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Back to the old pattern of drop in am them steady rise back up into the pm? Lots to look forward to:

AGM Monday so should get an update that all is on plan
BAMS test performance data should be being collected and progressing to completion within the next week
LFT prototype end of June
Affimer Covid treatment partner in ‘very near future’

Hard to tell what will come first but Avacta often do throw in a surprise

I know right now it all feels like jam tomorrow right now but this is some tasty fruit ripe for picking in the next couple of weeks

Perhaps we need another webinar where we get the experts from each company/institution together to tell us about the challenges of getting a treatment to market. Just don’t invite any Germans :-). In all seriousness though it was clear this was progressing in the background given the lack of an update (although signposted) in the recent presentations. I am still buzzing more from what we learnt in last nights webinar on the LFT. My expectation for the LFT performance have gone up significantly and those that understand the challenges most clearly said they can do it/it will be done. So much exciting news on the horizon on all fronts

Better to just look at the closing price each day than watch it jump up and down in the first hour of trading. I wouldn’t be surprised if we close at a high by the end of the day as savvy investors digest the news and buy on the dips throughout the day

Very good point Ophidian. I hadn’t thought of that but you are spot on with your observation. Very promising. What we do know is the BAMS prototype is complete. ’ Highly specific prototype test detects the virus spike protein at clinically relevant concentrations’. And AS comments ‘This bodes well for all our COVID-19 antigen test development programmes’.

Looks like the Affimers are performing very very well in both tests then!

I actually found tonight’s board here really comical with also some great insights shared. I found myself laughing out loud at some of the comments. Beats the recent ramping/deramping nonsense. To those that passed judgement before the webinar had even finished (literally minutes in) and the full story was told - I hope you give your investment in Avacta more of a chance tell it’s story. All in all a useful insight into the minds of the teams working on the products. If they are confident of delivering a very high performing test, as they said they were, then so am I. Now I know why AS keeps banging on about the scale of demand and partnerships to deliver as this is clearly the real crux to meeting the full demand from launch

Great notes Canute. Very well captured and thanks for sharing. One small correction on your second post of notes. Klaus confirmed it was false negatives that are the biggest issue and hence specificity should be traded off for improved sensitivity to a certain degree. He did labour the point about false positives saying that half the positives that get checked by PCR could be negative. I didn’t follow his maths on that but clearly better to do this way round in order to prevent the disease spreading. Better still you avoid the spread on common cold corona viruses too!

They started by saying how hard it was and that the bar is set really high. They need a 95% reliable test minimum. Lots of talk about scaling up manufacturing to meet the huge demand. But they then all said they can do it and it will be done. You had to watch the whole thing including the q&a to get the message but I am now more confident of a very high performing LFT being delivered

The sp always seems to overshoot in both directions. As crazy as the rise to £2 was the drop was overdone. Back to normality and Avacta delivering blockbuster products

I am not too concerned about traders jumping in and out on the expectation of an RNS. Whether it’s today, tomorrow or next week it really is only a few days away now until we get news of the LFT prototype. I can’t see AS signposting that 2.5 weeks out and getting it wrong. I can see people jumping in today on the expectation of news however are they really going to sell out when we are so close to mid summer and product launch?

Much more sensible board tonight thankfully. A big shout out to Edwina who was the only one to call today spot in their post ‘Decade of Wisdom’ at 22:03 last night.

I excited by tomorrow’s webinar with Cytiva. Not because it will tell us anything new about Avacta’s test status but because I enjoy following the science.

Let’s hope the momentum really has turned today and we get a steady rise back up to where we were post fundraising announcement to build on when the BAMS performance results and/or LFT news drops

Yesterday was a fairly rubbish day for most UK Covid testing shares. The opposite seemed true in the US. Quidel rose 18% to $8.5bn driven I think by its POC PCR test. I know that’s different to us but clearly in the US investors are not seeing Covid going away anytime soon or a vaccine as the near term solution. Sona are not fairing too bad either. GDR taking a hit now. Seems a disconnect between US and UK domestic test companies. I believe that demand for testing of every type will outstrip supply for a good year so competition is not an issue. Clearly capturing the market sooner is key so important to get the tests approved and on sale.

Global what’s your motive here? Your posts are getting tedious now. You seemed genuine to begin with on here and now its the same deramping monotonous nonsense over and over. Are you bitter, trying to be a good Samaritan and save us all or just looking for a lower entry? I’m genuinely interested.

I suggest we all take your own advice that you offered on another poster a while back:
‘ Sharehunter3's posting history is horrendous, the guys clearly playing games, ignore the guy’

HL live prices (if you have it turned on) is very sketchy at peak times so you are seeing the 15 min delayed price.

It’s 107.35 to sell now for me.

I am actually surprised by the sp this am. Yes they did the drop to 95 to sell but within a few minutes it was back over 100p and now its flying. I thought there would be a lot more nervous PIs selling out first thing. Well done those that hold albeit let’s see where we end the day

I was quoted £1.041 to sell :-)

Moving up quickly now

Yep. Who could buy for under £1?

It seems like a big seller wanted out regardless of price which has weighed on the sp. Now with the current sentiment and slower buying that brought the price down. Look at Avacta’s largest holders. If it was one of them selling out over the last few weeks then we will find out but even they don’t hold much more than 16m shares. Today over 19m changed hands. This leads me to believe a load of stop losses have been triggered between 100-120p which has exacerbated the selling pressure. Then we have the seasoned traders who will protect capital watching this unfold and getting out of the way. I do think we’ve got a lot more new inexperienced traders/investors having a go whilst on furlough/reduced hours adding to the volatility. I think tomorrow will be a tough day as the jitters seem rife on here. We will get the inevitable drop first thing but hopefully this flushes the last few out at around 95p and then we start the recovery back to 110-120p this week. It did seem to bounce off 97p back over 100p at the end so I’m hoping we don’t dip under 100p tomorrow at all.

Great post Eagle. A great opportunity to buy or top up here but sadly I have no spare funds.

I also think the sp drop to 106/7 was a self fulfilling prophecy driven by sentiment of PIs. We even had some of the LTHs on here stating they had sold as they expected ‘games’. That only adds to the selling pressure for the MMs to work with.

You say PIs looking to move funds elsewhere but unless it’s cash that seems like a bad idea to me given the general market sentiment at the moment. Most shares I was looking at look very overbought given the reality of where the fundamentals are.

Hopefully we see a reversal from here on as I’ve forgotten what a couple of blue days feels like here. The sp teds to overshoot in both directions so I think we should settle around 120p until further meaningful news on the Covid tests.

On Wednesday?

Sparta, it’s actually Conifer Management (advised by Ruane) and yes their largest holding is Google (27.4% of the fund as per their 13F filing). So nothing to do with Sequoia Capital but there is a link the the Sequoia fund in the fact that they are both managed/advised by Ruane. Amazing news to have Ruane/Conifer on board. AS answered the question well and correctly

Also the BAMS test is ~3 weeks ahead and likely to follow a similar timeline so should provide a good parallel news flow. No idea what the market size or even interest in that is though