Member Info for SmartyP1

Mike,

Benny, Daehann etc, neither are they :).

That was a great find by Adrianz and I for one can’t understand how and why they’ve not RNS’d it ? most odd indeed. I can’t find anything in Casper comms to state that they were clearing the well? Last comms stated they were planning a side-track then nothing in the following update ?

Why isn’t the sp flying on anticipation of a positive result? Obviously history has softened our expectations but I’m happy to see it being done, they must have milled out the stuck pipe, tubing and anything else that’s been lost down there over the last 10 years. If it does flow, our Absolute may be looking at a different deal, if not, somebody else will.

803 must be through the salt by now and down at 3000m hopefully, not long to wait there and B8 too.

A chunk of cash coming their way, add in CE and B8 loan and some production, what’s not to like. This will win again BUT if A5 flowed, it’s a game changer, all for 3.5p . I be helping it along ;)

What a funny ole day. 90% of the trade pre 12. I suspect we see more trades published after hours but 3.3-2.2 in favour of sells and still blue but bid weak. Some positive news on CE and B8 will kick this on or a surprise on any other of the assets. As always, tick, tock.

Current m/cap c £80m pre Bolthazan allocation for WS. £7.5m to come in for CE and £5m loan to be repaid on B8. So c £65m of cash. Still have all assets in the portfolio and company view is $60m+. Not many AIM cos with a fair % of NAV in cash, what they do with it is obviously key.

They've bought WS and were going to know very shortly whether that's a producer BUT that's not the big news. It's all about the deeps at BNG and B8. They're applying for a production licence post 803 completion, why ? They've either got some production to be announced or they're confident of getting some whether that's through their endeavors or via a partner. What happens if the deeps flow ? There'll be a CPR and the assets will be sold for a very tidy profit but that depends on reserves

Cc,

Re selling, we're going to get it all the way back to double figures and many LTHs will exit. If the news is good enough, many will stay in and hopefully we get new players in the game as the investor base needs that.

This news will sink in over the next few days. It may retrace a bit further or maybe thus is the bottom and we move from here. The next news drives the next move north and that's B8 and CE, then who knows , A5 and 803 probably.

Sp is on its arze and this stock needs new PIs, that's a fact.

Also the oil trading revenue on all domestic @ $10 per barrel. Is that to be retained if so they’ll be trading for Absolute ? I asked the question this morning .

Posted this on ADVFN in response to a question or statement re the historic costs of c$15m. This is the remains licence cost from the $32m.

‘Yes it is the licence commitment cost and if sale goes through, net proceeds will be c £55m not $.

Et al,

What’s next ?

They’ve stated that that their skill set is not best suited to managing a maturing field so what is their skill set ? If it’s not on the easier shallows then it’s certainly not on the deeps so I can see them being on the menu following the shallow sale completion. If they do sell BNG deeps then a CPR is on its way and obviously value will be dependant on whether an A block or NY block well flows. Are they going to partner with somebody to bring them home ?

What about Block 8 ? They’d probably sell that too for the right price or do they keep that along with WS and add more assets from any BNG disposal ?

Then there’s the CE. Continue to charter, sell it or use it to get involved on a free carry basis for a smaller % of offshore drilling projects with the big boys ?

Then there’s their drilling services business, they’ll probably add more rigs and farm in to other projects or build revenues through rental route.

Next ? more acquisitions and not all in the OE field. I can see mining and wind landing from the Oraziman portfolio of assets.

Also our Shin. He’s connected to KNOC and I can see more asset acquisitions from their disposals.

Still all to play for and serious money to be made.

Yep, 1.4m on bit and 300k ask, ready to rebound. MMS are making a killing with a .21p spread.

CC,

I’m not unhappy with the sale price and as communicated by the co it was above Cary value but I suppose it depends on your assessment of ‘significant’.

They had to generate cash and I’m happy with it providing other assets start doing the same. CE is worth $60m+ if you believe the company and the balance sheet is healthy. Next steps BNG deeps . CPR coming our way and the story continues.

’.

Plenty of selling but this will settle down on the realisation that they’ve generated a chunk of cash BUT not what many commentators were alluding to. The big news is the deeps and they couldn’t be selling the shallows if there wasn’t production likely from other assets. CE cash will hopefully add to the bin shortly and I fully expect B8 inflow from loan repayment and production to hit too. The story continues but no guarantees that the deal is concluded as yet.

Well, it's more than the carry value on the books and this won't be the last asset they sell. BNG deeps next and that'll be significant. They've said it themselves, they're not skilled enough and I believe that there will be new partner heading our way that can price up the acreage.

They'll be left with a load of cash and possibly 2 producing assets ie B8 and WS and a barge that won't generate cash probably but instead will be a ticket to get involved in larger projects but they won't be involved in the drilling.

If the deal concludes, then I fully expect to see A Block and NY on the shopping list. There is NO value in the sp for those assets and the sale price could be 'significant' if they prove up any well ie 802/3 or A5 etc.

The question then is, what's next ? Is B8 flowing ie the new wells ?

Add inn3AB ? Need another drink ! Edit, Block 8 and if that happened, the billion barrel hype is in okay and this gets very stupid indeed.

Keep up the good work Somm, you must be top of the leaderboard now.

155 and 806 this quarter but I believe B8 comes first as will an update on the Abay block. 806 and 155 will hopefully add some production but as you state, it’s all about reserves from the deeps. If A5 was/is in play, that is hugely material as it then opens the door to a full blown CPR, especially if 803 flows or hey can fix 802 which was meant to be Casper’s best chance of success. Add in 3AB and it gets very silly as investor hype goes ballistic. It’s what we want but will it happen? We’ll know a lot more in the very near term. If they did get A5, 802 or 803 to flow, then BNG will get sold as the bigger boys line up. It’ll be their game then and the Orazimans do very well as do all who are riding on those coat tails. That’s what PIs are here for and hoping that the long awaited shareholder value creation happens this year !

Buys in ascendancy and last two trades were buys.

Next news probably CR update or B8 licence approval. The Qazakstan Monitor article I posted the other day dated 30/4 re licence agreements highlights the 3 new exploration targets for 2024 to date. I’ve highlighted the important paragraph and we should see news on Abay block very shortly imo .

‘Plans for new exploration wells: Subsurface users aim to drill over 80 new sites in 2024. This includes starting drilling at the Turgai Paleozoic for a deep well reaching 5,500 meters to uncover potential oil and gas reserves. Work will also commence at the Abay block in the Kazakhstan sector of the Caspian Sea. The users also work to start drilling at several sites – Karaton (5,500m deep), Aday block (6,900m deep), Maksat structure (6,200m deep), Say-Utes site (5,250m deep), and Block A (6,900m deep).’

Looking at trades, it’s pretty even and looks like rollover day to me. Last trade naked down as sell as below the mid but true market is 3.31-3.349, very tight

Yep, we have continued selling but for those with a bullish outlook and looking to add it’s good news . News publication getting nearer and there should be plenty of it :)

Max buy 150k, max sell 325k

I’m not seeing that. Bid strengthening up to 175k at 3.336 and ask weakened to max buy @ 3.397. Time to start moving back up :)

CC,

I have no problem with other research,Twitter or whatever medium, especially if it’s material. It’s important that we all do as much research as possible and to share it. I do chat with Clive to test understanding as we all know we have to be experts in RNS translation but there are other members of the team past and present that can be approached. Also the other PIs who are heavily invested too and they all have a handle or opinion on proceedings. I think it’s important that shareholders meet at events like AGMs, it’s important to show the company that we’re interested, worst case we have a few beers too. If the company see our importance, events like Open Offers/Rights could be in play.

We all want to make a healthy return here and it’s time that they walk the talk and the next 3 months will definitely show us that. I do believe there’s corporate activity going on and I believe we’ll know more in H2.

CC,

I have a different view on the breadcrumb trail and maybe we’ll have that discussion f2f at some juncture. Kairat story is interesting as is the AMs and Benny got that matter. Also interesting stories on the other large holders, Daehann, Kazakhs etc.

I feel that we are primed for a big move north starting H2. We should see CE news very soon if the project is starting in July. Then the B8 licence approval which triggers inflow of more cash pre testing new deeps drilled. A5? I have my view but we’ll know either way . The shallows sale is obviously big news too but it could be bigger than that. If they were selling the company then well not be getting any news as they’ll be in DD mode.

We’re going to make money from here and there should be another do move north very shortly. The big question, does the news give us the real foundations to move us on to double figures ? Not long to find out .

Mike, that sounds like fun :) ready to get in a race car but not on the water ! Love seafood and looking at the sea it stops there but Mrs loves it !! Going to have to learn or better still, employ a skipper or make friends with somebody capable who likes a nice lunch.

Content earlier, edit Contango !