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After this weeks LFT presentation and RNS with comments from Klaus I’m feeling very confident about the LFT performance and demand. The focus is clearly now on clinical validation and manufacturing ramp up once the test has been optimised. Interestingly these were the critical factors David Wilson highlighted in the webinar. Whilst I am comfortable with the overall timeline and looking for the test to market at the end of August I am now a little confused in the near term. The presentation was very clear in that the LFT was ready end of June and then moving into validation batch manufacturing. The RNS the next day suggested a period of optimisation which as other have suggested could take around three weeks. Is this in keeping with the timeline from the presentation? Will validation batches be manufactured for each design to determine the optimum?
Was the RNS from this week the LFT prototype one we were expecting before the end of June?
I am even less clear where we are with the BAMS test validation. It makes me wonder if access to clinical trials is an issue here preventing progress at pace. I don’t think this will be an issue with the LFT as I expect the gov to facilitate the clinical validation.
I think the sp is a result of the placing and retail share offering. It makes sense that people have bought and sold the placement shares. I am sure the LTHs who got more are holding on to them. I expect the price to stabilise around this level whilst we churn through these new shares for a couple of weeks and then we start a steady rerate over the next two months as progress is made on the Covid fronts.
So what did AS tell us in the video today:
LFT prototype will be ready end of June
Sensitivity will be > 90%
Specificity will be > 95%
Timeline to achieve approvals mid August and hence sales start
To share these insights 7 days away from the end of June tells us something. AS must be very confident in delivering the above. This is game changing and I don’t think has been fully digested by the market. Perhaps the investors want to see the RNS but what a time to buy in/more now. I expect a steady rerate from here on in with some big jumps on the approvals. In that time we will also get the BAMS test and most likely a partner for the treatment. I’m more confident now than I was but it seems AS has been telling us how it is all along and his confidence well founded
I wasn’t getting that excited by the prospect of a ‘prototype ready’ RNS as without the performance data it doesn’t mean much but an RNS confirming the prototype is ready and testing has started with the government/SU would carry much more weight.
That said I still don’t know this news couldn’t be related to only the BAMS test which we know is in validation phase?
PL75 makes a good point. £4-5 from here based on what we know today and you would take your money out and run however to get there it’s going to take positive news on the LFT front at least if not also the treatment side too. If we are then sitting at £5 with a game changing test validated and an expedited Affimer treatment partnership you would look at the investment differently. New investors would be coming in for further testing opportunities, sales revenue and then the cancer therapeutic trial next year. Therefore it’s better to keep updating your exit price as more news comes to light and risk is reduced. Let the winners run!
Screech. You are missing the testing of the prototype in clinical trials that is required for the approval. Given we haven’t had BAMS yet you can see that this takes a few weeks so I think test on sale early August
Sounds like a lot of holders hear trying to talk the Avacta saliva based antigen LFT down this morning. No one has got one of these tests approved to date. I am sure loads are trying/ thinking about developing something. Avacta are out in front with their test that is set to be game changing. If anyone is ahead of us it’s Sona as they have their prototype complete but it sounds like they may be struggling with the performance. Avacta are close behind but we know affimers give us the competitive advantage to win the race. Stop trying to make links that don’t exist. Avacta’s test is in development and isn’t being trialled anywhere yet. Once ready you can bet the media hype to be huge if that’s what you want to see. I’m more interested in the test performance and sales myself.
Back to the old pattern of drop in am them steady rise back up into the pm? Lots to look forward to:
AGM Monday so should get an update that all is on plan
BAMS test performance data should be being collected and progressing to completion within the next week
LFT prototype end of June
Affimer Covid treatment partner in ‘very near future’
Hard to tell what will come first but Avacta often do throw in a surprise
I know right now it all feels like jam tomorrow right now but this is some tasty fruit ripe for picking in the next couple of weeks
Perhaps we need another webinar where we get the experts from each company/institution together to tell us about the challenges of getting a treatment to market. Just don’t invite any Germans :-). In all seriousness though it was clear this was progressing in the background given the lack of an update (although signposted) in the recent presentations. I am still buzzing more from what we learnt in last nights webinar on the LFT. My expectation for the LFT performance have gone up significantly and those that understand the challenges most clearly said they can do it/it will be done. So much exciting news on the horizon on all fronts
Better to just look at the closing price each day than watch it jump up and down in the first hour of trading. I wouldn’t be surprised if we close at a high by the end of the day as savvy investors digest the news and buy on the dips throughout the day
Very good point Ophidian. I hadn’t thought of that but you are spot on with your observation. Very promising. What we do know is the BAMS prototype is complete. ’ Highly specific prototype test detects the virus spike protein at clinically relevant concentrations’. And AS comments ‘This bodes well for all our COVID-19 antigen test development programmes’.
Looks like the Affimers are performing very very well in both tests then!
I actually found tonight’s board here really comical with also some great insights shared. I found myself laughing out loud at some of the comments. Beats the recent ramping/deramping nonsense. To those that passed judgement before the webinar had even finished (literally minutes in) and the full story was told - I hope you give your investment in Avacta more of a chance tell it’s story. All in all a useful insight into the minds of the teams working on the products. If they are confident of delivering a very high performing test, as they said they were, then so am I. Now I know why AS keeps banging on about the scale of demand and partnerships to deliver as this is clearly the real crux to meeting the full demand from launch
Great notes Canute. Very well captured and thanks for sharing. One small correction on your second post of notes. Klaus confirmed it was false negatives that are the biggest issue and hence specificity should be traded off for improved sensitivity to a certain degree. He did labour the point about false positives saying that half the positives that get checked by PCR could be negative. I didn’t follow his maths on that but clearly better to do this way round in order to prevent the disease spreading. Better still you avoid the spread on common cold corona viruses too!
They started by saying how hard it was and that the bar is set really high. They need a 95% reliable test minimum. Lots of talk about scaling up manufacturing to meet the huge demand. But they then all said they can do it and it will be done. You had to watch the whole thing including the q&a to get the message but I am now more confident of a very high performing LFT being delivered