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Sona’s first batches all need to go to Canada too from what I understand under the terms of a grant they received. I’m sure they could work something out with the right manufacturing capacity but Avacta don’t have this constraint

But I thought the clinical validation results of Sona’s test were nothing to write home about? Will it get approved by the FDA on those results when the bar has been set much higher now? There FDA approval is well overdue from what I read. Avacta/Cytiva could easily jump them if what we think we know about the test is true...

Could the BAMS test provide some form of quantitative analysis, rather than just positive/negative, that allows the lifecycle stage of the virus to be determined during testing?

‘Affimer reagents that can work in pairs, both binding to the spike protein at the same time. This allows tests to be developed that detect both the intact virus particle and the detached spike proteins which become separated from the virus particle during the development of the COVID-19 disease, which may also be important in monitoring disease progression‘

Even just two stages could be useful. Would be interesting to know how the BAMS test is being developed for the market. Could it help address this issue:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54000629

I’m not aware of anyone doing this yet so seems like a USP in a part of the testing market dominated by PCR at present. Thoughts?

GreenKitty, you’re not really giving a balanced view though are you except for saying you want out and it isn’t going up unless an RNS comes out. If you’d researched just a little bit you’d be confident of an RNS coming out in the next few weeks. There’s lots of products being developed in parallel so could be regarding any. I am fairly confident the share price dropped from £2 due to the 120p placing last time. The sp tends to overshoot each way. You might be surprised and see the sp rise with no RNS over the next few weeks like it just did. It’s clear to me both the BAMS test and LFT are being validated by the UK gov even though some people struggle to see what’s right in front of them. They’ll be working under NDA and announcements will be coordinated once The tests are ready to launch. I see many posters gripped by fear as their investment starts to bear fruit rather than sitting back and relaxing as their original decision to invest is vindicated. Good luck on wherever you put your money next

AS has been highlighting the demand for the Avacta LFT over the last few months in various interviews. I like the one where he refers to it as being ‘astronomical’. And now Matt Han**** has call the mass testing operation ‘Moon Shot’. It’s clear AS knows what he’s doing, has the vision to succeed and is focused on delivering the results. We should see news on the LFT approval and gov order in the next 4 weeks at the latest. People buying now to take a position or increase their holding as news could drop any time between now and then

I really thought this would drift back down to 90p after the h2h update RNS rise. So far the sp has held up incredibly well. Looks like I’ll have to buy more at 125+ Next week minimum. I’m personally trying to load up before the end of summer and the US deal lands. Held out for too long so far and missed 90p a couple of weeks back

I was sure AS wouldn’t communicate any lab based S&S figures for the LFT as he would wait for the clinical validation results however in the latest interview he says:

I’m not going to get into the detail of the analytical performance figures right now...there will be an appropriate time to discuss those along with the clinical performance‘

I have a feeling we may get some numbers from the LSTM work in the next couple of weeks otherwise why say that? I do think some good S&S figures will propel the sp significantly higher as it’s really the only specific unknown now other than it’s works and AS is very happy.

xyz, and that’s why Sanofi bought Ablynx for $4.8bn!

A number of new posters here turned up on the RNS yesterday. People saying the RNS was fantastic really don’t have a clue. It was what we had already been told it has just been formalised now. The H2H study failed its primary end point. Over a year the results are equivalent which is positive. This is one of the reasons the share price dropped earlier in the year when they declared the error in the analysis. The other is the time it’s taking to get a US deal. It dropped a bit due to Coronavirus but it’s the US deal really driving the price.

I expect this to drift back to 90p now as people who jumped in on the RNS realise what it was. Check the chart, every time this makes up ground it drifts back.

The big prize is the US deal due end of summer (August or by 23rd Sept but open to interpretation). You have to bear in mind we were promised this In 2019 so almost a years down the road. I am confident it will come in 2020 though hence this is a hold. The sp will likely hit 170p+ when it does land. But this will drift as people realised the timescales are longer than they expected once they actually do their research.

I think this may be the precursor to releasing some initial lab validation S&S results for the LFT ahead of the clinical validation results which will take a few weeks. We could hear something shortly

I agree. You might think it’s just lucky timing but what’s the bet Avacta/Cytiva we’re talking to the FDA about the requirements whilst they were being drafted and were aware of the release date. AS making none of the same mistakes by rushing, releasing preliminary data or communicating fixed dates in the development/approval process. Each milestone is completed right first time. Such a class act

You don’t need anywhere near that number for the clinical validation results.

I expect we will see S&S results and CE mark in the first week of Sept.

New gold standard BAMS test between now and then

Great RNS. Fantastic partner. Well done to all holders who have ignored all the noise. BAMS and the LFT milestones are stacking up nicely now

It think Avacta and Cytiva are working closely with various potential manufacturing partners to optimise the LFT for volume production. We need 20 millions tests a month to get started. AS told us the LFT works. I think the test performance is probably being traded off for manufacturing transfer speed and scalability. At least that’s what I’d be doing. We need a test to serve the market not the best performing LFT possible. I don’t know a lot about LFT design but given what AS has said so far about talking to manufacturing partners yet no deal so far I think they are completing some up front design for manufacture work to ensure we get the right partners in place who can meet the demand. This process will inevitably involve changing the LFT performance input variables hence Cytiva will be in the middle of it and we haven’t yet locked down the final design.

I think the next LFT RNS could be huge. I’d rather see (the market wants) 20m tests a month at 90% sensitivity than 100k tests a month at 98%.

Forget two versions for now as that just adds in extra complexity but certainly an option for the future.

We also don’t know Avacta’s Affimer manufacturing capacity. Could this be a current constraint? They said some of the £10m was to be used to scale that up. Could we be looking at outsourcing the Affimer production? Again, it all depends on the number needed to achieve the test performance.

brightspark, They didn’t quote any S&S numbers in the BAMS RNS so would expect there to not be any in a ‘LFT prototype ready’ RNS. Whilst they will have some lab trial numbers it’s the clinical validation ones that are important to securing huge orders. The more relevant news in the short term is who is making them, how many and when. We may only find out who to start with.

RD your numbers are out by a factor of 1000. In your example they would need to sell 850 million tests to hit £1.7bn profit. Whilst these are huge numbers AS has stated many times in various presentations that ‘hundreds of millions of antigen tests will be required per month’.

The expected costs and sale price(s) were shown in an early presentation on 6th May. However I can’t find the one on the website with slide I’ve taken a screen shot of. It said ‘A Covid-19 antigen test strip is expected to cost ~$2 to manufacture, sell to consumers for ~30 and...in bulk for ~$15 per test.

By my calcs to hit your profit figure (£1.7bn) we need to sell ~190 million tests which is ~15.8 million tests per month. Whilst a lot it’s certainly within the realm of possibility if the test performs as good as we hope it will.

When you are talking these numbers it’s clear that success now is all down to manufacturing capacity and ramp up.

If Avacta did achieve this then the sp would be way in excess of £10 in my view.

Avacta are doing a great job in knocking down the challenges of bringing a mass screening rapid POC antigen test to market.
Secure capital and build team - check
Nail the sensitivity and specificity - check
Gain access to clinical samples - check
Secure required manufacturing capacity to meet demand - watch this space
Set up global distribution network - check
The quality of the partnerships/collaborations speaks volumes. It’s clear AS is letting his actions do the talking. I think he’s being very smart in not releasing any early S&S results or provisional orders. What’s the point. It’s the clinical validation and big contracts that are important.

Something is brewing in the manufacturing space. Another of the key challenges highlighted by the company. AS has been signposting it for a while now. The fact we haven’t heard anything yet makes me think he’s working on something big. I’m now expecting something like the RTC type set up with the government facilitating or a big industry collaboration. Makes sense to go big from the start if the demand is set to be as astronomical as indicated/we can see. My confidence in Avacta is only building

This could be the making of CONDOR. Yes it’s good news for Avacta and what we expected but the gov department set up for exactly this reason will want to deliver results. Avacta will help them exceed their goals.

It’s all too easy to calculate your alternate universe net worth on all those trades you could have made. It’s human nature. This year for me it’s TSLA, BYND, EUA, TXP, GDR. In fairness I’ve timed a few right and also dodged a couple of bullets. I try to look forward, continuously research and focus on why I’m invested. I’m not losing any sleep sitting on Avacta whilst other shares do their thing. The next leg up for Avacta will come soon

Yes I agree Energyshares. The UoS trail is no doubt designed around and focused on the optigene test. Therefore it is the optigene trial however it’s clear from the statement that samples will be used to evaluate the Avacta test(s) amongst others. Which test we don’t know. As DW said in the labroots webinar, access to patient samples is a challenge. It seems like Avacta have reached out to the gov for help and it’s being provided. We should therefore get some feedback of the back of this even if it’s just the initial 100 odd samples for approvals results.