Member Info for ShearClass

It's actually trading at a @9% premium to the underlying conversion value, so buybacks would destroy value. With SSIT at £1.82, SSIC is worth 72p by my caluculations, based on the 100p vs 251p NAV ratio. The danger here is fixating on the 100p NAV, as that will get diluted in the conversion to SSIT shares. I suspect that most retail buyers who paid 100p didn't understand the structure.

How does that logic make sense?

A 70p forecast dividend on a 930p share price is a lot more attractive than last years 94p dividend paid on a share price of 2000p? That's a ~60% increase. Even comparing it to the 1180p it closed at on the day of the infamous capital allocation change, it was ~6%

The market reaction has been like they have cancelled the dividend entirely, instead of re-basing it to 50% of PAT...

It's down because it's effectively a derivative of SSIT & influenced by the NAV ratio between the two share classes + whether SSIT trades at a discount or premium to NAV. With SSIT at 194.6p, I have SSIC's market value upon conversion to SSIT shares as ~77.5p

As a reminder;

"On 11 September 2024, the Group announced a £50m share buyback which reflects the strong ongoing cash flow, the receipt of the pension surplus cash return as well as the strength of our balance sheet. As at 15 April 2025, the Group had purchased 2.2m shares for cancellation for total consideration of £27m."

18 months later they need to do a placing... honestly I'm convinced some of these companies are being run into the ground on purpose.

Oh and FYI, with SSIT at 212p vs a 251p NAV, per my calcs, SSIC shares are worth 84.4p if they converted today at a NAV of 100p. So their shares now trades at a premium of 11% to a pile of cash with no home...

Probably sensible given that it appears you didn't understand how the conversion actually worked & the risks of being long / short in that manner.

If SSIT trades at a discount to NAV but keeps increasing it's NAV then SSIC will decline in value. Given the huge rise in ICEYE valuation, I'd say this is now quite likely to happen.

If SSIC invests in anything in the period immediately after the SpaceX IPO & SpaceX struggles to stay above it's IPO price over the next 18 months then I struggle to see large NAV increases being feasible. It's very similar to the dynamic that SSIT had in 2021.

I think both equities are difficult to call, really SSIT need ICEYE to IPO later this year so their NAV isn't based on private VC rounds

Forensic, what are you playing at persistently pushing a narrative of shorting SSIT, long SSIC?

SSIC has obvious issues, today's ICEYE uplift evidences them clearly. They will be paying inflated valuations instead of benefiting from inflated valuations. I'd actually think shorting SSIC would make more sense as in 12 months time if Space mania has subsided their NAV could come under serious pressure (if / when they actually commit capital)

Also funny that someone blatantly discovered the ICEYE raise yesterday morning, hence the rapid spike from 170-187p, almost jumped in but thought better of it...

Sure, the problem with that is that buybacks are often used to disguise organic declines in EPS so that management can claim they are still trading in line with 'expectations'.

It's very rare for a UK listed plc to execute a genuinely opportunistic, one off buyback when shares are cheap. SCT did a brilliant one recently, but efforts by OTB, GAMA etc have been destructive. If they are done for the wrong reasons then the buyback creates ideal short selling liquidity. I suspect that will be the case with TEP given the recent sell down.

Some good colour on recent developments from someone on Twitter;

"Vitalware acquisition came at 4x sales....thats is 2x+ the multiple craneware ($CRW.L) trades at today. Craneware is unquestioned the dominate player in the space and theres has been a string of good news on there other business *340B* as key senators who apposed the program, lost primary elections. And the admin reintroduced their rebate voucher program in the past week. Stock trades at a hefty discount from ai fears to the Bain acquisition price last year the company turned down as too low (insiders own a very significant piece of the business)

If you can invest in sub $1B companies and a mandate ex US, I would encourage you to kick the tires. Owner, operators and a key solution inside over 40% of US hospitals"

That's the largest upgrade I've seen in a long while;

Guidance for GY27 had net operating income was £385.5m https://www.cmcmarkets.com/group/investors/analysts-coverage

They've come in at £460-480m and if we plug in estimated variable expenses at 11% of fixed costs (FY26 was 9%, FY25 8%, so this looks sensibly prudent) then I get operating income of ~£159m & an operating margin of just under ~34%, up 800bps vs this year.

At a similar tax rate to FY26 this would produce EPS of over 40p, vs the 29.4p plugged by analysts.

So the long and short of it is that last night CMCX was on a forward PE of 12.5x and today and 435p / 40p that has fallen to just under 10x

Short term I think this should have momentum to get over 500p, as de-rating the forward multiple on an upgrade like that makes little sense to me... Let's see.

When just under half the subjective NAV is accounted for by one company, these type of entities should always trade at a material discount to NAV as far as I'm concerned.

I've no idea why it was bid up to a 50% premium but it kinda sums up the illogical state of the current market.

Technically a retest of 160p looks likely, especially if we get a decent pullback in US equities.

It certainly seems logical that the volatility of the last few months will have made it more likely that existing borrowers look to switch to a different lender in order to find a better rate. It also makes it more likely that those remortgaging opt for another 2 year fix rather than a longer dated product, strengthening the medium term outlook. This is backed up by the 19% increase in mortgage applications in the ~4 month period to 27th April. None of the above justifies a multiple of 10x this years forecast earnings IMO.

Plenty of buying this morning which pushed shares to 532p but appears to need something more concrete to push on through 540p. As has been seen plenty of times before with MAB1, when it moves it really can go.

Yep, Waystar have been hammered over the past week & they are the closest US software peer & now down 42% YTD. WAY is valued at about 11.5x PE and growing 15% PA, CRW is still on ~15x with growth in the 6-10% region. It's silly but at present holding software / medtech companies is a hiding to nothing.

Yes the drop to £18.25 low looks a bit silly, sub £20 has been snapped up so far. Assuming the rest of the portfolio can hold a 1x NAV, the lows today valued the Action stake at ~9x EBITDA, so a near 50% discount on managements multiple. FWIW I think 18.5x is too aggressive for the LFL numbers, but 9x is overdone given the continued inorganic expansion. If shares close over £20.72 (opening price), it'll be a nice daily hammer and in stark contrast to previous sell offs.

Edmate, out of curiosity, where do you think the cash has gone? Do you think it's disappeared? A clue; look at more than 1 line item of the balance sheet...

Not an issue if you have a decent broker - although I did notice a large difference in liquidity been HL & II. Good relative strength here for most of the day before the US based hedgies woke up and forced it back down late on.

Technically it's been kept under pressure since falling below the 8DMA on ex-dividend date 15 trading days ago. It's tested breaking above this level the last 5 trading days but despite solid off book (retail) buying, AT selling has remained in control.

A further reassuring trading update at next weeks AGM would be welcome.

What do others think of their 2029 targets? How achievable is doubling 2024 revenue to reach ~£530m? And then improving adjusted PBT margin to 15% to reach ~£80m in adjusted PBT?

If they hit those targets then EPS would be over 100p (£60m PAT / 57m shares) & cash conversion over 100% would put them on a 20% FCF yield vs the current share price.

To my knowledge there isn't a single stock on the LSE trading at those forward multiples, nevermind one that pays a >5% annual dividend yield.

FCA overhang cleared, AIM IHT overhang cleared, mortgage applications 19% up for the first 4 months of the year...

Next catalysts are the July trading update then the interims in September.

A very, very unusual setup.

The multiple here is laughable at present, valued at 8.5x FY27 forecast earnings whilst forecast to grow EPS at 19%. Historically over its 12 years as a listed entity it's been valued at an average of 21x. Even getting to a PEG of 1x would see shares re-rate to ~1200p.

This is a proper business which has been sold down to silly levels due to;

1. The FCA overhang which cleared in Feb

2. The main market move that created a forced liquidation event for ~10% of the shareholder base

3. Worries around the UK housing market that overlook how the MAB business model works.

Over the next 3 years cumulative dividends are forecast to be ~87p, so you've got a 16% yield and a forward PEG of 0.45x

Fairly unprecedented for a practically debt free business that has targets of doubling FY24 revenue by 2029 at an increased PBT margin.

This is what Chatgpt said when I asked about contract size;

"Historically, hVIVO plc has:

Run smaller HCTs (~100–200 participants) typically worth £5m–£15m

Reported its largest prior contracts in the ~£15m–£25m range (inferred from past disclosures and revenue scale)

This new trial is explicitly stated as:

“hVIVO's largest HCT to date”

So it must exceed that upper bound.

Several features push this into top-tier contract size:

~500 participants → very large for an HCT (typical = 50–200)

Phase III pivotal → highest regulatory importance (pricing premium)

First-in-world model (pertussis HCT) → bespoke development + assay work

Multi-year delivery (2026–2027 revenue)

Includes recruitment (FluCamp), quarantine, dosing, microbiology assays"

A rough industry model for HCTs:

Per participant economics (all-in):

👉 £30k – £70k per subject (includes screening, quarantine stay, dosing, monitoring, lab work)

For 500 participants:

Low case: 500 × £30k = £15m

High case: 500 × £70k = £35m

Now add:

Custom challenge model development

Advanced bacterial assays (Canary Wharf lab)

Regulatory-grade Phase III data requirements

👉 These typically add a premium uplift of ~20–40%

🎯 Estimated contract value

Putting it together:

👉 Likely range: £20m – £40m

👉 Most probable midpoint: ~£25m – £35m"

Unless you are following the company closely this was a typical reaction for a contract win with no number. Obviously once you start digging a little bit & listen to the interviews it becomes evident that this is a £20-40m deal. Market makers happy to take sell the news stock & will then sell it back to buyers at a higher price over the next few days IMO.