won’t take much to really kick this off again but they need to build the foundations ie sustaining 3-5k bopd as that will be the cash engine to develop the business.

TT !

Crude edging its way northwards and over $92 now and nearly 30% up from recent low of c $70. Casper aren’t benefitting from the export pricing but the MR sales are very profitable from a net perspective. I suspect Caspian are benefitting for improved pricing on MR and domestic sales.

Trading volume is tiny and that sums up current PI sentiment. The 15% that are still invested are sitting tight waiting for the next episode of Carverspeak. There’s meant to be plenty going on and as it stands, it looks like we’re going to get an update with the 23 Interims, I’m hoping we get news sooner.

We all know the current negative ie declining MJF volume but we know what expectations are in H2, to get the offline wells producing again. As stated, hopefully net oil prices are increasing and worst case they’re sustaining prod levels. The extra $2-3 from oil trading will also help and by my sums, they can run the operational schedule, especially as no £1m pm divi to pay.

I’m up to the gunnels with stock, if I wasn’t I’d be a buyer here but no more ‘rude not too’ buts for moi. Need to see some positives now that will improve financials and with it, investor confidence.

Worst case we have to wait 2 weeks for news but hopefully a positive update before .

To add. This company has survived on fumes for years, generating far less income and relying on Oil Traders, Kuat etc to ensure that it was funded. Making more money from domestic and MRs today and crude back up to $90 so hopefully a few more $ in the bank. They’ve lost 500bopd or c$500k pm (Gross) and dropped the $1.25m divi so as I see it, they’re $750k pm better off. Build the prod back up to 3k+ with a couple of shallows and they’re in great shape.

Warning heeded ! My better half is the seafarer and she was laughing at the twin engines and poodling over to IOW v travelling farther afield ! Single motor big enough and room for 6 so a mid sized rib more than adequate, hopefully it’s a quick learning curve :)

Our KO converted his $6.4m and he’s not winning on that transaction currently. He’s all in and let’s hope that he’s going to make the right decisions to steer this back to double figures. As we know, it won’t take much but currently, Shin and his team are failing so decisions need to be made as to whether the current deeps will ever deliver. Is the geology to difficult, are they skilled enough, are there easier targets etc. walking away from A block will be difficult or maybe selling it but they’ve done most of the work so finish off the mess exiensive sidetracks and perforations and make a call. If it’s failure, they’ll complete work at NY deeps and qualify that in or out and probably move on to Block 8. Still enough in play to make investors a few quid .

Hi Mike,

Good for you .

Just back from Lymington, house hunting and looking for a Rib ! understand you’re allowed to speed and can have a drink :) can’t believe how quick they are !! Not a seafarer but I can cope with a little return trip to the IOW as long as there’s a meal and some wine involved. Some real bargains for used but need to test one out. Just need Casper to get a move on so I can afford the fuel to feed those twin 300 Hp Mercury motors ;)