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That's the largest upgrade I've seen in a long while;

Guidance for GY27 had net operating income was £385.5m https://www.cmcmarkets.com/group/investors/analysts-coverage

They've come in at £460-480m and if we plug in estimated variable expenses at 11% of fixed costs (FY26 was 9%, FY25 8%, so this looks sensibly prudent) then I get operating income of ~£159m & an operating margin of just under ~34%, up 800bps vs this year.

At a similar tax rate to FY26 this would produce EPS of over 40p, vs the 29.4p plugged by analysts.

So the long and short of it is that last night CMCX was on a forward PE of 12.5x and today and 435p / 40p that has fallen to just under 10x

Short term I think this should have momentum to get over 500p, as de-rating the forward multiple on an upgrade like that makes little sense to me... Let's see.

When just under half the subjective NAV is accounted for by one company, these type of entities should always trade at a material discount to NAV as far as I'm concerned.

I've no idea why it was bid up to a 50% premium but it kinda sums up the illogical state of the current market.

Technically a retest of 160p looks likely, especially if we get a decent pullback in US equities.

It certainly seems logical that the volatility of the last few months will have made it more likely that existing borrowers look to switch to a different lender in order to find a better rate. It also makes it more likely that those remortgaging opt for another 2 year fix rather than a longer dated product, strengthening the medium term outlook. This is backed up by the 19% increase in mortgage applications in the ~4 month period to 27th April. None of the above justifies a multiple of 10x this years forecast earnings IMO.

Plenty of buying this morning which pushed shares to 532p but appears to need something more concrete to push on through 540p. As has been seen plenty of times before with MAB1, when it moves it really can go.

Yep, Waystar have been hammered over the past week & they are the closest US software peer & now down 42% YTD. WAY is valued at about 11.5x PE and growing 15% PA, CRW is still on ~15x with growth in the 6-10% region. It's silly but at present holding software / medtech companies is a hiding to nothing.

Yes the drop to £18.25 low looks a bit silly, sub £20 has been snapped up so far. Assuming the rest of the portfolio can hold a 1x NAV, the lows today valued the Action stake at ~9x EBITDA, so a near 50% discount on managements multiple. FWIW I think 18.5x is too aggressive for the LFL numbers, but 9x is overdone given the continued inorganic expansion. If shares close over £20.72 (opening price), it'll be a nice daily hammer and in stark contrast to previous sell offs.

Edmate, out of curiosity, where do you think the cash has gone? Do you think it's disappeared? A clue; look at more than 1 line item of the balance sheet...

Not an issue if you have a decent broker - although I did notice a large difference in liquidity been HL & II. Good relative strength here for most of the day before the US based hedgies woke up and forced it back down late on.

Technically it's been kept under pressure since falling below the 8DMA on ex-dividend date 15 trading days ago. It's tested breaking above this level the last 5 trading days but despite solid off book (retail) buying, AT selling has remained in control.

A further reassuring trading update at next weeks AGM would be welcome.

What do others think of their 2029 targets? How achievable is doubling 2024 revenue to reach ~£530m? And then improving adjusted PBT margin to 15% to reach ~£80m in adjusted PBT?

If they hit those targets then EPS would be over 100p (£60m PAT / 57m shares) & cash conversion over 100% would put them on a 20% FCF yield vs the current share price.

To my knowledge there isn't a single stock on the LSE trading at those forward multiples, nevermind one that pays a >5% annual dividend yield.

FCA overhang cleared, AIM IHT overhang cleared, mortgage applications 19% up for the first 4 months of the year...

Next catalysts are the July trading update then the interims in September.

A very, very unusual setup.

The multiple here is laughable at present, valued at 8.5x FY27 forecast earnings whilst forecast to grow EPS at 19%. Historically over its 12 years as a listed entity it's been valued at an average of 21x. Even getting to a PEG of 1x would see shares re-rate to ~1200p.

This is a proper business which has been sold down to silly levels due to;

1. The FCA overhang which cleared in Feb

2. The main market move that created a forced liquidation event for ~10% of the shareholder base

3. Worries around the UK housing market that overlook how the MAB business model works.

Over the next 3 years cumulative dividends are forecast to be ~87p, so you've got a 16% yield and a forward PEG of 0.45x

Fairly unprecedented for a practically debt free business that has targets of doubling FY24 revenue by 2029 at an increased PBT margin.

This is what Chatgpt said when I asked about contract size;

"Historically, hVIVO plc has:

Run smaller HCTs (~100–200 participants) typically worth £5m–£15m

Reported its largest prior contracts in the ~£15m–£25m range (inferred from past disclosures and revenue scale)

This new trial is explicitly stated as:

“hVIVO's largest HCT to date”

So it must exceed that upper bound.

Several features push this into top-tier contract size:

~500 participants → very large for an HCT (typical = 50–200)

Phase III pivotal → highest regulatory importance (pricing premium)

First-in-world model (pertussis HCT) → bespoke development + assay work

Multi-year delivery (2026–2027 revenue)

Includes recruitment (FluCamp), quarantine, dosing, microbiology assays"

A rough industry model for HCTs:

Per participant economics (all-in):

👉 £30k – £70k per subject (includes screening, quarantine stay, dosing, monitoring, lab work)

For 500 participants:

Low case: 500 × £30k = £15m

High case: 500 × £70k = £35m

Now add:

Custom challenge model development

Advanced bacterial assays (Canary Wharf lab)

Regulatory-grade Phase III data requirements

👉 These typically add a premium uplift of ~20–40%

🎯 Estimated contract value

Putting it together:

👉 Likely range: £20m – £40m

👉 Most probable midpoint: ~£25m – £35m"

Unless you are following the company closely this was a typical reaction for a contract win with no number. Obviously once you start digging a little bit & listen to the interviews it becomes evident that this is a £20-40m deal. Market makers happy to take sell the news stock & will then sell it back to buyers at a higher price over the next few days IMO.

@SatansBolete, some fools - took PBT from £11.5m at the 2014 IPO to £87.7m 11 years later.

Cumulative PBT of £623.8m in those 12 years (per sharepad). Cumulative PBT in the last 5 years of £386.9m. I fancy quite a few PE outfits would love that type of cash flow!

So Evans has cashed out 39m warrants and SWC are now in the hole for nearly £9m. Can't say I've ever seen debt financing used for such a self serving purpose.

Couldn't agree more @Koolhead. It was only 3 years ago that I discovered Alpha Group and was genuinely excited by the potential it held. Similarly to Gamma it was valued on an attractive FCF yield of well over 10%, yet nobody could ever bid it up. Tracking the quarterly holdings changes informed me that this was due to institutional holders players musical chairs; whenever a couple added they were buying off sellers who had held for a few years. They were the highest quality mid cap with an amazing ROIC, and yet for the last 12 months of their listing they traded at 10-12x PE. The founder threw in the towel and then along came a US bidder that took them over at a near 100% premium. Why were the II sellers playing musical chairs? Why not just buy and hold?! If I'd been managing a large fund id have taken 10-15% of the share capital and let the company develop.

Gamma is even worse. It was a huge success story from IPO in 2014 until late 2021. It staged a recovery in 2024 but ever since announcing a main market move it's been crushed from £17 in October 2024 to £7. Announcing takeover discussions at £7.32, in the middle of market chaos and in the midst of £125m shareholder return program is scandalous. I honestly think £15 should be the minimum achieved here when you look at the FCF multiple and recurring revenue.

The UK market is dead though, how can a company with no debt and a simple business model trade on a PE of 7? It's just stupid.

As I said briefly yesterday, I was really impressed by the IMC presentation.

- Company confirmed that AIM IHT funds exiting ahead of the move to main market are an overhang of ~8-10% of share capital, I suspect that's a bit lower now after around 3m volume so far this week. Founder said that they couldn't wait for the next month or so to be over, suggesting it should be done in April...

- Founder confirmed that the FCA news was huge for them & that they were very disappointed with the share price since then, given the drop in August 2024 when the investigation was announced (£8.20 to £5.40...)

- Gave a detailed insight into how they are thinking about AI, all of which made sense to me, well worth listening to.

Bottom line is, if they get anywhere near their 2029 goal of ~£80m adjusted PBT then the current market cap will be a distant memory.

Yesterday showed how fast this can move when it's free to go, the IHT overhang + inflation worries have provided a really double whammy but at some point it'll enter calmer waters again.

Certainly one of the more interesting opportunities on the market IMO.

Cavendish have upgraded FY26 EPS forecasts to 53.2p based on £24m PBT, putting it on a forward PE of under 7x.

"However, Taking into account the strong trading for the first five months of the year, and the Board's updated expectations on the outlook for the gold price, the Group now expects its profit before tax for FY26 to be at least £24m* and, if the favourable gold price and trading conditions continue, potentially up to £28m."

With only 32m shares in issue, £28m PBT = 65p, which would get the PE down to 5.6!

And it's not just gold outperforming either;

"Jewellery retail revenue is approximately 25% ahead year on year.

Pawnbroking lending was at record levels in February 2026, and positive momentum has continued into March. The loan book is now approximately £13.5m, an increase of 18% on the September year end position of £11.4m."

There has been profit taking at an institutional level, but if this price doesn't increase I'd like to see an aggressive buyback to take out excess demand (rather than a special dividend).

This will surely re-rate from here, valued at just over 8x forward earnings & generated £20m FCF in the second half after spending £16m on CAPEX.

The Middle East accounted for ~13% of 2025 operating profit, so not nothing but also won't change the medium term outlook materially.

Looks like a strong buy to me.

Terrific IMC presentation ongoing - will post comments later on.

Ha, I was optimistic at 5m warrants, so they bought back a grand total of 3m... I wonder what this exercise has cost them? Why do it if there isn't clear selling pressure or demand to exercise? Bizarre & the overhang of ~27m warrants remains...

If I held 2.5p warrants there isn't a chance I'd be selling them at 20.6p, which is equivalent to a BTC price of ~$40-45k at a 1.34 FX rate. So whilst it may be an attempt at removing the overhang, I'm not sure why anyone would take a 10p a share loss vs current market price or ~40p to the recent high in mid Jan?

IMO if they want the shares then they should be paying market price... I predict they'll get around 5m shares, so ~15%