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Trying to work out the revenue from this... getting a graphite price is not easy as it varies dramatically depending on flake size. This could be £120m per annum or £20m per annum (both huge multiples of current sp but the lower estimate less exciting). Am I getting this right? Cheers

Looks good and very bullish although to my untrained eye it doesn’t give a lot of new info ha the drilling report we already had. What surprised me was this drilling report didn’t lead to a huge uptick in SP... maybe this will...

I assume we are expecting a dosing complete RNS for phase 3 before we can get excited by results? Looking back at previous RNS we got a phase 2 commencement RNS on 31/03 and a dosing complete on 28/05. This was for 100 patients but I would like to think that 600 patients across 20 countries should have been easy to find but maybe the bottle neck is internal on limiting how many can be monitored at a time.

From 28/05 it was nearly another 2 months for prelim results. Not sure if this is standard but if we are still aiming for early summer results then I would hope for a dosing finished RNS this month.

Interestingly the home trial phase 2 RNS had dosing complete at 20/01 so using the hospital phase 2 timelines we are overdue results but in fairness they did say Q2 which means they never expected to repeat the study as quick (I suspect because it is less of a priority than phase 3 and maybe even an unwanted distraction !?). Nevertheless I guess it is not unreasonable to hope for early Q2 for results but like others have said - it may give a small boost (if positive) but the real prize is phase 3 (and Activ 2).

On a side note I do also worry that he hometrial may briefly knock confidence. We were recruiting anyone over 65 who have something like a 4% death rate so 60 placebo you would maybe expect 2 deaths. Best case for SNG patients is 0 deaths. You only need the 60 placebo patients to outperform the avg by 1 person and/or 1 patient to have died despite SNG and we may not demonstrate anything exciting (because of sample size and recruitment criteria).

Anyway that’s where I see this now. Hopefully this was a waste of time and a game changing RNS lands in 35 mins.

It would have been nice if they had given some more info regarding the remaining income and the contract status surrounding this. As others are saying. That income alone is enough to justify an investment case but only of that income is set to stay.

Its a tempting price to buy back in but not tempting enough for me without a more comprehensive forward looking plan.

If there is a stockpile being built of LFT tests from a consortium of developers/producers then I cannot see how Avacta can be one of those if we have not had a Clinical validation RNS. I really don’t see a scenario where we go from today’s knowledge to an update which not only announces that we have a clinical validation but also have had this for
Sometime but didn’t RNS it as we wanted to surprise you all with the great news that we are also part of the mass stockpile in line with the government announcement.... people who are lying in bed this morning dreaming this are the same people who spend a lot of time saying what they would do if they won the lottery.

I’m pretty clear that the next RNS will be (hopefully) to confirm clinical validation. We will then (hopefully) either on days or weeks start reporting on contracts we have won. Whether these contracts are with the uk government to take some of the slack of the testing programme is anyone’s guess and depends how easy they can get out of contracts signed already.

From the bbc article it sounds like it’s the innova test they are planning to role out. My wife’s a teacher and we are already using this every 3 days. It’s like a science experiment with the amount of instructions and do’s/don’ts. That said I have no faith that the government care too much and would not be surprised to continue seeing the Chinese LFT test continue to arrive through our letterbox.

Presumably at the AGM on 22nd there will be an opportunity for a vote of no confidence.

Well, an RNS to re clarify when we will get JORC would be nice rather than just silence as a missed stated deadline sails by.....

Hi

Has anyone had their placing shares yet ( I am missing mine and more importantly the 91.429% of the cash I allocated for the excess!).

Cheers

Maybe we are going to see a $400m valuation..... by raising $396m through mates rates in placings...

I see so many predictions of what a settlement/award may be should it end in our favour. I was working to £500m and deriving a 90p sp from that. This was my investment case but have seen a $200m number floated on here yesterday which at £150m would at best treble our mcap so 60p.... conversely an interview I saw quoted “billions” as our loss.... basically what makes this such a tricky investment is not only the weigh up of the likelihood of victory (I have conservatively put this at 70-30 in NANO favour) but also the sp outcome of a loss/victory... I have 6p/90p this is how I allocate my money across my portfolio but no other stock I own has such a polarised +/-. Any other viewpoints?

I appreciate that I sound pretty foolish typing this as an existing investor rather than a potential investor.....

I have just had my £9.99 spotify direct debit taken and then it occured to me that I am a bit silly putting money in a rivals bank account and I should explore switching to Napster... My £10 a month is hardly going to recover the SP but in principle it seemed right.

I googled Napster and you get 2 most obvious options:

1 - the website, upon entering the website there is nowhere obvious for me to sign up to Napster. In fact the whole site seems to be addressing commercial customers who want Napster to run their streaming service. This seems strange and were I not a shareholder I think I wouldn't bother exploring the option of switching any further.

2. The app, this takes me to the app store where I can download the app (interestingly it still says "Napster by Rhapsody"?). Looking at the details it goes on to declare the monthly price as £12.99. Well There ends my interest... I am paying the market leader £9.99 why am I going to pay £3 a month more for Napster?

I am really hoping there are some obvious and good answers to the above but on face value if I had researched (took 5 mins so hardly research) this rather than Twitter, blogs Mcap comparisons etc prior to investing I may have not bought...

Why do directors get to buy shares below the market price. I see everyone saying it’s positive etc but who wouldn’t say “yes” to shares which gain 16% in value overnight.

I understand the need for placings and understand the need for them to be done below market price but they should go down 2 routes only:

1. II’s only with rules on how long before they can sell them. No directors, no friends of directors etc

2. Open offer to all shareholders at a ratio to editing holding from the date declared. You can have this underwritten or not by an II.

Any scenario outside of this no matter how positive it may be or seem in individual cases is open to corruption.

Everytime this gets close to 8p or under I buy as much as I dare as it seems a steal to be getting under the recent placing with only good news since. I am surprised to see the board so quiet with the drop we’ve had. Still only 20 trades today all day and for once the spread is reasonable so can’t be blamed. What is it going to take to get this stock a little volume and hopefully an increase in SP.

I am now worried that even a positive JORC will do little as I’m not sure how many people will here about it...

Thanks Hawi & Frost,

I respect that they had previously stated that they wouldn't RNS each court development but I think there is a number of milestones which merit or oblige an RNS and they are at least the dates in court as well as a summary/pertinent points of a verdict. Would you expect an RNS post the 26th or do I need to be making my investment decisions on Docketbird.com!?

Regarding the fee agreed, whilst we wouldn't need every detail, to understand a capped amount or capped % would be useful. "Majority" is a vague term for an official release. Technically 51% is a majority but I think we would be disappointed with that regardless of how huge the payout would be.

Either way I am excited for the 26th and subsequent developments (assuming I find a way of being updated).

Cheers

I have been reading for a while now on this forum about the Markman hearing due in March. I have assumed that I have missed this news but a things get a little more serious I have just gone through the RNS's since litigation was announced and can only find reference to the court date in October (subject to covid delays). I am not denying that the Markman hearing is happening but was this never put out on an RNS? Seems too material not to.

Regarding the cost of litigation I have been a ware that a 3rd party has supported us on this but again today have attempted to research the cost of this... E.g. what portion do we need to handover if we win/settle? I can't see this anywhere? I would also say this is material. A lot of my calculations on investment are based on % chance of winning X likely settlement minus % chance of losing (investment being lost or minimal value). This calc has led me to slowly increase my stake here but it has occured to me that my settlement calc has no built in allowance for legal costs should we win...

Tell me I need to go to specsavers and which RNS to re-read or otherwise where do you have this information?

Thanks

Why consider investing in the placing tomorrow if you weren’t buying it today? Never seen a placing at a premium to market price.

Can I just check I have this right...

- NAPS has a Mkt Cap of £70m

- NAPS 100% own the streaming service Napster which made over £100m revenue last year (£1m profit) - not in previous financials as reverse takeover happened post half year report.

- Napster reported a 100% increase in subscribers Dec 2020 vs Dec 2019.

- Being (too) simplistic you could calculate this equaling £200m revenue for 2021 FY

Am I missing something - seems like a huge bargain to me but before I sink more savings into this I want to hear resoned arguments against (or for).

Thanks

34 stocks in your PF!!?

You have to be a maths man to handle that many!

Well I can’t sell at the moment so as exciting as the rise is it counts for nothing if you can’t sell at that price. Really wanted to top slice. Oh well.