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Have you got a link to their comments? Bought a starter at 200p as their buyback becomes massively accretive at these levels.

Per my buyback tracker they've used ~£27.3m of the £150m buyback announced back in September. If shares were to stay at £2 then the remaining £123m would repurchase 61.5m shares and leave ~343m shares in issue, giving a market cap of £687m, or less than 4x EBITDA.

From there, further buybacks would see the market cap shrink to silly levels. Likewise, should the share price fall sub £2 then share capital quickly vanishes.

This is a very interesting value experiment now & the UK market in a microcosm.

Big EPS beat vs expectations (19p vs 17.4p) and adj. pre tax profit of £35m well ahead of Shores recent 'prediction' of £33.4m. On the forward looking front, YTD TTV at +16% is better than the +14% reported this time last year. Commentary all positive and I expect a large bounce today...

It's an underwhelming FS in my opinion. The obvious problem is the average grade of 2.52g/t isn't great for such a deep mine, and it's far lower than the South East Crescent PFS numbers posted back in October 2021 (3.72g/t, which produced ~160koz PA over 9 years). Either throughput needs to be substantially higher or they need to find higher grade material, otherwise any glitch in production will send AISC rocketing. I suspect they will continue to focus more heavily on Telfer and WDD.

Https://pe-insights.com/loveholidays-1bn-ipo-could-give-london-market-a-much-needed-lift/

Nothing on this mooted IPO since early September, but it would provide a direct read across on valuation. A £1b IPO would value it at ~12x LTM EBITDA, OTB should report EBITDA of ~£42m next week, which at a £270m market cap would put it on ~6.5x EBITDA.

With a variance like that, I also wonder whether they would may tempted to bid for OTB whilst it's this cheap?

The OTB website list of significant shareholders hasn't been updated since October 2024.

Per the latest filings, I have;

Morgan Stanley 8,805,783 - 19th November

Schroders 14,670,991 - 13th November

Artemis 10,391,871 - 2nd September

Fidelity 14,075,006 - 8th July

Liontrust 7,931,219 - 22nd May

Norges Bank 4,800,000 - 3rd May

Lombard Odier 7,966,079 - 19th December

Simon Cooper 9,521,226 - 12th December

Total ~77.9m shares (my total yesterday included Hawksford + Simon Cooper and they are the same holding), so 53.8% of the company held by the top 8 shareholders.

Another good sign with directors buying ~£150k of stock at 279p. In my opinion this will be trading at >350p by the end of January, unless we have a market selloff.

Not quite £1.50 in old money yet. At £1.85 and 144.9m shares in issue the cap is £268m / 167m shares this time last year = £1.60. But yes it's a bit silly given the market was paying over £3 only 4 months ago. They missed the bottom end of their B2C guidance by £0.9m / ~3%, so far that's lopped off around £130m from their valuation...

The top 9 shareholders hold around 85m shares, of these Schroders, Artemis & Morgan Stanley have been adding in recent weeks, with no declared reductions. Per Simply Wall Street data which may be out of date, but gives an idea, sub 3% institutional investors hold ~19% of stock, so another ~30m or so shares. That leaves only 30m to play with, and retail must have a few given it's been listed for nearly 10 years.

Another buyback could start to make things squeezy, as you can't imagine Schroders loaning out their 10% to held short sellers out...

Jack, it's FY26 that was cut nearly over 5%

"For the year which ends on September 30, 2026, Shore now expects On the Beach to achieve adjusted pretax profit of GBP41.7 million, down from a prior forecast of GBP44.5 million"

Personally I think brokers should be banned from issuing updates like this in the month before results. In other markets there is a 'quiet period', presumably to ensure that trading is orderly. If they want to downgrade it should be saved for after results in a couple of weeks.

But hey, it's the UK market and its a complete sh*t show & gets worse every year...

Surprised this hasn't been shared on here;

"On the Beach Group PLC - Manchester, England-based online holidays retailer - Shore Capital Markets lowers to 'hold' (buy) - fair value 230 pence (330p).

Shore sees a risk of increased costs as On the Beach pursues "new and adjacent markets", putting pressure on profit. "With further moves into new offerings, including the announcement of cruises this month, we reduce our near- and medium-term profit assumptions," Shore explains.

The broker believes an expansion into other markets could even mean the firm needs to change its name. "One of the areas we believe could need updating is the company name... or introduce sub brands. Whilst suiting the package beach holiday market, it could start to become confusing for consumers in relation to cities and cruise holidays," Shore adds.

For the year which ends on September 30, 2026, Shore now expects On the Beach to achieve adjusted pretax profit of GBP41.7 million, down from a prior forecast of GBP44.5 million. On the Beach is yet to report results for financial 2025, but in a trading statement in September said it forecast adjusted pretax profit between GBP34.5 million and GBP35.5 million. Shore's forecast stands at GBP33.4 million. "Along with our downgrades and cautious stance on the growth strategy, we also note an ongoing difficult trading backdrop. Whilst travel is typically a more robust area, consumer discretionary spending remains weak," Shore says, also noting competitive market dynamics and competition from easyJet PLC's Holidays offering and AIM-listed Jet2 PLC as competitors in the short-haul market.

Current stock price: 195.40p, down 5.2% in London on Tuesday morning"

I must add that the timing of the downgrade on the last day of the buyback feels highly suspect, as does downgrading 100p due to nothing in particular. Why wouldn't they wait for the final results in a couple of weeks? Hmmmmm.

Market cap now £277m on ~145m shares, this time last year there were 167m shares so if we adjust the share price to account for the buyback & provide a comparable number to 12 months ago, OTB is effectively back at ~£1.65 - firmly within the 2024 trading range.

Notable that cumulative disclosed shorts at 2.6% are now the highest they have been since IPO, I think this is primarily driven by the buyback creating liquidity that wouldn't have ordinarily existed.

Do we think they'll announce a further buyback with the finals?

Yeah, such a terrible stock - only guided ahead of expectations within 6 weeks of IPO.

I'd been watching and couldn't understand why IPO buyers put £106m in at £2.71 but then didn't want to support the business on the open market.

Based on this mornings numbers it's now trading at ~8x EBITDA which looks far too cheap vs it's ~26% top line growth rate & 25% EBITDA margins. They also have no debt post IPO so most that should fall through to the bottom line.

Whilst not directly comparable, Applied Nutrition which IPO'd last November is trading at ~12x EBITDA and only growing at 14%. Simply matching that valuation would see shares at £3.50.

Looks a good bet to me & based on this mornings tone, I would be surprised if they don't upgrade again post Christmas.

I follow this like a hawk as I think it's the best company on AIM bar none. The book has been incredibly well bid over the last month or two, in downturns like today during 2024, CNC fell 5-10% in a flash. I suspect II buyers have discovered that due to it's illiquidity the only way to accumulate stock is by sitting on the bid and hoping for down days where retail sells. CNC are in a very strong position now, I'd love to see them execute some material M&A and grow to the next level...

It was around this time last year that they released the video where Myles discussed his 'several billion pounds' market cap aim...

I did say on the morning of the TU that the buyback would provide ammunition for the shorts to sell into. Per my tracker they have now bought back ~10.33m shares for consideration of ~£22.4m. So at this rate they have enough headroom for another 4x300k days and that'll be that. Once done, will shorts continue selling to push shares under £2?

I do question the strategy of some of these buyback schemes. Why the rush? I can't imagine they will be authorising a further tranche as soon as the full year results, but I could be wrong.

Yep, the key point is that foreign investors cannot buy via market makers on a share like PAT. It's all got to be done via the periodic daily auction process, which is why we see so many UT's here. If that demand is allowed to buy in the open market then it frees things up considerably. Essentially, the UK market makers lose control of their stock, which is never a bad thing.

A good balance sheet? ~£128 net debt at HY25 and tangible equity of ~£5m is anything but strong. That literally means if you liquidated the company tomorrow, the physical asset base wouldn’t cover its borrowings and other obligations. By textbook definition, that’s a thin or weak balance sheet.

Adjust for the fact that fleet CAPEX ate up all PBT in in H125 and you can see why it's being shorted IMO. If we are heading for a 2-3 year cyclical low in oil prices which causes AT. revenues to decline then they will struggle to reduce debt, have limited room for M&A and be seen as a business in decline.

It's wait and see - the fact 8 hedge funds are short over 0.5% tells it's own story.

An illiquid new listing is always going to struggle when the market pulls back right after IPO. It also doesn't help that it's on the main market so one has to stump up 0.5% stamp duty for the privilege of paying a 2.5% spread! Ultimately, it's only 10p below the low end of the initial pricing range, so no reall margin of safety yet. Sub 200p and I might be tempted. APN has done well since last November's IPO, but it had to fall about 30% from 140p listing price before it found support.

Yep, 250p was an easy trade or attractive long term entry point. What confuses me here is who the sellers are and how the price mechanics work; TRN repurchased ~£19m of stock between the September 11th trading update & yesterday. In that time shares fell from 303p on the 12/13th September down to £2.50, in a period when the FTSE250 has been flat to up.

There are no disclosed shorts over 0.5%, although there could be many under that level. But why would you open / increase a short when a company is trading at 6-7x EV/EBITDA and buying back £150m of stock / 15% of their market cap?

If it's index outflows then the buyback surely covers them, so what causes a share price to fall 15% in the face of relentless buybacks?

Based on the previous several BTC cycles, an 80% top of bull to bottom of bear is typical. That would be around $30k BTC & at that price SWC would have a fully diluted NAV of ~15p. So sure, dream of rainbows and $200k (£1.05 NAV), but be aware that IF there is a serious BTC pullback these treasury companies will get slaughtered...

@deck it all depends on the price of the buys vs sells. What's been nice to see over the last few days is that sellers have been steadily increasing their ask price and buyers have been happy to raise their bids and buy the stock. I've watched the book on a regular basis & often during periods of sideways action there are often a lot of bids but they are set below the spread, so there is no upward pressure on the price.

The beauty of the strong international demand is that it limits market maker involvement - they tried a little game at 11am today when the warrant conversion RNS was released, but demand remained strong and the price didn't move down, so there were no sellers. Then a late buying spree saw us finish at the high of the day.

I expect some resistance at 25p, but if we sail through that then there is nothing obvious until the old all time high at around 40p...

Glorious to watch the re-rating here, all the research & conviction that I had back in late 2023 is being vindicated. International demand via the L2 order book auctions is stronger than ever, which tallies with Mark referring to US buying from Europeans over the last few months. Over half a million bought / sold via the UT auctions today alone, and there were over 1m shares on the buy side order book in the closing auction. Very interesting to see how far we can go over the coming weeks / months. GLAH.