Member Info for Skeletor

Nige - If you accept we are in a recession then you must surely accept that a recession is bad for house builders? The shortage has not gone away but the sales will.

Home owners will choose not to move either because they don't want to blow £30k on stamp duty, legals and estate agents. They will also hold tight as they become nervous about job security... Best to wait to see where you can get work before moving.

Renters will continue to rent rather than buy. That £30k deposit they have saved up will now be seen as a security blanket against unemployment rather than a down payment on a home.

Those who live with parents will continue to do so much the same as renters above.

I appreciate there is a housing shortage but these additional houses aren't being sold to people who don't have a roof over their head they are being sold to people who live in their parents house or flat share so there is some elasticity in demand.

For those who are still confident enough to buy then House builders will start to face competition from repossessions (not as big an issue as 2008 due to government intervention but if more than a blip this will happen).... and more sombrely if 250000 over 60s are taken by this disease before their time this too will release properties onto the market.

Nige - I understand you may have an answer to many of these points but to stand here shouting into the wind that a recession won't harm house builders profits is to lose some of the credibility you have accumulated on this chat board.

That all said - I remain invested.

ATB

A week ago so much of my portfolio looked undrvalued and ripe for a top up.

Aviva
Lgen
TW
Mcro
IMB

to name a few.... the share price was getting hammered but logically the profits didn't seem to be (not like airlines, Leisure etc). This week what was dawning on more savvy traders/investors a month ago has begun to dawn on me... We are in a recession and the effects of this will filter to every industry regardless of how unrelated the business is to movement of people. Gradually 1 by 1 I get an RNS into my inbox each morning cancelling dividend after dividend. What was a screaming buy on a 15% yield and P/E of 4 becomes an unknown on a yield of 0% and P/E yet to be determined as companies are unable to commit to any sort of guidance.

I have no to little doubt that all these companies (the ones I list above and many others) will one day in the not too distant future (next 2-3 years) will trade well above todays prices and this will seem a bargain price but I am no longer itching for my ISA allowance to come round again like I was last week... I think there will be more down days than up day over the next month and beyond and I would have to be really confident to top up on anything which has not yet announced it's dividend being cut (IMB possibly the exception).

Having got caught out at the top I am determined to wait longer in anticipation of topping up at the bottom and not half way down. This is my first market crash (investing since around 2012) I doubt it will be my last but I will learn from this and although easier said than done I would like to think that next time I will spot it sooner and get into cash like more experienced people have done this time in order to reinvest at a later stage.

Just my thoughts and despite the last month wiping out nearly half my savings I still love investing and can't wait to start adding more as the time feels right.

ATB

I think the special goes ex div in June...

3.8p 2nd Apr
10.9p 4th Jun

Can't believe I hovered over the sell button at 230 a few weeks ago.... I decided to hang on for 250

That said, I would have only reinvested into something as equally catastrophic

Can anyone explain why MCRO will be affected by CV more than an average FTSE company? They aren't reliant on physical movement of people, they are travel orientated.... Before I commit to what looks like a fantastic price for long term have I missed something major? The current drop is as if it may go bust!?

Sounds great but somewhere in all that text he mentions an unaudited $244m tax loss from 2019??? Potentially misread as rushing to work but was this known? Or have I completely misunderstood (suspect the latter). ATB.

IGG underperforming the FTSE today. Not sure why... I thought this company loves volatility?? Tempted to come back in but so many bargains... LGEN and Aviva both seem pretty safe places right now but who knows....

I still don’t understand there has been no Holdings RNS. I have looked at the rules and it is at every %pt that it needs reporting. UK holders have 4 days and non UK have 6 days. This means the deadline for last Wednesdays drop has already been and gone and we still haven’t heard anything about this weeks drop. I can’t believe that such a huge drop can be caused by only owners of <3% selling. What am I not getting... can someone propose an alternative?

Shorts are still at 0.6%.... seems awfully low given the amount of people on here expecting even bankruptcy or 10p... surely if this was a widely expected outcome by those in the know then institutions would be shorting the share?? I agree that the way this has been falling is reminiscent of some other stocks on their way to liquidation but those other stocks have normally supported the drops with regular poor RNS’s and shorts have normally been in the 8-10% range.... any views?

If I wasn’t already so deep into this I would consider adding on the back of that trading update. Will tie my hands behind my back for the rest of the morning though....

alwayswrong. I notice your posting history is Saga, NMC and Ted Baker. Either you are having terrible luck with your investments or you only post on chat boards where you are not invested? Or I suppose you have cleverly shorted all 3 of these in which case well done but you won’t mind me taking your bearish view with a pinch of salt?

How long does a company have to publish a holdings RNS from the point a threshold is crossed?

What are the thresholds which require an RNS?

There must be a huge II selling here and it seems either under stress such as Woodford was or with a certainty that selling at 25p is a good scenario.

Can't understand how the price has dropped over 40% in last 7 days without any recorded increase in shorts (currently at 0.6% so hardly distressed) or without an RNS declaring a reduction in holdings (although as made clear above I don't have a full understanding of when an institution does or doesn't have to declare).

Even if CV is causing a material reduction in people going to the co-op, getting a coffee at Costa or heading to their local for a pint this does not effect NRR profits. Only if any of the leaseholders fall into administration or attempt a CVA would it begin to bite. I guess this depends on how sustained the corona Virus is... If it dies down in next 2-3 months I wouldn't expect to hear it mentioned in any NRR reports. If it wipes out 10% of the population then it will obviously have an effect but my S+S ISA performance will be the least of my worries by then!!!

I am not a holder but NRR sits top of my watchlist and I may well enter tomorrow.

CFO bought over 100,000 shares at 36p 6 days ago - makes me feel okay about my 28.8p buy today

Nuri

Without any solid facts and figures to back me up I would hazard a guess that Aviva are as proportion more exposed to life insurance (irrational fear of mass payout on premiums if CV hits hard) and general insurance (recent weather probably causing an increase in payouts). Legal and General have a higher proportion of profit coming from fund management (arguably unaffected by CV as I don't think their fees are particularly performance weighted) and perhaps more crucially pension annuities (actually would be profitable in the unlikely event that CV caused a number of untimely deaths in the over 65s).

I am fairly heavily in both companies but it was LGEN that I topped up this morning and not Aviva. Both report tomorrow so we will find out if I was right.

GL

Starting to feel a little foolish here as I keep adding at what I think are bargain prices (been doing this since 44p). Promised myself I wouldn't fall into this sort of trap but it was only a month ago that we got told we were on track to meet market expectations.

The cruise business does not make or break sagas balance sheet, a disproportionate amount of commentary is given to it (partly due to it being a key area of growth)- If I was to be worried about anything it would be the recent floods and not a slowdown in cruise bookings. I think Aviva report tomorrow so will maybe give an insight into how much paying out on recent flood damage is effecting profits.

Perhaps a little impetuous but hit my 720 target having bought in at 668 a month ago (banked divi too). I still think a good share at a fair price but too many irrational "bargains" to be had so needed cash from somewhere. Will sit on my watchlist again.... this is one of the few shares I have (by luck) called the lows and highs right each time on so hopefully that continues although I could see this pushing on into the 730s/740s.

Those who are talking about 800 I think are a little optimistic without a significant EPS upgrade.

I am baffled by some of the drops in the market... It seems to me that there are some companies who would be severely impacted by a pandemic (and perhaps they should drop further), some companies which would not be affected (and they should not be dropping and perhaps increasing as money gets moved across into their relative safety) and finally some companies that perhaps benefit.... IG would be one of those who if anything will be making hay from this volatility.

Managed to sell 60% of my holding at 1865 this morning... will buy it back as soon as we get close to 1700.... which from experience we will.

I've topped up again - Didn't think I would have ended the day with such a large holding of Micro - I nearly completely sold about a week ago when they touched 1130

At 875. Wanted to average down as had a fair bit at 1020 from last year. Oh well I suspect we will see well above 1000 again but was a bit too quick on the trigger this morning.

Those buying in fresh at these prices surely can’t fail to make money...?

Have sold some LGEN to top up here