Member Info for ShearClass

It was a £205m market cap at the ASX IPO price so the placing was 3.6% of share capital, i.e. not material at all. GGP might get away with a 5% discount, but we'll know for sure when the prospectus drops in the next couple of weeks. Either way, I'm looking forward to the next chapter...

Sageman, agree with your analysis and there is little doubt that a lot of the profit taking has been down to rebalancing & those who are 200% up on the 4.8p placing shares. However, the elephant in the room that is surely holding back the share price is the likelihood of a 'compliance placing' prior to ASX admission.

It's pretty much certain that any ASX placing would be done at a discount to the prevailing AIM share price, as if you are looking to demonstrate demand you have to price at a discount. If we adjust our current share price of 13.7p for the impending 20-1 consolidation & multiply by the current AUD FX rate of 2.06 we get AUD5.644. My assumption is that any 'compliance placing' will be done at the round number price of AUD 5, which equates to just over 12p. We'll know as soon as the prospectus is filed and then the market makers will have a couple of weeks to mess around with the AIM share price.

FWIW I have been through this process before with Atlantic Lithium in September 2022. They released their prospectus on 15/08/22 and announced a placing for A$13.25m at A$0.58, back then at an FX rate of AUD1.71, that was equivalent to 34p. The share price on the day before the prospectus filing was 37.4p, so the discount was just under 10%

I'm happy to hold my core position through this as it's obviously possible they place at a higher price, but AUD 5 feels like a logical candidate to me.

Amazing how tight share supply is here. No quote to buy 400k shares / £8k, so building a position requires patience or bidding the price up. Compare to PAT where you can easily buy / sell £20k chunks. What it tells me is that there aren't many sellers at these levels & that in time shares will head significantly higher.

That's a critical RNS filing today IMO. I bought into PAT far too early as it took them almost a year from receiving litigation funding to formally start the claim. Not so here. If they proceed with a $2.2b claim then the current market cap is way off. It looks fairly likely that we'll get a statement of claim this year too, so there isn't long to wait & they are fully funded for the foreseeable future.

It's hard to get your head around a claim that is nearly ~64x the current market cap...

CMA remedies working paper suggests purely regulatory solutions https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/68130b11c47c2060a912172b/Remedies_-_vets_market_investigation_working_paper__1_.pdf

Another bad day at the office for GLG and the rest of the short seller crew

Currently no quote for just 50k shares at 12.9p, so it feels like a matter of time before this is back in the 14-16p range. For what it's worth, only Berenberg (12.9p) and Cannacord (13p) are quoting less than 13.3p on the L2 order book. I often wonder whether Berenberg are day trading the ranges themselves and creating buy / sell volume to accumulate a position...

@rotherby1, your northern star figures are well off;

They sold 385koz gold at A$4028 for A$1552m revenue

We were "89,125oz Au and 3,705t Cu at weighted average realised prices of A$4,585/oz gold and A$13,140/t copper, generating revenue of A$458m".

So Northern Stars production was 332% higher than GGP and gold revenue 280% higher. However, they do have a £10.9b market cap which is ~542% higher than GGP.

So I agree that we stack up well, but both your production & sales price figures for NST are materially wrong.

Getting very interesting now that's for sure. Demand is greater than supply and this will surely continue right up to SOC release. 24p is the next significant technical resistance on the chart & with current momentum it looks possible that we could get there before news. What happens after that all depends on the value of the claim, if it's >$1.5b then we could potentially test the 35p ATH set in late 2020. Higher than that and all bets are off IMO.

Clearly the in ground value of Bhukia is now off the charts, whether or not that has implications on the SOC value is key. If PAT base a claim value on the NPV of lost earnings at the current gold price then it could be eye watering.

I.e. If we pencil in Bhukia as a 400oz per annum producer it would have an 18 year mine life based on a 7.2moz reserve. Using $3300oz gold and $1300 AISC and increasing both by inflation of 3.8% PA, applying a 30% tax deduction and an 8% discount rate you get a present value of future cash flows $5.25b. Deduct ~$1b for construction costs and you have a value of $4.2b

How realistic is 400koz production? $1300 AISC? It doesn't feel crazy to me? Maybe we'll go with something around the $2b mark to reflect a lower annual production, lower gold price or higher costs? After nearly 2 years of waiting I'm very excited that we are only a few days from finding out :)

Interesting price action as always here - there was a breakaway gap at 12 -12.25p created two Friday's back, which was the trading day before the quarterly release. Whilst this mornings plunge didn't quite fill that gap it came close enough, we may need a further go to get it completely closed but technical support in the 12p region has been strengthened.

You've also got further technical support from Fibonacci retracement levels, with a 23.6% retracement from Tuesday's 15.95p intraday high being 12.2p. 12.2p is also the top of the 3 month rising channel which has provided support / resistance on many occasions.

All in all the price action is healthy, as it shakes out weak hands & strengthens the support base.

Ps. I ran a number of FY26 scenarios this morning to build conviction in the near term earnings case. Even if POG was to average $2500 next year, if production was 340koz and Cannacord's total operating cost per ounce remained as is (£1349), then EPS would be ~1.2p, putting shares on 11x earnings at 12.6p. The broker base case is 303koz @$3126, giving EPS of 1.9p and a current PE of 6.6x

And if you use Goldman's $3700 year end gold price forecast and 340koz production then I get 2.9p EPS, putting shares on 4.3x PER...

None of the above factor in any value for Havieron, which I think would easily underpin a £1.5-2b market cap if it was trading separately as a development asset a la Hemi / De Grey.

So IMO we have a terrific margin of safety and I now intend to stop watching the price of gold! Bring on the ASX listing.

21p would be 11x next years forecast earnings with any buyer effectively getting Havieron & cash for free! And those earnings are based on 309koz @3100 Au.

IMO nobody would be stupid enough to make such a low ball bid.

Based on the midpoint of this mornings 2026 plan + assuming a $2900 average gold price for 2026 I have estimated EPS of ~1.7p, putting shares on a PE of ~8.5x. Is that fair? Well there is clearly still execution risk with Havieron, and if that doesn't come on line on schedule then shares will suffer. Likewise, with Telfer I think most are happy to bake in another decade of production, however it's never as simple as that and the market will assume it won't until proven otherwise.

My view is shares will continue to re-rate as milestones are cleared. Full year results in September should see a further bump and if a material discovery is made at WDD + Havieron clears the final aquifer then shares will likely be valued at 12-15x forward PE this time next year.

The reality is GGP has been a huge success year to date & a welcome double for me from my 6.8p entry price. I do feel that the easiest money has been made, but for long term holders there is so much to be excited about. As for the CEO, bravo! If only there were more LSE listed leaders with so much integrity & ambition.

Gall, I suspect he's on borrowed time after this charade. Either way, gold should benefit.

Iamgold, Gold Fields, Barrick & Agnico all up big this evening, almost back to where they traded mid last week. FTSE100 futures up 5.6%. Suspect we'll be up >10% tomorrow, these last couple of days were a lovely chance to accumulate on the macro weakness. It's also another example of how a wider market correction impacts everything, regardless of fundamentals.

IMO they know financial reality will stop mindless speculation and sink the share price. The FCA should force them to disclose forecasts ASAP to avoid a false market, particularly when Optibiotix continues to sell.

I think it's a disgrace that the FCA allow companies to operate like this.

SBTX can't whinge about the inflated share price selling off if they aren't prepared to disclose ANY commercial info.

Share prices aren't based on how loud a standing ovation a product gets, they are based on estimated future cash flows.

I think SBTX is overvalued by at least 50% given they are a black box. IMO they need disclose either internal forecasts or actual royalty rates ASAP or they are creating an increasingly false market.

I agree with that PK. Plus given the current market conditions it's a bit of a lottery as to the impact of the SoC on the share price. If it landed on a day like yesterday there is every possibility that the market simply shrugs and shares remain where they are. That would then create a problem for the hot money which is undoubtedly waiting for the near term catalyst, and could mean the share price suffers a short term fall. I've been conscious of this when managing position size here and also not being greedy in taking some profit from the sub 7p days.

Longer term if we win the case then of course many multiples are possible, however that is at least 2 years away based on GRX et al.

The number of shares a company has in issue is totally irrelevant. If there are no buyers then the law of supply and demand dictates that the price will fall until it reaches equilibrium. The 31% tariff on Swiss watches might not bother the ultra rich, but there is no chance that the average US consumer is going to drop an extra $5k+ on a watch when such a tariff might be removed at any moment. If the tariffs are implemented, then the very least it will cause a temporary drop in sales which will see a disproportionate drop through to PBT / EPS.

The 15% drop is completely understandable, particularly given the level of surprise & the uncertainty it's created.

Statement of claim a max 31 trading days away now, all we require is a breakout above 12p to get things moving again IMO.

Given the state of the markets I'd imagine there is a lot more cash on the sidelines than usual, which should work in our favour. I'm looking for £50m of SOC release, which would match the valuation reached by Prairie / GreenX. Of course, should the SOC be above expectations this target moves higher. The rocketing gold price can't do us any harm as if nothing else it makes the Bhukia asset look even more desirable...

It looks to be all about vanity - I.e. they can claim faster revenue growth rates, better profit margins, better ROIC etc. Certainly bizarre to sell a profitable segment with such a long history for a net £25m.

The one large drawback of having 500 shops rebrand is the loss of free brand marketing, although I guess that won't matter much given their travel strategy is to extort customers simply by being in the right locations.

Looks fairly valued to me, it doesn't produce much in the way of FCF after CAPEX & this disposal won't change that fact.

Blows my mind that PI's would be selling this with less than 2 months until SOC. I wonder when FOMO kicks in? Likely another few weeks of consolidation before the build up begins in earnest...