Member Info for Skeletor

Hi All

1st time posting on this board but I want to echo what others have said about Nige_W. I am only enjoying todays rise because he highlighted this share on the TW board. Earlier this year I had a handful of good debates regarding TW and housebuilders and along with maybe 2 others he is/was one of the few posters I would occasionally search to find out their view on certain stocks (I am also in GGP which he was very excited about). I would never have met him and may have never had another online chat with him but still find myself siting here feeling sad reading that he has passed away. RIP Nige_W

It takes some very special skills to have a +129% YOY profit increase to deliver to the market but engineer the update in a way which sends the SP down 9%. I would hate June Felix to still be in charge when we have a poor trading performance to announce...

Wtf. Nearly every metric is +100% apart from the dividend which is 0%....

.... instead we are buying tastytrade for £1bn of which £700k is dilution.

Maybe this is an outstanding move but I haven’t got the time to research If it is or isn’t. What I do know is that I loved the simplicity of the igg model - cash generative, high margin, no debt, big yield paying.

Let’s see if the market is warmer to this than me. Personally my simple mind would have preferred a 100% or 50% hike in dividend and then looked forward to the price hitting 1200p.

In 2 days I think.....

They are going to be strong but how strong? I am buoyed by the following:

1. Still high volatility... When you look at the last 5 years we are bouncing around where the previous 4 years peaks were.
2. the additional active clients won't have gone away and will have continued to trade
3. Bitcoin - I have no idea how much of our revenue comes from Bitcoin being traded but this will only be helping
4. WFH - I have definitely traded more now I WFH as it is easier to do than when in a crowded office , I suspect the continued lockdown will have helped bolster numbers
5. Poor alternatives - Personally I trade on HL but it has glitched a lot recently and I suspect people will have moved across to IG

Lets see but I have bought a bit more this morning in the hope it gains at least 5-7% (should really be 15%-20% but it won't). A significant increase in Divi (not sure if we get that at interims?) would be a big deal.

Cheers

Zephi - I think some are being slightly disingenuous by not directly answering your concern regarding the vaccine effect on SNG.

In truth the existence of vaccines has had a negative effect on the SNG price. I suspect we would be in the £3.50-£4 region right now if no vaccines existed and I guess much higher if this meant we had already gained EAU.

For the good of mankind and to the detriment of SNG shareholders vaccines have been developed with a 70-90% success rate off little data - Argue all day about how successful the vaccines will be but they will be a major improvement on nothing whilst no one believes they will eradicate people dying from covid. In the history of mankind we have only ever entirely eradicated one illness through vaccination and that is smallpox. Throw into the mix the number of people who are either precluded from or refuse to be vaccinated.

You will see 100k doses month get discussed here often as that is what our CEO has stated he aims to be producing. Your first question that you need to answer is do you believe there will be worldwide demand for 100k doses a month - 1.2m a year? 0.015% of the worlds population? The reason why I am still invested here is because I think the answer is yes but everyone can do their own maths on that and of course there are some unknowns such as over time the virus becoming less deadly etc..

£2k per dose was talked about by our CEO last week (again your question re vaccine is pertinent as I think this has been priced to reflect that governments are not as desperate as they would have been, imagine no vaccine... We could have charged £10k a dose and sold out). If you have answered yes to the above 100k doses then you are also agreeing that the revenue of SNG will be £200m a month or £2.4bn a year. I don't think we have had an indication on cost of manufacture/supply etc but if we saw half of that as profit then we would be a debt free company with free cash generation of £1.2bn a year....

Of course the thing no one discusses here too often because we daren't is what if phase 3 is a failure and doesn't duplicate the success of phase 2? - This is another area where your vaccination point carries weight because without vaccinations I believe we would have skipped phase 3 and made a quick buck anyway but vaccinations existing is forcing us to dot the Is and cross the Ts. This for me is why I have only put in what I can live with losing. I think the share price should at least go to £15/£20 once we are selling 100k doses so I feel we are being offered 10-1 on an outcome with a 80--90% chance of happening (but don't ask me to back up those percentages!)

Good luck

Not taken advantage of the SP though have they? So is 8.5 and they have raised at 5.5.

Also. Saying that they are taking advantage of sp implies they believe the sp to be inflated - maybe it is... this is perhaps an indicator that those in the know believe this to be the case.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/PHE/placing-and-issue-of-equity/14826212

Criminal really that these “close friends” of the company get to buy at 5.5p with no say from other shareholders

It is a very small % of company. I think 4% of market cap or similar but still annoying.

I wonder if our cfo knew about this when he sold at 6.5p a couple of weeks ago....?

Ducati

I also note the following quote

"In December, Synairgen announced that it had started a phase 3 trial of SNG001 in the U.K. and that the FDA awarded fast-track status to the drug and cleared it for U.S. studies."

I know Synairgen have not written that but they have retweeted it - I think we were still unsure if the P3 trial has actually started as opposed to being "imminent" but this article states it started... Could lazy journalism and that the twitter guy at synairgen doesn't feel the need to correct this or it could be that as stated it has started and we are all waiting for an RNS which is not coming as it has not been deemed necessary...?

P.s. this is what happens when starved of actual nesw/RNS

Something that I am confused and dismayed about is the 2500 bopd target. Even at £40 a barrel that is only revenue of circa £36m. So the absolute best case scenario is that we end up with and asset which generates 1/3rd of curren market cap a year - don’t know what profit margins would be but hardly game changing as in something that would value us many more multiple times.

Happy to be talked down as I’m not hugely researched given BPC is a smaller holding of mine.

ATB

Is today the last day of Q4? Will be dosing someone by 23:59 tonight?

Hope so as to me it really matters that we hit the deadlines and targets stated by RM (or at least be provided with a positive or understandable reason why not).

I have remained heavily invested here based on RM’s words (naive? Maybe). If he can be wrong about starting a trial he can be wrong about 100,000 treatments a month etc.

Really hope we get some sort of update by 4th Jan 7am.

Just checked the EQT price on HL and was showing as down!!? In case anyone else has see this I have already contacted HL trading desk and let them know the glitch.

Cheers.

The fact that everyone on this board expected the news means it was 95% priced in so no big surprise by the sp not rocketing.

135p is a huge undervaluation but totally understandable given how many traders would have bought below a £1 and have no emotional attachment to seeing it through. They will be showing 45% gains in 2 weeks and cashing in this morning. I’ve done the same with other shares but have followed this one too closely to let go now.

Ghia, so not 100,000 a month from January then but rather from July is the more negative way of reading that.

The second quote sounds like we are only
Just getting heads round USA regs etc as opposed to having been guided by them to get this far.

Given a year go a trading update saying we would not meet expectations brought us down from 14p to 4-5p I am disappointed that the reverse update has not sent us towards 10p at least. I actually think the price yesterday sat somewhere between the risk of another poor update or the upside of meeting expectations - I therefore think we could have expected a rise today even if we were just meeting expectations - not exceeding.

Yep, 800m. 800k would be quite the profit warning!! I agree with your numbers. The market needs to wake up to this... debt free and no deal proof. Not much to not like. Thinking of switching some Lgen over to IGG.

Wow. Great update. Love that it is driven through a material increase in clients as opposed to greater volatility. The former should be a lot more maintainable. Keep this up and we are over £800k for the full year! If this doesn’t leap today I will buy more.

So we are expecting this tomorrow? Any views. Surely it should be bullish. I can’t believe the volatility will have gone and we had a lot of new clients who are hopefully still using the platform. Be good to see this push to 900.

I agree.

Starts off with “pleased to announce “ and then every paragraph is a nothing statement about hoping to know by H1 etc.

I kept reading thinking that one of these paragraphs was going to report a success but no...

We had one last year on the 5th. Are we expecting one in next few days this year? I can only imagine it has been pretty good so would be great to get an update.