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Most likely yes Magicalali. I don’t expect much from a prototype optimised or clinical validation started RNS. Someone on here brought up the discussion on what will be the real sp inflection news item. Most concluded it would be the fda approval. Therefore I expect the sp to spike drift around 115-145p until the LFT is approved for sale at which point we will have a better idea of performance, partners, costs, demand, etc and can make some better assumptions around the potential sales and profits. Its just a waiting game for us now until the end of August for the LFT. I am more interested in news on the BAMS and treatment front for now

BBN, my view is that we will be on plan to the one shown in the presentation, i.e. end of June, as whilst the test is optimised there is nothing to stop the manufacturing partners being put in place and starting the process of manufacturing the validation batches concurrently. They can complete initial planning and tech transfer activities whilst the test is being optimised. Great if it’s finished this week but if it takes a couple of weeks I think they are likely minor tweaks that can be incorporated into the final batch towards the end of the timescale. The actual production will only be for a couple of hundred tests so total time to complete should not be any longer than the timeline suggested. I expect we might see a manufacturing update or partner RNS this week.

It’s demands on your investment horizon though ipadtrader. For the previous two weeks the sp was rising. I think most expected the sp to level out around the placing price until significant news is released (tests approved or treatment partnership). I believe the sp tends to overshoot each way and then settle down. We had the low and then a good run up to £1.50. Now I’d like to see it settle out here as we wait for the LFT to be approved for sale by the end of August. That’s a couple of months time so traders will take their money and go and lose it somewhere else then likely get back in here in August. It’s a good strategy if you don’t believe in Avacta as an investment however I believe you are likely to miss something special being announced in the mean time. I’m just sitting on my hands and waiting as the message I am reading from AS is very clear

The last presentation says ‘manufacturing will be carried out in the UK initially’. I can’t remember seeing anything about British companies doing the manufacturing. Cytiva have a UK presence in Amersham which was the old GE life sciences.

Having just reread the LFT update RNS I think that was the prototype complete/lab performance news we were signposted to expect for end of June. The fact that the team want to optimise further is a real positive as a) there’s a strong baseline worth building on and b) we then really do have the best test possible (not rushing at the expense of performance). Now what made me question this was the timeline in the presentation points to validation batch manufacture straight after the end of June. So how do we stay on plan if the test is being optimised? I think we will therefore see a manufacturing partner(s) RNS next week as the commercial deal can be done and initial planning/tech transfer started whilst the final optimisations are made in parallel. My understanding is the clinical validation needs to use the final rate manufacturer(s) samples. Next week could be very exciting

I share your view in your second paragraph PL75. I just don’t like not knowing a bit more about what’s going on but that is Al’s job to manage so I’ll leave him to it.

I agree with you on sp and sentiment. I would call the initial positive sentiment ‘Covid share hype’ which drove the sp to £2+ (I see this as a great thing for Avacta as it allowed the fundraise at a much higher sp). We also have the underlying market sentiment. Whilst the market has cooled off I do think we might see another 10% correction as the recession kicks in. I strongly believe the market has got too far ahead of the fundamentals for where we are today. That and it looks like we will see Covid-19 continue to increase globally/second waves. Whether this brings back some of the Covid stock hype I don’t know so the sp will need to be more closely aligned to results rather than just sentiment.

I mentioned the articles were referring to the BAMS test at the time of the press release. It was the only test from Avacta in trial phase at the time. Everyone wanted to believe it was the LFT they were referring to. Good research though and it would certainly address the point about access to clinical samples being an issue. I don’t know what Avacta don’t just come out and say something like they BAMS test clinical trials are underway with the UoS/PHE and will take x weeks to complete’

After this weeks LFT presentation and RNS with comments from Klaus I’m feeling very confident about the LFT performance and demand. The focus is clearly now on clinical validation and manufacturing ramp up once the test has been optimised. Interestingly these were the critical factors David Wilson highlighted in the webinar. Whilst I am comfortable with the overall timeline and looking for the test to market at the end of August I am now a little confused in the near term. The presentation was very clear in that the LFT was ready end of June and then moving into validation batch manufacturing. The RNS the next day suggested a period of optimisation which as other have suggested could take around three weeks. Is this in keeping with the timeline from the presentation? Will validation batches be manufactured for each design to determine the optimum?

Was the RNS from this week the LFT prototype one we were expecting before the end of June?

I am even less clear where we are with the BAMS test validation. It makes me wonder if access to clinical trials is an issue here preventing progress at pace. I don’t think this will be an issue with the LFT as I expect the gov to facilitate the clinical validation.

I think the sp is a result of the placing and retail share offering. It makes sense that people have bought and sold the placement shares. I am sure the LTHs who got more are holding on to them. I expect the price to stabilise around this level whilst we churn through these new shares for a couple of weeks and then we start a steady rerate over the next two months as progress is made on the Covid fronts.

So what did AS tell us in the video today:
LFT prototype will be ready end of June
Sensitivity will be > 90%
Specificity will be > 95%
Timeline to achieve approvals mid August and hence sales start

To share these insights 7 days away from the end of June tells us something. AS must be very confident in delivering the above. This is game changing and I don’t think has been fully digested by the market. Perhaps the investors want to see the RNS but what a time to buy in/more now. I expect a steady rerate from here on in with some big jumps on the approvals. In that time we will also get the BAMS test and most likely a partner for the treatment. I’m more confident now than I was but it seems AS has been telling us how it is all along and his confidence well founded

I think astronomical was the word AS used

I wasn’t getting that excited by the prospect of a ‘prototype ready’ RNS as without the performance data it doesn’t mean much but an RNS confirming the prototype is ready and testing has started with the government/SU would carry much more weight.

That said I still don’t know this news couldn’t be related to only the BAMS test which we know is in validation phase?

No we don’t. What we need is validated tests

I still think it relates to the BAMS test. MAP Sciences referenced as well also do mass spectrometry.

Two potential partners right there in MAP Sciences and Oxford Nanoimaging.

Could the saliva samples not be for the the BAMS test validation? It mentions saliva but not testing method for Avacta

A better subject header but credit to PL75 for sharing earlier. It’s quite astonishing really when you listen back to it like that. So much to look forward to from Avacta this year

PL75 makes a good point. £4-5 from here based on what we know today and you would take your money out and run however to get there it’s going to take positive news on the LFT front at least if not also the treatment side too. If we are then sitting at £5 with a game changing test validated and an expedited Affimer treatment partnership you would look at the investment differently. New investors would be coming in for further testing opportunities, sales revenue and then the cancer therapeutic trial next year. Therefore it’s better to keep updating your exit price as more news comes to light and risk is reduced. Let the winners run!

Screech. You are missing the testing of the prototype in clinical trials that is required for the approval. Given we haven’t had BAMS yet you can see that this takes a few weeks so I think test on sale early August

Sounds like a lot of holders hear trying to talk the Avacta saliva based antigen LFT down this morning. No one has got one of these tests approved to date. I am sure loads are trying/ thinking about developing something. Avacta are out in front with their test that is set to be game changing. If anyone is ahead of us it’s Sona as they have their prototype complete but it sounds like they may be struggling with the performance. Avacta are close behind but we know affimers give us the competitive advantage to win the race. Stop trying to make links that don’t exist. Avacta’s test is in development and isn’t being trialled anywhere yet. Once ready you can bet the media hype to be huge if that’s what you want to see. I’m more interested in the test performance and sales myself.

Surely just good solid progress is what we need. We know the steps so just need to know we are moving ahead. We are not going to go from where we are now to selling approved tests or clinical trials

It could pay off but I think we may get some news before Thursday next week given all the irons in the fire right now. If we do then you’ll be paying a premium