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I note Amati launched a new ‘strategic innovation’ fund on 23rd May which could explain the strategy change in the incumbent smaller companies fund; https://www.amatiglobal.com/fund/tb-amati-strategic-innovation-fund/overview
“investing in companies that create value from innovative products, services and business models that address key challenges facing businesses, consumers and societies, where the impact of such innovation is not fully priced in by the market”
Kidney disease is certainly a key challenge facing society & now would be a logical time for a new fund to invest…
I wonder if they fully existed the position in the smaller companies fund by transferring the shares to the new fund? It would make a lot of sense (and potentially explain the lack of any TR1 to go below 3%?
Yep! The ‘winning in the metaverse’ part nails it…
“In fact, many people have already interacted with the metaverse by playing games like Fortnite and Roblox.These games operate virtual 3D worlds where millions of people worldwide gather to play, socialize, buy virtual items, attend special events and participate in a digital economy—all within the game. Although these two games are not decentralized, they offer a clear path toward Web3 metaverses.”
“While these lessons from gaming can help companies advance their metaverse strategy, it’s important to note that challenges still exist around governance and data and privacy issues. The future governance of a decentralized metaverse centers on decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO), where users act as shareholders with voting rights depending on ownership levels. Companies will need to determine rules and assess risk considerations when their brands enter these virtual spaces.There’s a real need for companies to truly understand the difference between centralized and decentralized models not only
from an infrastructure perspective, but also from
a governance perspective.”
I think they’ve made an error if they’ve disposed of the entire stake at current prices. There were significant block trades at the end of May priced at £1.47 - £1.55 which match up though.
They bought in the IPO at £1.20 so was the thinking to simply book a profit and move on? A 25% gain over 3.5 years looks good to the average Joe but their position was up over 1000% the peak last year & Jourdan said on YouTube that they were still very bullish!
“What companies in the sector is Paul most excited about?
09:54 Polarean Imaging (POLX)
13:12 Renalytix (RENX)”
Share price at the time of that interview was £11…
Just been looking into the Amati exit as it really surprises me after such a large decline… however here’s their market commentary in their report to 31/01/2022;
“Beyond exiting companies with earnings risk, our disposal strategy in the period has been to reduce the portfolio’s exposure to devaluation risk from higher rated stocks battling the discounting caused by rising interest rates. Examples included MaxCyte and Softcat as detailed earlier; gene and cell therapy specialist, Oxford BioMedica; language, content and IP services provider, RWS; private equity incubator IP Group; animal genetics company Genus; scientific and industrial research product provider, Oxford Instruments; and veterinary pharmaceuticals specialist, Dechra. For most of these companies, their share prices have continued to underperform following our exit.”
So it appears to be a strategic decision & indeed they held onto RENX far longer than most highly rated stocks, suggesting major reluctance to sell?
Excellent to get 100% confirmation. ENGAGE is closed source proprietary software which enables the web3 transition without being built on web3 (blockchain open source). The strategic positioning is genius & explains why we have been able to attract clients of the calibre of KPMG. A professional metaverse has to be closed source, secure and private, anything else simply won't cut the mustard.
It's one of the most deceptive RNS's I've ever read so I wouldn't worry about getting suckered in... I still don't know how they are allowed to agree a $60m loan on 31st March and not release an RNS straight away? It's clearly very material information.
P1 - the loan;
"On 31 March 2022, we raised a $60 million credit facility with a syndicate of banks. Under the facility we may borrow against our US inventory. Borrowings bear interest between Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) +325bps and +375bps. On completion of the facility, the Group drew, and continues to draw, $21 million consistent with the facility cash deposit covenant."
P2 - the covenant;
"The ABL is subject to three covenants: a current ratio test, minimum cash held at a bank within the syndicate, and a minimum quarterly Repeat Customer Contribution profit test. The Repeat Customer Contribution profit covenant is with reference to an absolute level, rather than a ratio. Consequently, it is most sensitive to macroeconomic factors and, under a downside scenario, there is a risk that the Company could breach this covenant, with headroom versus the covenant most limited in Q1, Q2 and Q4 of FY23."
P3 - risk of breach due to below forecast trading
"Management has assessed covenant compliance over the next 12 months based on a detailed forecast model that projects an income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement based on key drivers of the business including, inter alia, assumptions on New Customers, customer retention/attrition by tenure, order frequency, average order value, gross margin and fulfilment costs per order. Sensitivity analysis was also performed on this base case forecast. Under the base case, the forecast model projects that all covenants will be met over the next 12 months. A downside scenario resulting in a 7.5% to 20% sensitivity against the base case forecast for Repeat Customer sales could result in a breach of this covenant. When taking into account actual trading results to date which are below forecast, a downside scenario of 3.7% against forecast would result in a breach of this covenant at June 2022 and as a result of the sensitivity in the downside scenario, management have identified a material uncertainty on meeting this covenant."
Why this wasn't disclosed in the outlook statement is completely beyond me. It's why it opened at £2.76 and not substantially lower. Absolutely shocking.
Simply incredible that they could agree a $60m loan on March 31st (and apparently not notify the market at the time, unless I'm blind) and then be on the brink of breaching it's terms less than 3 months later... almost unheard of.
That's a very glass half empty view WG213...
Funnily enough I just checked the METAVERSE RNS released on 22/06/2021 that announced the OASIS (Link) launch this year and it says;
"VRE is focused on becoming a leading global provider of virtual communications solutions through ENGAGE and its three solutions: Virtual Campus, Virtual Office, and Virtual Events. ENGAGE recently announced it had reached the milestone of 100 customers in just two years. ENGAGE Oasis will be offered as an additional service to clients when it is released next year. ENAGE clients include Abbott Laboratories, Facebook, KPMG, MongoDB, and the US State Department."
So we can be 99.99% sure yesterday's KPMG launch is using ENGAGE.
Re. revenues, it's not a trading update so why would they discuss financial performance? Last year's TU was on 28th July and was in line - if things weren't in line at present then they would have to update the market IMO.
So no there isn't only one positive, it's all positive - launch partners confirmed, more new customers, launch date a few weeks away & we know that major global corporates are already using ENGAGE. Further, the ambition is enormous considering we are currently a £36m market cap...
"With ENGAGE Link, we are building a completely distributive economic environment for forward-thinking enterprises and individuals to build the future of work, commerce and communications."
Evening oldtramp, top research again! I agree that it’s almost certainly ENGAGE. From the fonts used, hairstyles & whiteboard with post it notes, there are too many similarities for it not to be.
I also note that David Whelan was the second ‘expert’ in this KPMG white paper on extended reality;
It’s hugely exciting that we appear to have got a client like KPMG fully on board, you’re talking 236,000 employees worldwide, 40,000 in the US alone. Huge numbers.
I suspect stealth mode will continue for a while longer but sooner or later the share price is going to take off.
Change in holdings since his last notification on 19th May is 5,897,136 - suspect they were sold in the closing uncrossing auction on Friday evening that knocked the price back to 36p...
They gave justification for not raising yet in the RNS;
"In addition to ongoing commercial execution, two important areas of focus for the board in 2022 are funding and company leadership. As is clear from our announcement on 31 March 2022, the Company will require further financing before the anticipated breakeven in 2024. The Board decided not to initiate a fundraise immediately following that announcement, as it wanted to provide more evidence regarding the path to profitability."
It's safe to say that the weather is likely to cause you more problems when you are trying to expand a mine without a PFS! I take it that those posting here don't think that's an issue, however anyone with even an ounce of mining knowledge will be staying well away.
As a reminder, this is from the 'competent persons report' section of the admission doc (P72);
"The Strategic Plan assumes significant increases in production from 2022 with the proposed peak production of 81,000 tpa flake graphite achieved within 2024. Commissioning further technical assessments including completion of multi-disciplinary pre-feasibility studies (‘‘PFS’’) to demonstrate the technical feasibility and economic viability of the expansion programmes in Sahamamy and Vatomina is crucial."
I think the metaversities roll out was a long time in the making, the fact ENGAGE already had a programme up and running at Stanford must have played a major part, a positive reference from Oxford couldn't have hurt either!
All being well you could imagine the initial 10 universities becoming 50 in a couple of years time and 200 a few years after that (there are 4000+ uni's and colleges in the US so this wouldn't be hard to achieve), the network effect may mean it happens faster than this. Add in major corporates building their own metaworlds and you have quite the potential combo as you say...
BTW, have you read the fincapp research note released on 8th March? It was notable for the price target they came to (80p) but also for the fact that this came from a blend of different scenarios. The most bullish of these (given a 5% chance) had revenues at €650m by 2027 with an equity value at £2.7b, which would equate to over £9 a share based on current issued capital... the synopsis was the following;
"ENGAGE capitalises on network effects, is a leader in the strong growth in enterprise extended reality, and benefits from revenue streams that are substantially broader than communications."
First time I'd ever seen near 100x potential disclosed in a research note.
Boom! The EXR business development team are doing a great job, HSBC, LSEG and the NHS using ENGAGE and posting on Linkedin in the last week alone, no better marketing tool than positive word of mouth :)
"I really think the wise investor should decide what they're willing to invest now then go away and come back in October or when there's news."
@NIGWITTY, why not follow your own advice and stay away from this board until October if it annoys you so much?
I suspect you used to own a large amount of shares here but sold the vast majority at a much lower level and are now bitter about how you'll miss out on in the event of a $500m+ win for NANO. It's so obvious when reading your posts, you don't hate the company but you'd hate it to do really well...