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Turvart, two good posts and reasonably well written. Are there two people who use your account or are you schizophrenic or at least very drunk when you write the other stuff. I much prefer this version as you have some good contributions to make

BBN tweeting today some good research into why Avacta test sensitivity ‘could’ be much better than the competition and that of previous corona virus LFTs.

Comek, if that is correct then it looks like this will be a blockbuster. I’ll go back and have a read/listen to confirm the % numbers.

Also given AS’s more recent comments it appears those original expectations of his could be even better now!

Thanks for sharing the article Candlestick. Given AS presentation it seems Avacta should be able to achieve a better result than 80% (assuming the specificity is also 100%) on a true at home test. That will be a unique selling point and should have strong demand in certain uses

I’ve been building on my research on what I believe is the key short term risk or you could say opportunity here. The sensitivity of the LFT will define the use of the test and market size.

It seems that detecting viruses such as corona is more challenging on LFT devices. That said we have the Affimer technology and if you read up on LFT design there is a lot that can be done to significantly improve the test sensitivity. This is where working with Cytiva is key to success as their expertise in this area will be invaluable.

So we saw Quidell receive FDA approval for its antigen test. What is the quoted sensitivity for this test?

It’s fairly clear AS has stated Avacta’s antigen test will be the best but what does that mean. If the competition is 90% sensitive then does that mean we will be 95%?

Some have suggested on here that anything less than 99% sensitivity will not be useful for diagnostic testing and more suitable for mass screening. I think it’s important we temper our expectations. This won’t be as sensitive as PCR testing. If we can develop the most sensitive antigen test the opportunity here should be significant. The question will be does this offer a genuine alternative to PCR testing or are we going after the lower reliability mass screening market.

Any thoughts welcome.

You’ve gone into hyperdrive on the posting (and reposting) tonight Ken. What’s up? You looking to sell down?

Only one RNS from this morning. You can see that here on LSE. The notification you got was for news of the RNS from this morning

How did Quidel use Affimers for their test? I thought Affimers were a registered trademark to Avacta? Is this the same technology?

We will get progress news but I think it will be 1-2 months before we get the definitive answer that it works. In that time there will be plenty of progress made on various fronts so just sit back and enjoy your decision to invest here

Has Avacta proven a saliva based affimer LFT on any other viruses such as HIV or Zika? Surely the HIV test market opportunity would dwarf Covid-19 and be required forever?

The only real major risk here (and it’s a big one for huge short term success) is the saliva LFT strip approach doesn’t work reliably. I know what AS has said but for me it’s a very real risk until proven. Given the process involved for taking and then analysing the PCR test it’s clearly difficult to detect the virus. Now I am hoping the affimers are the breakthrough here and it works. I have taken a significant position here so I am backing it to work. I think when the news drops that it does work, has been tested successfully and is heading to market the sp will very quickly be moving towards £4-5. Clearly Avacta is not just about the Covid-19 saliva LFT. I think the BAMS approach is nailed on and then you have the longer term affimer partner programmes. But they are a different investment horizon

Yeah 100p would be a good entry for news on the test mid May

Prices to go bust. If they survive and oil recovers into 2021 then this is a fantastic opportunity to buy. I’m staying on the sidelines for now

See this often. People need money at certain times and as discussed previously, IIs will sell down for various reasons. LOAM may be exiting for all we know and they started selling last week. If you listened to the presentation then you know the potential here (and it’s in the billions). No point in chasing the rabbit and thinking about what if you had sold to buy in lower. The spread doesn’t help and you’ll get wrong footed most times. Just sit back and be confident in your decision to invest in Avacta. I am certain even the short term rewards will be significant too so no point watching the sp minute by minute and fretting over 5/10% here or there when we all know where we think this will end up by the end of this year

Nice one Trader. Good to listen back to the presentation again to pick out the important points. So much to look forward to here!

I thought the reinfection false positives were deemed to be caused by dead lung tissue? Not much anyone can do about that other than just keep regularly testing

Given the wording in the presentation released today ‘next few days’ I am expecting an update tomorrow pm or Monday morning. They will be working around the clock. We should get regular news here for the next 8 weeks as they bring the Covid-19 tests to market

Newbie, have you researched the market pricing for a test that is pitched to be this accurate? Novacyt’s test has been seen to be advertised from £300-£600. In fact I have only heard of private testing costing hundreds of pounds. And then you have to wait a couple of days for the result. Seems cheap to me but I do like the margin!

Luke, I am not convinced we will get news like the shipping of affimers to Cytiva. It should have happened. We will get an update soon but I am hoping they are much further along that that by now given the urgency needed on this!

Yes the blockbuster bit is very exciting hence the investment case in Avacta. Quite rightly it’s been tipped a few times too. The Covid-19 testing offers a unique opportunity to demonstrate the effectiveness of affimers to the world and generate some significant income whilst these blockbusters are brought online.