Member Info for skier1

Kantar says Tesco's UK supermarket share has plunged from 31% in 2012, to 28% in 2021, falling further to 27% in Sep 2022.

Tesco is losing marketshare every year. Death by a thousand cuts.

Aldi has quadrupled from 2% share in 2012 to 9% in Sep 2022.

The direction of travel is (very) clear.

Kantar does a good (independent) job of tracking the supermarket numbers, and Aldi is clearly racing past everyone. Growing at 15-20%, while almost everyone else is shrinking or flat (including Tesco).

The denial here is quite staggering. The German firms have been smashing the British grocery market for two decades -- getting bigger and bigger every single year. The pace is now accelerating. Yet, so many people remain convinced it is not happening! Just incredible.

Looks like this could slide to 4-8p faster even than I'd imagined!

As predicted, latest numbers show the German discounters are crushing the British supermarkets in H2 2022. Aldi is picking up millions of new customers every few weeks! We are witnessing, and living thru, the end of the UK supermarket industry. Sad times.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63015985

Don't let short-termist markets get in the way of a long-term strategic budget. Giving people their money back is a wise move. Don't overtax the rainmakers.

The BoE is the villain here. The BoE 0.50% should have matched the US Fed 0.75%. Instead, they mismatched the Fed and went (way) too low. A calamitous error. Governor Bailey has a history of failure in other jobs. Let's see if they call an emergency BoE meeting next week, and correct their quite staggering mistake.

Nothing wrong with a hard day's work.

The UK lowest-paid are at their highest ever level of pay in history, thanks to the soaring minimum wage, soaring free benefits, and record-low income taxes. The state will even give them free electricity this winter. Entry-level workers have (literally) never had it so good.

Lots of chatter online this evening that the Bank of England will have to call an emergency meeting next week, hike interest rates another 0.5% or more, and stop the collapse in the pound (which is plunging -3% a day!)...

The ruble is a minor global currency. It has halved against the dollar this century. The recent ruble bounce in 2022 is driven by Russia's very high interest rates, stricter capital controls due to war, and booming oil-gas prices that rake in excess dollars / euros. The EU, for example, has handed (far) more cash to Russia for oil and gas this year than it has given to Ukraine.

The UK state has already made dramatic changes to helping entry-level workers in the past 10-15 years. Some might say, too much. Over half of all UK households are now on one or more free state benefits. Six million people are on free state disability benefits. It is already possible to make £15-20k and pay (literally) zero tax. The state will even top up your wages, for free. The state is paying half of most people's energy bills this winter. The state is going to pay (subsidize) half of everyone's bus fare travel or commute from Jan 2023. You can get a free car, paid for by the state. Healthcare is free. Dentistry is free. Home care for poor elderly is free. Furlough for covid workers was free. The list of support for the bottom half of the country is gigantic, and it goes on and on and on. Time to stop the faux narrative that there is no help for the lower-paid. It is not true.

Clark

To be fair, the dollar is crushing almost every major currency on Earth. Not just the pound. The yen has collapsed -30%, the pound is down -20%, the euro has also slumped -20% and dropped under 1 dollar. There is a flight to American safety.

Agree on the BoE. They have been far too timid and slow. The Bank of Sweden hiked their rate this week by +1%. The BoE should've done the same. Nip the inflation mindset in the bud.

How patient do you plan to be? The ANIC share price today is lower than 9 years ago. The FTSE 100 hasn't budged since the last century. Waiting decades for no return is not investment, it's folly.

It's a great budget. Turning the tide on tax creep. The 45% income tax cut is especially welcome. The narrative has changed. Time for taxes to come down. Give the people their own money back.

Not sure that handing someone £1m of free cash, for counting some beans on an abacus, in a company with modest revenue, in what is a fairly simple industry, while the share price collapses -60%, and a dividend cut looks on the horizon, is aligned with shareholders' interests.

"...Monarchy has to change, but so does Parliament"...

UK parliaments need to change, for sure. They are hugely overstaffed, and have way way more MPs per-head than just about any other country on planet Earth. Our parliaments are absurdly overstaffed.

The UK monarchy, however, does not need to change in any way whatsoever. It is the world's richest, most successful, most famous, most powerful monarchy by far on the entire planet. Some 4 billion people, half the world, watched the Queen's funeral. The world loves the (unmatched) Disney pomp. The King heads the Commonwealth, by far the largest population block in history and on planet Earth. Bigger than China and America. Don't de-royal the royals. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Anything not traditional meat is out of investor fashion again, for now, whether that be veggy, vegan, lab, or any other. Lab meat has been in commercial development for 10+ years, but it can still only make a few kilos a day. We have fallen into the trough of disappointment.

Anyone who thinks lab meat, fish or milk can swerve the global environment of soaring food / ingredients / input / worker inflation costs is naive. Lab meat is already very expensive -- and staying higher for longer (due to inflation). Not even Biden's recent executive order for US lab meat could stop the downslide here!

Plato

"...Is my idea of endless suburbs across most of the UK any better?"...

That is pretty much where the UK has landed already. The govt (shrewdly) uses housebuilding to foster an illusion of economic growth. People see new houses going up on the edge of their town, and assume there must be important new growth ahead. Unfortunately, housebuilding is just a short-term sticky plaster. It employs a few low-skill builders on 30k for a few months, and then the economic activity is gone. Classic British short-termism.

We drove up thru the Midlands last month. It was a depressing drive. Everything green being concreted over, with sterile and pointless newbuilds every 5 miles or so.

Meat alternatives are currently out of fashion, food / ingredients inflation is soaring out of control, the world is headed for recession, raising funds is getting ever more expensive, and yet another placing / dilution looks on the horizon. A heck of a lot of red flags here.

What happened here? Thought the magic powder was gonna be a blockbuster!

Chart momentum now looks very bearish here. Keeping a close eye on this one. Might be able to grab some at the 4-8p range.

Parkez

The CGNR shares have collapsed an astonishing -99.9%. Decades of pump and place. Only one group been getting rich here ;-)