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Ophidian, your timeline seems very sensible to me. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I think you’ve built in some risk between points 9-13 so they could be ready to sell wk1/wk2 August especially if they get a good turnaround for approval (if the data is good and they do a good job in the trial/submission). Interestingly if you read Myles’ original timeline from his investment thesis then we pretty much reach the same point so although some have perceived a delay I think it’s all within the original expectations from Avacta.

I very much doubt an RNS regarding the LFT before the Wednesday webinar. The expectation of one might help push the sp up though. The prototype ready news will be max 2 weeks behind it though so not long to wait. It would be crazy if AS couldn’t even plan a key milestone like that 2.5 weeks out. Even then I’m not that interested in it as it’s all about the clinical trials and performance data. We could see the BAMS data ahead of this as how long does it take to pool some samples and run through a test? 2 days to plan, 2 days to do and then 2 days to write up the results and review?

The webinar is about ‘ design considerations for COVID-19 rapid POC diagnostic test development, hence they won’t be talking about specifically what any one company has done on their prototype to achieve a certain result. It’ll be a bit like the Avacta blog update that talked about the key input factors and what can be done to optimise. They will likely all contribute from a fairly neutral standpoint albeit sharing some of the benefits of the interactions with their IP that we already know about. It should be quite interesting with respect to how the LFTs are designed and optimised. If your expecting an RNS beforehand you’ll be disappointed and traders may chose to bail out causing the sp to drop again. The prototype ready news is due by the end of June. Given how close we are to that, from when mentioned, I am confident it will be achieved but likely right towards the end of the month. I don’t think this will do much more than prop the sp up at the level it is then as the real news is the clinical trial specificity and sensitivity. This is the only news that will drive the sp up in the near term in my opinion.

We should hold above 120p on average until news on the LFT performance as if you bought shares in the placing why would you sell for no profit. Traders will look to take a position ahead of the news providing some buying pressure of the coming weeks. I am taking confidence from Ruane buying £10m worth at 120p. They have strong due diligence and will have spoken to AS personally. Why would they buy at 120p (a price driven up by the Covid testing opportunity) if it was a few weeks away from failing and they could have bought an equal stake on the open market for much less?

RK, I know you are a long term holder here with your core holding but are these recent buys a long term hold or more of a short/medium term trade to capitalise on the current sp?

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome - COV-2 causes a lot of damage to the lungs. Some people are struggling to fully recover. I don't think it’s a case of reoccurring symptoms but more due to the damage the virus had in the first place. Dead lung cells trapped in the lungs and coughed up is known to give follow on false positive test results

Ruane are the investments advisors for the Conifer fund. We had the TR1. It’s not that clear but AS clarified for us yesterday.

We know AS can’t reveal any new news in the presentations today but I am very interested in the language he uses to describe the opportunity. Sure this will follow that of the wording in the most recent RNSs and presentations but the language is key. We are a few weeks down the line now so if he’s still talking about the best performing test then that bodes well for good news going forward. I’ll be listening very closely today and will be interested to hear others interpretation of what is said as there are some very insightful views shared on here

It says 3.54% of 235m shares which includes the placing amount so assume bought in placing.

More than 5% for outside of UK?

I just don’t see how he can talk about the tests and not give more away regarding their status. Using wording from the recent RNSs will help. I think they are both in prototype trial stage so have been developed but that doesn’t mean they still don’t need more work to finalise the finished products. The key will be if he mentions being on plan for mid summer/summer.

Gabriel, if you listen to AS the LFT is being targeted at the mass population screening market. Even he said a positive test would lead to treatment and further testing. The market size for this mass screening LFT with sensitivity >80% is huge in itself. That’s what Avacta are going after. It doesn’t replace PCR testing. I really don’t think AS would be saying what he has said, signing distribution agreements and raising funds to scale up production if there is no working test.

I feel the dip today is people chasing the market. In hindsight I would have sold Avacta at 210p, bought some FTSE 100 shares that have gained 30% since and bought my original holding in Avacta back for less. However I believe news is imminent so I never would have done that. Also I do think this recovery in the market is due a correction soon as a lot of the fundamentals have not changed to the extent where we are nearly back to start of 2019 levels.

To make it easier for myself I just set a target date to review my investment based on ASs original timeline for the Covid tests. That date is mid July and it avoids me watching the daily sp movements. Obviously I re-evaluate this every time actual news is released.

I’m also wondering if the statement ‘encouragement from retail and institutional shareholders‘ statement from the RNS links to it at all. Would Cytiva class as a shareholder in the sense of their deal? More of a stakeholder in my mind. Perhaps they have been pushing Avacta to get the ramp up in Affimer production going given the performance of test developed to date.

Spot on PL75. I’ll be pretty disappointed if it’s Gates. Perhaps were are missing the obvious here. SIGNIFICANT STRATEGIC US investor. We’re working with Danaher (Cytiva) to develop the LFT. They just raised $3bn in May. Kind of makes the £45m seem like pocket change for them. I don’t see how the cancer therapeutics fits with their business though. In my head I had thought the strategic US investor was backing the £35m cancer therapeutics work but maybe I’ve got it the wrong way around. Anyway we will find out soon enough (potentially by the 10th) as long as they bought more than £9m worth in the placing.

Interestingly the article about Array refers to Roche, the second largest pharma in the world, as marketing a product they had developed. Roche would be a good fit as they have huge markets in both cancer treatments and diagnostics.

A few seem worried about a potential takeover. Now more so since the fundraising and a strategic US investor is on board. No idea if a takeover is in any big pharmas sights or if the two are linked. Some have suggested the fundraise may be a precursor to a takeover.

I feel a takeover is the best way to realise shareholder value here even in the long term as any bids will price in the future therapeutics potential. Hence am I concerned? No. Why? Because it’s a very competitive market out there.

Take Ablynx for example (AS suggested we use them for a comparison). Their sp rose 60% on the Novo Nordisk bid taking their MCAP from €1.6bn to €2.6bn. That’s when Sanofi stepped in and offered €3.9bn another 27% premium to the sp.

I have no idea if a takeover is likely but as soon as someone shows any interest I would expect a bidding war to escalate very quickly. Taking the above example it’s easy to see how the value of a company can increase by many multiples very quickly.

Take your cash out, sit on the sidelines once you’ve made a few quid if thats your strategy but once someone shows an interest you’ll have missed the boat.

Stanman, 2 great questions but probably lost in the noise on this board. I do think the capture of the saliva sample is key. There will have to be some very clear instructions to do it in a controlled way that provides the best possible sensitivity.

I think 13thmonkey is right regarding the results capture. I think the gov will look to incorporate approved consumer tests quickly into their strategy and using technology such as QR codes and an app is the way. I feel the gov can catch up with Avacta on this front though rather than worry about it now.

Timster, you are confident the LFT is going to be a huge success yet you don’t want to believe it has already been developed. Not sure I follow your thinking to be honest. Who would invest millions in a fundraising if the test didn’t exist and was proven (early results) let along a strategic US institution. You would have thought the company would have had to show them more than just a fancy animation on a slide.

AS has played this very well with the fundraising. Sure it was unfortunate to have leaked and the sp movements were unsettling. The bottom line is it takes a lot of cash to rapidly expand a business. They now have an extra £10m to do this very seriously, scaling up Affimer production to meet the huge demand and also the team to lead it.

ajoke’s posts also make no sense as saying the test will generate the cash needed to scale up the business is chicken and egg. To do this quickly and do it well raising the extra cash was the right thing to do. Imagine selling tests and then realising you can’t scale up quick enough to meet demand on several fronts as you wait for the cash to trickle in at the start. That would be a disaster. Could they have secured a £10m loan/credit line to do this? I don’t know. If the LFT test is going to be as big as we think it is then getting on the front foot now is a sure fire way to capture the majority market share and maximise shareholder return in the long term.

As Chendo has already said, it would have been much worse if the they had released multiple RNSs on the every test development bit by bit, ramping up the sp to them complete the fundraise and watch it crash back down. Could they have raised at a higher price with the investors encouraging them to? Not sure. This way round the test is developed, the cash needed to scale up Affimer production secured, cancer therapeutic programs funded to run in parallel and not be delayed by the Covid-19 test work and then bang we have a high performance test submitted for approval ready to sell to a mass market for a very very high margin.

Sit back and enjoy the ride!

No. We have been told from the start that the next news would be test performance. It was clearly stated in the webinar. The tests have most likely now been developed and are being trialled in the lab to generate that performance data

Notification of holding needs to be declared straight away if over 3%.

For the new 40m shares just sold that’s 7.46m or 18.7% - just under £9m worth. Do with think a strategic US investor bought at least that many to trigger the notification? I do.

I am assuming this needs to be declared from the date the shares are admitted to the market. Is this correct? If so we won’t hear until next Wednesday 10th earliest and possibly 25th June if split over the two placing admissions.

I think the strategic US investor is likely to have backed the initial 35m for the cancer therapies so should hear of a c.15% holding on or around the 10th June.

We’ve had some useful news This week and a new interview with AS. Some interesting theories from some good posters too. What have we learnt and what to look forward to as a result:
£48m cash in the bank
Building a strong new team to scale up the diagnostic division
Scaling up Affimer manufacturing capacity
Diagnostics and therapeutic goals planned to now be worked concurrently
Strategic US investor on board - Potential TR1 to confirm holding
News on test development/performance due early June as reiterated in most recent Finncap interview
Tests reiterated in interview released post placing
FTSE listing?
NASDAQ listing?
Proactive investor presentation on Thursday next week

I have a feeling next week is going to be even more interesting!