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So the US deal target date has moved back again. It was expected to be concluded in Q2 and now its summer 2020. June to August. Another 2 months potentially to conclude. I’d love to be a fly on the wall and know what is holding it back. Is this it now or could we be looking to year end again as we were last year?

Bladey, I’m kind of hoping some that took up the placing shares do flip them for a nice profit. This should allow a nice, steady consolidation of the sp rather than big spikes. We dont know what proportion of the shares went to ‘strategic’ IIs vs those who will just flip. Given the oversubscription I would say almost went to the former who should be in for the longer game than most on here.

This latest fall in the sp and subsequent placing has brought in new traders and investors. Any rises and consolidation will do the same. We need this to see long term growth in the sp. As you say it’s sensible to bank some profit so it will happen. However it’s those that continue to hold through all of the noise, even continuing to buy, that will reap huge rewards. Good luck on whatever your strategy is.

Flyingmachine, it’s clear AS sees a huge market for the POC and consumer LFT. We all do. A few sensible people have pointed out the need to balance the sensitivity expectations (PL75, BBN). AS just said it again in the Finncap interview released today (views increasing quickly to 769 now). This is a mass screening test. Those who test positive will get tested again and those negative will get on with their life work. The bar isn’t that high (80%) so anything above 90% and I think there will be huge interest.

Given the most recent timeline in the interview the performance of the LFT is due in the next few days. I expect these lab results to be very very good given the control around them.

Shout out to Ophidian who also said the BAMS test could be better than PCR. Now that would be something!

Good post jdt1990. Avacta is more than just Covid testing. Sure the future Affimer value has not been proven yet but the last thing we want is to damage that future potential. A few months ago this was never in the plan for the product development so the team will want to do it quickly but do it right.

We are still on plan so people need to stop assuming there is a delay. I just reread the Adeptrix RNS from 1st May and it said the test would be ready to start trials, approvals, manufacture in June. I fully expect news on this front first and in the next ‘few’ weeks too. As Ophidian nicely put it, this could be the new ‘gold standard’ test!

Look at the news out of India today on new infections. Covid-19 isn’t going anywhere this year unfortunately so we need progress on all fronts.

Ophidian has hit the nail of the head. The performance results (primarily sensitivity) from the LFT results that a lot of investors are nervous about and believe are a significant risk are based on a lab trials on known samples. The results will look very impressive and beat most expectations.

Again we are hearing that the ‘gold standard’ PCR tests can be on 70% accurate in the real world due to swabbing user issues.

Avacta will take off when this first performance data is released.

With work ongoing to plan I also wouldn’t be surprised if the next update was a more general business update covering development/trial status of each test, expressions of interest for orders and ongoing partnership discussions. I still think June will be the making of Avacta

A few that have been here for a while seem to have derisked this week/today. I can understand that given the recent sp rise. It seems like a few serious investors who really understand Avacta and the potential of Affimers bought more. I personally can’t see the point of selling before we have actually got the tests to market. Huge upside from here when that happens. I guess those that derisked don’t fully believe what AS is signposting to us. When the tests are approved it may be time to sell if you are not in for the AVA6000 ph1 trial at the end of this year/early 2021. I think June is going to be the making of Avacta

To be expected. I really like BBNs use of the term ‘alpha investment’ yesterday for Avacta.

Trading and long term holding strategies both work. Even some of the LTHs here will trade 10% of their holding. I just prefer to buy more on the dips. Buying more at 174p

It should do seeing that we are at the start of summer and mid summer is only 6 weeks away.

I find it interesting to hear why people have bought and sold on here as long as they share their reasoning. What I do find odd is people repeatedly posting the fact they have sold each day.

Lots of talk about ODX over the last 24 hours and people seeing value in GDR. Before it was the same thing with NCYT who from a testing route to market/sales point of view are a useful Covid-19 benchmark. NCYT did very well and we’re quick to respond to the crisis. Their market cap today is around £210m. If you look at GDR who now have a similar offering albeit later to the market their MCAP is only £55m. You can start to see the value GDR could unlock if sales go well and they can grab some market share.

The reality is with Avacta we are in a different league. Albeit further down the road when sold, comparisons have been made to Ablynx and their sale at $4.8bn. A potential increase in value here long term of up to 10x today’s MCAP. And that’s not through trying to muscle in on the competition. That’s through the potential of being first to market for a BAMS test, first to market high performing POC/consumer test and breakthrough cancer treatment.

Flyingmachine, the importance of the sensitivity of the LFT to meet the testing needs has been discussed here at length. This is obviously well known by AS who has stated ‘performance is key’ in light of the requirements and competition. He also stated the key technical hurdle has been overcome. Why say that if the test doesn’t meet the sensitivity and specificity requirements? Avacta have also recently posted a blog highlighting the factors around improving LFT sensitivity. Coincidence?

You highlight the key issue being the consumer? That is why Avacta will launch a POC test first which is carried out by trained healthcare professionals. All the benefits of the LFT without the loss in sensitivity from user error.

It’s also very interesting to read how these sensitivity numbers are derived. They are based on trials in a lab using samples. Roche and Abbott came under fire recently in a peer review for their new antibody test quoting figures derived from lab samples (many potentially from the same people). Avactas first trials on the prototype will be done in the same way. This of course gives better results as the human factor And other variables are taken out of it.

What we really need is robust clinical trials across the target population in the relevant settings the test will be used in. Then we can compare apples with apples. There is reports the so called ‘gold standard’ PCR test has up to 30% error rate (false negative) due to sample collection errors. Does that mean the PCR tests are only 70% sensitive and not 98%+?

Sure the LFT test sensitivity is the key to huge success for Avacta in the short term and I appreciate all views however your short post did come across biased towards the general negative aspects of antigen sensitivity.

Good advice to ignore the daily sp movements and base your decisions on the big picture (unless you are trading). I didn’t even expect to be at this level this week with no news. It really shows the strength in the buying here. The important thing is that Avacta are moving forward on multiple fronts to their committed timescales. I am sure they will update the market as soon as they can. The sp post tests to market and treatment partnership is what I am interested in. Check back in at the end of June and see where the sp is

I raised this previously on here. The Avacta blog updates mentioned mobile app connectivity. I think Sona are doing this. My view has changed on this and as right now Avacta need to keep it simple. Getting a reliable (high specificity & high sensitivity) antigen LFT to market as quickly as possible is the absolute priority for Avacta, it’s shareholders, the health care community, consumers and rest of the world . Anything else is really a distraction right now. Last thing we want is an extended development timescale. Connectivity can come along later in the year on the premium LFT if there is a demand/market for it. We can leave the testing strategy to the government/NHS/businesses. Everyone just needs an a scalable antigen LFT that works right now! It’s coming...

Sounds like positive news on the ODX antibody LFT. CEO on sky news. Whilst not a competitor it’s good to see who they are working with, how the test is being marketed and the pricing. When the Avacta antigen LFT news lands the options available to the NHS, business, and consumers are going to help get us back to the new normal with much greater confidence

Great (re) entry point there. You did well. I did exactly the same thing on NCYT. Pretty much the same numbers. When the sp went very quickly on to 500p I had forgotten all about it. You got back in ahead of the near term news flow here which is likely to push the sp up much higher

This company is the real deal so not sure what you are expecting. Next news should be something around successful development of the BAMS test as signposted by AS but I wouldn’t rule out more partnerships on either of the testing fronts or treatment.

Burge, do you not think news is coming?

Thanks for sharing seethreeIPO. Out of interest why would you not wait to exercise the options at the top of the market?

Trytosmile we will see people selling and regretting it all the way to the top now. Obviously hindsight is a wonderful thing. Don’t chase the rabbit

MrNation, you’d still be better off leaving your profit here though wouldn’t you? Good luck either way