Member Info for SmartyP1

Morning Mike,

I just wouldn’t trust them to manage the cash effectively, if it was cash and no asset acquisition and production replacement. We’re really out of control at that juncture and much that they come to shareholders as regulatory procedure, there’s nothing we can do to vote it down as they have the control. Also the WCP haven’t had a return here and they’ve stayed in play do I suspect they’d be interested in a few pennies but not if it dilutes the operation, that’s crazy !

The fact that they announced the intention to sell means that it’s probably not too far away but yet again, they’ve got previous for announcing and not following through !

The CE cash is going to inject $10m + so if that happens we have the cash for recapitalisation but sake proceeds spent on NAV improvement please, whatever that looks like .

If the shallows are sold then great PROVIDING deal value is equal to or in excess of NAV. Then there’s the utilisation of sale proceeds and one thing we don’t want to see is cash extraction by way of divi. Possibly great for short termers but certainly not for LTHs as it’ll be dilutive . The company has said that proceeds will be utilised for the funding of new development assets and that’s what I want to see, certainly not a dividend unless the deal is over NAV. Currently we have an asset delivering $26m a year inc oil trading and much that the vokumes fluctuate, it’s a dependable asset that we can attribute value to whereas cash can be extracted and value diluted.

As posted, I sincerely hope that if there is a sale then the ‘developing new assets’ is B8 and we can immediately increase reserves if 2 new wells are producers. Then could come the challenge of transportation if we’re fortunate enough to see higher flow rates from B8, so infrastructure costs would be a next so they need to conserve cash. Even more relevant if we’re fortunate enough to see our first Airshagyl/NY deep success.

CC also mentions the international oil market and the likelihood of reverting back to export so where’s that 70k+ coming from ?

Feet firmly on the ground but quietly optimistic of making a good return this year :)

Blimey. I pop out for a couple of beers with the boys and it’s postmania ….lol

I’ve been having a bit of nostalgia time looking back to 2014 and the initial A5 result and was going to summarise out last 10 years ! but looks like CC has been left to his own devices today….lol keep up the good work ;)

Morning Diver,

I’m reading back over old Toxi RNSs. I’m not on Twitter or X but do you have the link to that flaring video when the sidetrack was flowing with gusto or does anyone else have it. Shows the newbies what’s possible here.

Typo on A5 flowing, 15 not 25 days but we all have seen it most of us have seen the flaring video when they flowed oil during last sidetrack.

Re licence timing. Yep, it took an age to resume the SY licence but it was during a difficult time ie Covid, war, riots etc.

https://www.rogtecmagazine.com/caspian-sunrise-receives-25-year-production-license-for-south-yelemes/

As Leveller, stated this morning, read the RNS carefully.

Primary message, if they sell the shallows, their direction is that monies will be spent on NEW development assets where their expertise is greatest. Not sure where their expertise is greatest so what is that ? More shallows that need development ? Don’t see that as why sell existing that need development ? doesn’t make sense. More acreage with deep opportunity or deep and shallow ? a possibility . As posted, it could be Block 8. It makes sense to me as it’s a producing field albeit minor currently but has 4 deep structures and soon to have a new licence. Why do this deal if the new drilling is unsuccessful ? They’ve drilled the wells and they'll know whether they've encountered oil on the way down to TD and why continue to acquire it if it's a failure. Don't believe they've tested yet as it would change the negotiation so hopefully we don't wait too long for licence approval. One thing I don’t want to see is a windfall divi and cash extraction exercise, they have to replace with production.

The licence upgrade on the BNG deeps is also interesting as they believe 803 completes requirements. The change in oil trading regulations is good news for Casper providing they can convert the deeps. I agree 100% on them focussing on 803 and A5. 802 flowing @ 700-900bopd before blockage and 803 1250m into a 3900m TD, maybe 4200m if first target uncommercial. Then there’s A5, our best well that flowed at 3800 bopd for 25 days allegedly but now a new sidetrack could be completed this qtr and any success here is a company maker.

They also state that they could start exporting oil which will give another boost to share price but need to see production above 70k on a monthly basis. If they do sell the shallows then this is a strange thing to say unless they have production to replace it with ? This leads back to B8 wells and maybe they’re expecting a result on 803/A5. If they do succeed then it’s onto 801/802/A7 and 6 remedial work as part of the appraisal process to book reserves.

Then we have CE cash to hit the coffers in Q3 so hopefully no hiccups there especially as they’ve spent money readying the barge. Hopefully any signed contract would cover any costs incurred in the event of cancellation or delay but not so sure with Caspian.

The multi-bagging upside is still in play and 24 looks to be a defining year for shareholders. No guarantees but you’ve got to be in it to win it or lose it !

Yep there are but I’m hoping that they don’t undersell it . Providing it’s a significant offer, what do they do with the cash ? A windfall divi ? much that I’d like a chunk of cash, that’s not the right strategy and I hope that they’ve got another asset(s) to replace. CC talks about 70000 bopd+ and international sales so where’s that volume coming from ? Block 8 or another ? Current deeps are not in play (yet) so I’d be very uncomfortable with a sale without a new/existing producing asset. Let’s hope that they have a strategy that strengthens fundamental value, now and going forwards.

Https://scholarworks.uark.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1044&context=anrlaw#:~:text=The%20oldest%20and%20truest%20rule,third%20the%20current%20market%20value.

How do we value MJF/SY ? MJF P1 is c 15 mboe and P2 is c 26m so what number is used ? Is possible included too ? Next the value of the oil in the ground $5 for proven, ? probable ? and possible ?

They’re stating that the value will be over the carry valuation so what is that. WHI like using the word SIGNIFICANT so let’s see if we can get to a realistic valuation.

Have asked the question of HQ but one they’re probably unlikely to answer !

Edit: 2.7m sells v 3.4m buys. Investors adding, newbies getting involved after seeing 30 points plus on the risers board, stale bulls exiting and traders taking a profit. Great to see sp bounce off the lows, the big question, whereto next ?

This is a traders dream, especially for those who loaded up in the early 2s and disposed a few today. As far as I can see there’s c 2.65m sells and 2.2m buys yet we’re up 25%, a great result in my book.

As Wolfi stated, this corporate activity was highlighted with the latest IP that came out of the blue last October.

This RNS is contradictory or should I say a little confusing as with many Casper news releases.

So what is actually going on ? Firstly, shallows up for sale , part or whole for the right price they state the carrying price so what is that ? If MJF continued to flow at these levels and current net prices for the remaining licence period it would generate c $350m net. Whatever the sale price, they state that It would provide funding for NEW development assets so by that I assume they’re buying something else. I suspect that this is Block 8, if so it’s likely that we’re about to get positive news on that front following licence approval.

If they sell MJF/SY then only prod in group is 100bood from 2 existing B8 wells. They talk about selling oil to the export marketplace if monthly prod exceeds 70000 bopd so without MJF, where is that coming from ?

They plan to gain the full production licence on the BNG deeps. That makes the asset saleable but the true value is only realised when they flow one in each structure. Any MJF proceeds will attract CGT so surely there has to be a purchase in play so yet again this could be Block 8 in its entirity or something else ?

They have their drilling assets in their services business which could be used to farm in to other projects. They have the CE charter in play with other parties interested in utilising in offshore projects. That makes sense as Tokayev is pushing offshore projects to international players.

KO is not getting younger and I don’t believe his son or Shin will be taking charge and the end game here has always been exit. Proving up the deep assets on BNG/B8 is where they make the big bucks. Sell the company is the most tax efficient exit v breaking it up and selling the individual parts.

A5 has been the most exciting deep drilled to date so returning to that whilst simultaneously drilling 803 on NY which is meant to be the highest COS, means that they could prove up both structures this year.

Block 8 status ? why continue if it’s a duffer. One could argue that KO & Bolthazan will lose the asset by not meeting the licence commitments so they had to drill the 2 new wells. Who knows but it won’t be too long before we know the true position there.

2024 won’t be a boring year for investors as there’s plenty happening that will continue punter speculation. Is it the end game this year or next for Casper ? Corporate interest in the shallows would probably lead to interest in acquiring the whole company ? Answers on a postcard :)

Hmmmmmm, don’t know what to make of that. Why would they sell shallows when it is the current cash cow ? The offer has to be significant and the reason cited, the lack of trading licences hence corporate interest ?

Applying for full production licence on the deeps after 803 ? That means no more exploration post completion of A7. Another group of assets up for sale ?

Block 8 final regulatory approval is the licence renewal before releasing the sale of current prod from 2 existing wells and testing of the other 2. Is B8 flowing ? Is Caspian looking to buy the whole interest upon sale of MJF ?

Production @ 1700. Obviously struggling to maintain prod levels but SY structures HD approach could add volume to wells planned. Are they using potential sale cash to buy other assets eg B8 ? or other ?

CE considerable cash spent on pre work, let’s hope that this deal happens. This is why they’ve been on a go slow, especially as they’ve added B8 to the spend list.

Interest in more offshore projects could see more revenue.

Possibly looking to sell oil on international markets ? Won’t be any oil if they sell MJF/SY so a tad contradictory ? Is B8 a likely producing asset ?

BNG deeps. Keeping these if they sell shallows ? Full production licence application post licence commitments ? Are they up for sale too after proving one up. They state that trading licences are difficult to attain due to changes in licence approval process. Up for sale too ?

As you say, it’s been written down but there was a chance that they would get a contribution of a few $m towards it. That was Kuat’s best sweetheart deal but he offset that by not taking the P with the CE when he could have. If the CE charge goes ahead then it will go a long way to balancing the transactions !

News this week ? Good, bad or indifferent ? Hopefully there are some positives but regardless, loads of operational news in Q2/3 that could transform the landscape.

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/new-operators-needed-for-five-oil-and-gas-fields-and-six-exploration-blocks-in-kazakhstan/2-1-1499570

You can see that many blocks are more than affordable.

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/kazakhstan-puts-two-blocks-back-on-offer-after-previous-winners-failed-to-pay/2-1-1609672

Maybe a bit rich for Casper BUT there will be many blocks up for grabs and some in their price bracket. Kaz need foreign investment but also keen to award to local players. Some of us will be saying, oh no not more opportunity when they can’t convert existing but I can see them continuing to build that asset base regardless.

3024 …….lol , god help us if we’re still here then !!. This year for me and have to see some really positive developments that moves this back to double figures :)

MMS were still offering volume at 2.675 at the close. Obviously they’re short of stock and they know that end of Q1 will probably see an update. Silly spread but true market was 2.675-2.78 but 2.8p for larger orders and mid price nearer 2.75p.

Some positive news sees this break out of the doldrums but the gravity of that move depends on the quality of news. That said, what will a holding announcement do ie everything progressing as per plan but no great material news. Providing there’s no negative news, the sp should start to tend north on pure expectation of a busy 3024. Whether that yields great news is yet to be seen but I don’t believe we’ve ever had a year with so much operational activity planned. The CE cash will be critical to fulfilling those plans. 24 the year of the Casper ? let’s hope so.

BM,

The bid has strengthened regardless of last sell. 600k @ 2.675 and lesser prices up to 1.35m. Somebody wants your stock so why sell ?? beats me !!

somebody offloading a few at 2.651p, each to their own.

cc, no trading for me, i’m loaded beyond loaded. re news, the last update was a quick *** packet gone on the loo ! hopefully next update includes some positivity. investors i speak to are still concerned re certainty of the ce deal so some concrete info would be good news as the ce cash is not factored in and if they land the first charter, there’s obviously a fair chance that it could generate

we know they’ve been tight on cash thanks to divi payments and b8 cost. they took out the $5m loan facility and the slow progress on 803 and other deeps is evidence that cash is tight. ce cash is important as is continued production and i suspect t that they will add more acreage at some juncture. shin’s korean links and the kazakh govt’s desire for exploration will mean that blocks will become available to those who want to spend cash meeting licence commitments and building gdp.

as has been said over and over, build the shallow production to their stated target and beyond whilst continuing the deep strategy until they commercialise one. if not get somebody in but obviously nobody is buying yet.

news next week ? makes sense at end of qtr so let’s see what we get .

CC,

You should write the RNSs….lol

Et al,

Bid very strong at 1.3m, 500k above bid at 2.651p and ticks up due. We all know the planned operational schedule and allegedly there’s loads planned , for a recap, look at Diver’s list. Never had so much on and if CE cash lands then who knows maybe a divi contribution but I’d rather it be spent on the priority assets with the highest COS. Whenever you get in, add or hold, the next 9 months will be busy on the news front but as always, nothing guaranteed .