Member Info for Skeletor

Cruise business is 100% of Carnival profits and a fraction of Saga's who are still predominantly an insurance business... 5% drop is ridiculous.... scrabbling around to see what I can sell to buy more here.

back in at 668 this arvo. Reluctantly sold Unilever to fund it. Struggle to see how a potential worldwide pandemic is more harmful to an SP of a CFD trading firm than it is to a worldwide supplier of household consumables but the market disagrees so have taken the opportunity.

Don't disagree that 800p is possible but not based on fundamentals and more likely sentiment - As i tend to invest in fundamentals I expect I will out again long before 800p unless we get significantly stronger trading results against LY LFL ESMA.

Cheers

Me too..... just spent an hour re-reading all their news sine last January.... Struggle to see how TU could be so bad that business should be valued at 40p level. Update would need to have some Ted Baker esque scandal or be half of the expected profit to justify this price - though no doubt this would drop further should either the above happen.

Saga is now my 3rd largest holding which was never the plan so I will sell today's top up if we can get back to mid 50s and carry on with what I had before today for a long term hold.

GLA

Struggling to understand a near 4% drop here when general market is down due to fears over Coronavirus.... or all the companies a pandemic could effect I think Ptec would not be high on the list... Makes no sense.

If the per was 25 I assume the dividend would be a thinly covered 3.5%. I wouldn’t see this as attractive investment. It would have lost the reasons for investing in the first place.

I recently went into Unilever at a per of 21. This was a huge U turn in my normal strategy but I figured it was good to add a defensive share to my investments and I can only see one direction of travel for profits with there international exposure and almost direct correlation to world population growth. I couldn’t make the same case if a house builder was at a 20 plus per.

The supply/demand argument is strong but if interest rates were higher and banks wouldn’t lend as much then demand would be unfulfilled unless prices came down which they may well do (not soon but sooner than the 100 years you mention)

Don’t get me wrong. I still think TW is undervalued but just by considerably less than you do.

Hi Nige

I am a fairly regular reader of this board and agree that TW has been inexplicably undervalued. I would argue that a PE of 12-13 is probably right and much higher it would become a sell for me.

PEs of 25 aren’t for cyclical companies who rely on major external market forces. The risk that an economic downturn, change in interest rates, stricter regulations, or change in demand (decreased foreign purchasers or end of help to buy) will always need to be priced in.

Put it this way... would you by a housebuilder such as TW on a 20 X earnings ratio? I wouldn’t. If you wouldn’t then assume many others wouldn’t... which is why it won’t get there.

Meanwhile I’m enjoying the rise and would love to hit my exit price of 250-270.

Good luck.

My avg had been 545 having bought at 575 about a year ago and then topping up at 505 when they dipped last May... collected a full divi also... with no more news I would consider these as a re-entry at 670 - Still a great share but there are other things I want to invest in more...

Redd
MARS on todays drop
top up AVivav
top up IMB even

GLA

I had a look when it was 7.01 and hovered over the sell but set a new target of 720... too greedy? Maybe but I get a 6% divi whilst I wait.

I think they are disappointing. I recall first quarter results being flat.. need to check. If I’m right then 2nd quarter are also flat and fully lfl. Plus more money has been spent to achieve this so profits are down. Dividend wasn’t covered last year so looking like a second year of not covering the dividend.

Also (and I’m not an expert on this) I understand that markets have been favourable recently with bit coin rising and the general election.

I am holding but kicking myself a little for not getting out at 700 a few weeks ago.

Good luck all.

Got in today at 428

So what decides tomorrow’s opening price? Something in today’s RNS references a nominal 50p but that seems to undervalue new GFRD by my (albeit poor calcs). Is 50p the opening price.... who gets to decide? I realise the market ultimately will decide the price but not necessarily the opening price...?

I just managed to buy £1000 at 5.75 for my sipp... interested if it will show as a sell as this was the quoted sell price. I did once buy £1000 for my ISA and this is now sitting at £400 so will reserve my smugness until we actually see some movement upwards.

I see no logical reason for such a rise.... how is TW worth 15% more today than yesterday? Are we going to sell more houses now. Surely the only thing we have avoided is a no deal but what scenario in the GE would have put no deal back on the table... none I can think of.

Hovering over the sell button (easy for me to do as avg is high 140s) but could see this (illogically) pushing higher.....

Although gutted I missed out on selling Lgen at 320 on open... it’s fallen back now.

It seems that the widely regarded view on here is that the dividend looks too good to be true (It actually isn't - its the desperately low share price which creates this illusion not an unrealistically high payout).

The second point of discontent is "what good is a high yield if half my capital has vanished". My avg is around 2000p so not as bad as some and 18 months dividend (I have already had 6 months of these) would recover the difference....

.... However it seem that 2 birds could be killed with one stone. Why don't we maintain shareholder returns but take half of the dividend and use it to buy back shares. This would simultaneously stop red flags appearing over dividend yield and surely would start to apply an upward pressure on share price. 2 years of this strategy would remove 12% of shares from the market and I suspect all else being equal push the SP closer to mid 2000s.... Dividend could then return to full strength but now with a 7-8% yield and the balance of cash being saved (12% less shares to pay dividend to) could be used to reduce debt....

... Seems so obvious - Any counter thoughts to this?

HSBC have stated in their q3 results that they intend to maintain divi. Issue you will have is that the exchange rate is likely to improve after the election and that will
naturally erode the dividend. If roe got back to 1.5 yield would be 6% and today’s share price would probably look about right...

On the verge of buying in here - it's between this, HSBC or a small punt on Metro.

Anyone nervous about the large Director sells - especially the one on the 9th Dec? Was there a plausible reason for this or in hindsight will this have been a big warning to avoid?

I feel slightly underwhelmed by those results... given the first quarter was a surprisingly good update (this was the non LFL period va ESMA) I thought the second quarter was going to be up vs Ly not down. I have been tempted to sell a few times but kept putting off as I suspected a further move following today but now think it could go down a bit... hope not.

At what point are the company obliged to issue a note on the reasons for rise or to say there is no known reason for rise? I thought there was some rule which requires this?

Well with just £20k traded we got a 45% increase... Can't understand how such a small percentage of the share changing hands causes such a large increase?

Can anyone help me understand why some in media and on here state that dividend is not covered. Even an article in the Fool said this yesterday but as I understand it EPS is circa 270p so divi is covered?

What am I missing?