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Truss's tax package is only adding a tiny 1-2% extra to UK debt.

Yup, the UK panic and hysteria is absurdly overblown. The UK pension, gilt and mortgage industries this afternoon are on the brink of collapse. And for what? An insignificant 1-2% addition to state debt? Remainer told-you-so revenge? We are one weird country :-(

The US is only the world's 8th richest country by GDP per head. US is running at 134% total state-debt-to-GDP ratio. UK is at a much-lower 103%. US budget deficit is running at -14%. UK is at a much-lower -8%.

The pound hysteria is confected nonsese. It's time to stop.

The China Shanghai SSE stockmarket index has plunged a huge -20% in the past year. The UK FTSE 100 is flat, at just -1% right now.

China GDP growth this quarter has dipped (way) below the Asia region average, for the first time in decades. The economy is in a mess.

Darth

It's hysterical, confected nonsense, mate.

The US has just borrowed $600,000,000,000.00 to give its middle-class voters a free (student loan) debt and tax giveaway right before their Nov midterm elections. It absolutely dwarfs the UK $20-50b net giveaway. No G7 country is raising taxes (like the UK planned). All G7 countries are holding or cutting taxes post-covid (like the UK is now doing). The US has more state debt. The US has more recession. The US has faster-plunging house prices. The US has relatively faster-soaring inflation. The US had an attempted coup just a few quarters ago. And, yet, the UK is getting all the grief. It's nonsense.

The US just borrowed $600,000,000,000.00 to cut American student (loan) debts and taxes for free.

Lots of other countries worldwide are borrowing to head-off the post-covid recession.

The markets and press have massively overreacted to the Tory tax tweaks. Net-net, they are adding barely 1-2% to UK state debt. It's a drop in the bucket. The hysteria is obviously a confected "crisis".

And, as mentioned, yesterday. Go look at CDS swaps for UK gilts. They are pretty much unchanged. The insurance markets think / know this is a storm in a teacup.

Time to move on.

LTI

It's not one for me, mate. Suspect TSCO will bounce off the 200p support line, and you may well grab a quick 5-10% win there. But the mid- / long-term outlook for Tesco is very bearish. They are are being massively outcompeted by Aldi, Lidl and Amazon, and losing UK grocery marketshare every few months.

That +11% UK food inflation feels like a massive underestimate. We were in Co-op last week and everything that used to be "1 quid" pre-covid is now "3 quid". Ham, chicken, olives, etc. are ridiculous. I'd say YoY food inflation is nearer 20-50% today.

Not sure I'd be investing in Tesco. It's like trying to catch a falling knife. The Germans (Aldi-Lidl) and Americans (Amazon) are taking over. The British supermarket and retail industries are drawing to a close. Investing in a declining business rarely ends well.

Keep in mind... Almost all London financial analysts, UK financial journalists, US-global foreign correspondents, civil service, MPs, and Euro MPs are *Remainers*... The blob... They lost to Brexit in 2016... They never forgot their humiliation and despair... Now, the blob want their revenge ;-)

The charts here are starting to look very bearish. Share momentum is weak. China is a socio-economic mess and it's dragging down the Asia region sentiment. Wouldn't be surprised to see this dip under 250p in the coming months.

Nuri

Yup, UK Plc is in freefall. Almost every big and medium UK-run company is in long-term relative decline. The London stockmarket looks all but dead.

Nic

Wouldn't touch it with a bargepole, mate. UK inflation is out of control and hammering the insurance unit. UK and global recession will hammer the travel and cruise division. Any bad new Covid variants this winter will send the stock plummeting further.

Will keep an eye on it, and may be tempted to jump in at the 10-30p level.

Lol.

The top 1% pay 30% of all UK income tax. The rich are already taxed up the wazoo.

It's great to see Truss give the people more of their money back. Normal folks are tired of the creep of Marxist taxation. Let the people spend their own money.

Time to stop the politics of envy and bitterness toward successful people.

Lol.

The SAGA share price has collapsed an astonishing -95% in 5 years. One of the worst stockmarket investments in all of global human history. Momentum here now is ultra-bearish. Every major part of its business, from travel to cruise to insurance, is in long-term relative decline and forever facing new headwinds every few quarters.

Wouldn't be a surprise to see this slide to the 25-50p range by 2023, and then get sold off abroad on the cheap to an American, European or Chinese firm.

This all looks a lot like Remainer-led, short-termist hysteria.

If you want to really know what the global markets *truly* think of Truss's new tax policies, then go look at the UK *credit default swaps* (CDS) for GBP gilt insurance -- they are today pretty much *unchanged*.

In other words, the global markets think there is *zero* chance of the UK defaulting on its debt bills. Truss's extra tax policies have made *no difference whatsoever* to the pound's ability to payback its debts.

The CDS market says this is a storm in a teacup.

"...You asked what the solution was. It's really quite simple, tax the f*cking rich and stop shafting the poor. A higher floor lifts everyone up"...

Sounds like the politics of envy.

You are more successful than me, so I'm going to steal it from you...

Fact is -- the top 1% today pay 30% of all UK income tax. The UK already has one of most oppressive tax regimes for the rich in the entire world. It is one reason (of several) why Britain has zero billionaires in the top-100 global list. Zero. None.

The UK poor are in their best-ever position in history. You can make £15-20k a year and pay zero tax. The UK poor have access to one of the most generous tax-lite systems in the entire world. Entry-level wages for workers are at their highest ever level in history. You can get a colleague fired for saying a rude word. And get free compo for it. Worker protections are stronger than ever. The poor can also claim a free house, free council tax, free car, free phone, free data, free electricity, free gas, free cash, free 4-star hotel, free bus travel, free telly, free education, free healthcare, free dental care, on and on. The UK state is astonishingly generous to the entry classes (and increasingly the middle classes).

Time to stop the red hysteria and politics of envy.

Ten banks pulling mortgages.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11253459/Mortgage-mayhem-TEN-banks-counting-pull-house-loans-sale-panic-plunging-pound.html

Surprised there is not more comment on the Halifax move today. Withdrawing mortgage deals is a serious development -- it has echos of 2008, as markets gum up.

If there is also an emergency BoE rate rise before end-week, there could be chaos in the coming weeks. For example, LLOY may head back down to the 30s.

It is a sure sign of the ongoing collapse in the London stockmarket. Europe's 9th largest dealer (PDG) is about to be swallowed by a tiny Swedish dealer half its size. And at a tiny 7 x PE valuation. Quite incredible, really.