Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Yes very good news this morning, the board own nearly 10% of shares in total here which is certainly a big positive. Shares are extremely scarce and it's not hard to see why when you compare market cap vs potential incoming claim size.
Technically we have broken out and set a higher high, this makes sense given the progress made & impending milestones ahead. It would be ideal to retest the 1 year high / resistance at 10-11p before claim quantum lands. Then a claim break above should see 20p+ come into view.
Also on how long LIT took to agree the funding, I think this is easy to explain. PAT announced the funding when it was conditional, whereas the likes of Prairie/GreenX didn't release anything until funding was unconditional.
It was also 6 months from the first announcement, not 1 year, and they ended up committing more capital than initially proposed.
I just don't think LIT would get involved in a claim like this unless the evidence was watertight
Gallmat, it will make no difference what the government sells the asset for, the value will be determined by the India - Aus BIT. The BIT is essential DD;
https://edit.wti.org/document/show/84d54d73-935f-4f41-87d8-49c7b6e894ec
The BIT states; "The compensation referred to in paragraph 1 of this Article shall be computed on the basis of the market value of the investment immediately before the expropriation or impending expropriation became public knowledge"
As for their attitude towards the litigation, if they've already expropriated an asset why would they care about litigation? Bear in mind Indo Gold got the exploration license back on 2005, the project was then blocked for nearly 15 years before they officially changed the law in 2021, if they were bothered about legal cases then they wouldn't have changed the law...
Great news on the Bhukia auctions.
@Gallmat, I posted the below on 29th Jan, obtained from the GreenX hot copper forum on ASX.
Expropriation is the lesser of two evils & much cheaper, even if it costs the government $1b they will make it back via the sale & then multiples via the tax income as the mine will almost certainly be developed via a local entity.
"Related to GreenX, but the government attitude is extremely relevant to PAT's case;
"An interesting article was written by what seems to be a pro-Polish government journalist. Link below:
https://naszeblogi.pl/65852-bezpieczenstwo-surowcowe-nie-ma-ceny
The final paragraph of this article has some interesting points. English translation below:
"key deposits of coking coal to create competition for Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa.
What was at stake was shown by the latest results of JSW, which earned a record PLN 7 billion in 2022.
Thanks to the efficient policy of Deputy Prime Minister Jacek Sasin and Minister of Climate and Environment Anna Moskva, the situation is now under control. An example is the Dębieńsko deposit. Its value was discussed by the previous management boards of JSW, which wanted to buy it from the Australians. These are the last large deposits of the most valuable type 35 coal in Poland. Estimates by Prairie Mining indicated that approximately 93 million tons of coking coal suitable for mining were deposited in Dębieńsko. Prices reach over PLN 1,000 per ton, which means that resources worth PLN 93 billion were at stake.
Of course, this bold policy comes at a price. Foreign investors have filed claims, which they pursue before the arbitration court in The Hague. The case is on the final straight and the verdict will be delivered soon. The value of these claims is over PLN 4 billion, but even if Poland loses the case and has to pay a one-off compensation, which according to legal experts is likely, the profits far outweigh the potential losses.
It can therefore be concluded that for the amount of several billion zlotys, it was possible to recover strategic deposits, the value of which is many times greater. More importantly, we managed to secure the security of raw materials and energy for many years, as well as ensure stability and a good future for important state-owned companies."
@Gallmat, IMO you can get a clue about the claim size here by comparing it to the Prairie Mining / Green X metals funding package.
"LCM will provide up to US$12.3m (A$18m) in limited recourse financing which is repayable to LCM in the event of a successful Claim or settlement of the Dispute that results in the recovery of any monies. If there is no settlement or award, then LCM is not entitled to any repayment of the financing facility. In return for providing the financing facility, LCM shall be entitled to receive repayment of any funds drawn plus an amount equal to between two and five times the total of any funds drawn from the funding facility during the first five years, depending on the time frame over which funds have remained drawn, and then a 30% interest rate after the fifth year until receipt of damages payments."
The claim size was announced the following year at £806m and subsequently revised to £737m.
LCM have provided USD13m of non recourse funding to Panthera, note that this amount was increased from the USD10m originally agreed in the conditional package last Feb.
Given how experienced LCM are, I can't imagine for a minute that they won't have standardised practices for how much capital is invested in a case vs the potential return, and this calculation will include assumptions around the potential for a negotiated settlement & of course factor in the time value of money.
I'd therefore be very surprised if the claim quantum is lower than GreenX, and the publicly available facts reinforce this belief.
Prairie was valued at £45m post the claim file, which would be ~25p here, based on the issued share capital.
Greenx is now on the cusp of finding out whether it's won it's case & has a market cap of £147m, so from the current market cap of £10m, PAT has a potentially very exciting path over the next few years
Polkadot is number 13 on coinmarketcap, the only crypto's ahead of it which aren't stablecoins or the big 2 are #12 Chainlink, #11 Tron, #10 Avalanche, #9 Doge, #8Cardano, #6 XRP, #5 Solana, that order hasn't changed for a long time, with Solana the last new entrant to the top 10 about 2 years ago?
So I'd politely say you don't have a clue what you are talking about :)
Interesting bit on Polkadot. The last formally disclosed holding at 31/12/22 was 3,965,940 coins, up from 3.646,743 at 31/12/21, so they are HODLing all of staking yield they receive. At 31/01/24, their holding was valued at £23,688,678 based on a USD rate of 1.2679, so converted it was $30,034,875. At midnight on 31st Jan DOT was valued at $6.65, so their holding has swelled to 4,516,522 coins over the last 13 months, an extra 550k.
DOT hit $55 in the last Bull cycle and is currently threatening a major breakout at $8.76. Based on Twitter sentiment, it appears DOT is in a far stronger position now than it was back in 2021, so there would certainly be some justification for a return to it's ATH and beyond over the next few months.
At $55 KR1's holding would be worth $248m / £1.10 a share...
Here are some absolute corkers to get stuck into over the weekend;
Presentation deck from an Indo Gold A$10m pre IPO round in 2007, intended to precede a full AIM listing;
https://slideplayer.com/amp/4620845/
So many exciting details in the 44 page deck it's hard to know where to start!
There are also loads of articles from early 2007 on the Indo Gold discovery in Jagpura, I.e.
https://www.diamondworld.net/news/815
"Indo Gold will invest up to Rs.20 billion ($450 million) to develop a modern mine in Rajasthan. We will also invest in primary and secondary processing plants on site,� said Mike Higgins, the managing director of Indo Gold. �The deposits are world-class and we hope to start commercial production in four years,� he added. The annual Jagpura mine gold output is expected to be around 8 tonnes, according to the company."
8 tonnes = 292koz per annum, or ~$570m revenue in todays gold prices...
This could be absolutely massive - the LCM funding starts to make a lot more sense now.
"Ok, here goes my claim quantum effort - no investment advice / DYOR...
IMO there are three key factors that will be used to determine the market value of the investment at the time of the alleged expropriation in 2021; the in ground value of the gold, when the expropriation became public knowledge & the estimated size of the resource at that point in time.
I found this 2015 research report really useful to try and put some meat on the bones of some analysis;
http://www.cipherresearch.com/reports/150601_The-Real-Value-of-Gold-in-the-Ground.pdf
It studied 253 transactions involving gold companies between 1990-2013 and determined that the average price paid per in ground oz was $63. The average price of gold over the 24 year study period was $605/oz. So the average transaction paid 10.4% of the 'in ground' value. That may be skewed by the fact that for 16 of those 24 years gold averaged ~$350, but to me that seems like a sensible figure to use and leaves some upside.
The 1999 BIT states; "The compensation referred to in paragraph 1 of this Article shall be computed on the basis of the market value of the investment immediately before the expropriation or impending expropriation became public knowledge"
Based on this link it looks like 15th March 2021 was when the bill was first introduced; https://prsindia.org/billtrack/the-mines-and-minerals-development-and-regulation-amendment-bill-2021
'Immediately before this on the 14th March 2021 gold traded at $1720, so using the 10.4% figure above, that gives us an in ground market value of ~$178.88/oz
Then we just have to apply that to the resource size. IMO there is no chance PAT are just going to claim for the 2008 JORC of 1.74Moz given how much that figure would have risen in the 13 years between then and the official expropriation. However, even if the arbitration panel decided to use that figure it would still come to a claim size of $311m, or some 20x the current market cap. That's the ultimate downside here IMO.
However, it's far more likely that PAT will utilise the 2 resource studies from the GSI, the 6.7Moz from 2014 or the 7.9Moz from 2021 that I posted earlier on.
6.7Moz * $178.88 = ~$1.2b
7.9Moz * $178.88 = ~$1.4b
That's the size of the prize... and before anyone says they could claim for 10Moz+, they would need some reasonable basis to do so, that is what makes the GSI work potentially so valuable."
Just over 6 months now since the LCM funding was finalised & now 2 months since the notice of dispute was filed. The next 6 months should see some very material newsflow. I'll repost a few items from the autumn as I think they are useful the bear in mind during the quiet times...
Yep, the CFO only owns 8196 shares! Honestly comical. Got paid £190k basic in FY22 + a £70k bonus. Do as they do, not as they say...
It's got nothing to do with shorters and all about the dangers of a herd mentality, a very questionable BOD and a stock exchange which appears to shrug it's shoulders at blatant insider trading.
Even at 50p the pre money market cap is £144m, you then have to add the £38.5m remaining on the convertible. If they get shareholder approval for the extra £6.2m + the £6.8m REX offer is filled then the post money market cap will be £210m. For a company with one 1 clinical P1a drug & minimal capital vs international competitors, that is a lot of money.
Just look at fellow AIM biotech REDX pharma, who have a substantial pipeline with several near term read out + several partners. Their market cap is £72m...
Another more fundamental issue is that 2020/21 saw a flood of early stage biotech's list on NASDAQ & the vast majority went bust. Institutional investors have prioritised funding rounds for companies with P3 assets, ideally ones which have FDA approval & are preparing for launch. AVCT are clearly nowhere near there yet. They need to get clear cut efficacy data showing statistically significant results vs SOC, including good old P values, then raise further capital.
Certainly, that's what the board appear to be signalling with their combined £65k investment? Smith + the CFO, Chairman took home £789k in FY22. I'd suspect Coughlin is on £200k+ Smith's basic salary was £286k...
I still contend that this is ultimately a lifestyle company with some decent scientific assets which has been heavily pumped to a mostly unaware audience. Sadly it's what the UK small cap biotech space has evolved into. If you want good biotechs, research Sweden, Denmark, Australia + the US. They are out there in abundance & once you do the research you'll spot the rancid apples a mile off.
It's DOT, ATOM, ICP & Lido which will re-rate this towards £5. Alts will rally in the next few months, the only questions appears to be how high they go...
Sounds like you need to look on NASDAQ, anything with those characteristics wouldn't have been on AIM since 2006...
WTF is going on here? Tipped in the Sunday Times, results on Monday which said they had to rely on customer payments to continue operating, placing on Tuesday, $20m contract win Wednesday. 46p > 72p ?
An utter farce IMO. Shares shouldn't have been trading for any of this period, and there is no way they should be placing for £1m 2 trading hours before a material contract win is announced. The FCA need to sort out AIM immediately, these companies clearly think they can do what they want.
Note the RNS released on 19/06/23 regarding placing speculation at that time, quashing any rumours and emphasising the newsflow to come. I'm very surprised that a similar RNS wasn't issue this morning if nothing was going on. Looking at the order book into close yesterday I was sure a placing was pending but nothing yet... If you want an AIM share price to fall further then create a news vacuum, people will usually quite rightly assume the worst.
The one other thought I had was maybe II's are playing hard ball due to the £38m convertible? It's a large amount of money to clear, yet I suspect it was the only way to access such a sum in October 22.
Interesting day to come that's for sure...
It's a good deal for those 'lucky' individuals that bought in yesterday, triggering a 16% rise. Blocks of 10k shares being bought all day - thought of buying in but didn't pull the trigger.
I think the market reaction can be explained by looking at the last segmental breakdown in the half year results;
TIC contributed £13.5m of the £33m adjusted operating profit for H124 and had £5.8m in dep'n and amort. So just £7.7m of operating profit. GRC was £22.9m adjusted operating profit, £19m operating profit after dep'n & amort.
So GRC has been sold for just 11x operating profit and 9x adjusted operating profit.
They've chucked in what appears to be a customised metric "16.2x proforma adjusted cash EBITDA" to make it look good value, I've never heard of anyone using adjusted cash EBITDA...
So if GRC has gone for 11x operating profit and TIC had £7.8m operating profit in H1, I think the max anyone could value TIC at is £170m. If we value it at 9x H1 adjusted operating profit of £13.5m then we get £243m. However, both valuations ignore £6.8m of head office costs...
Bottom line, post the £150m shareholder return I don't see how a business with ~£9m of operating profit can be valued at much more than £200m?
It looks looks like a strong buy until you read note 13 re. legal proceedings. It'll never trade at a decent multiple given the seemingly endless stream of litigation... Nevertheless, a nice trade this morning and good luck to those who hold for the US listing...
@Servalan, which numbers are moving in the right direction?!
Prescriptions of 77k vs a 28th September forecast of 100-130k ?
Cash was $13.5m at 30/06/23, they then added $20m secured debt + $6.1m equity placing in September, at at 31/12/23 cash was back at $13.9m... so cash burn was $26m for H223?
Based on that their current cash balance won't get them past the end of Q2, if they are lucky.
Q4 revenue was still pathetic - 2024 forecasts were for $62m, they aren't anywhere near this run rate (which was still projected to result in a ~$10m loss)
So which numbers are you referring to?
I was amazed this opened at 5p, in reality it should have been 2.5p at max. Viatris will end up with the drug IMO. Administration beckons as nobody will believe what they forecast now, which equals the end of the road for a loss making AIM company with $20m secured debt.