Member Info for ShearClass

Glorious to watch the re-rating here, all the research & conviction that I had back in late 2023 is being vindicated. International demand via the L2 order book auctions is stronger than ever, which tallies with Mark referring to US buying from Europeans over the last few months. Over half a million bought / sold via the UT auctions today alone, and there were over 1m shares on the buy side order book in the closing auction. Very interesting to see how far we can go over the coming weeks / months. GLAH.

@BB_hoppa, as per the TR1 this morning it was an American fund manager... no surprises there!

If I held BTC I'd be increasingly concerned with its relative weakness in what has been an incredibly risk on market. It's threatening to break below the 8 week moving average & 200DMA for the first time since late 2022. This makes sense, as the 4 year cycle is very much part of BTC technicals. If / when that happens we'll see what a real BTCTC winter looks like

Not sure why everyone tries to find logical reasons for a large share price drop for a new entrant to the FTSE250. It looks cut and dry to me. On current year numbers it's trading at between 20-25x EBITDA and a PE of ~56x. When a business is added to the UK's wonderful FTSE250 with valuation metrics like that, it's like a red rag to a bull for short sellers. PINE also has the temerity not to pay a dividend & is aiming to grow quickly, both those factors aren't welcomed by UK funds as there is risk which you aren't being compensated for (sarcasm turned up to the max).

On technicals, there is a large gap on the chart at 318-334p dating back to 29th April when they signed a deal with VW Japan. Given the momentum, if there isn't a catalyst in the near term I think this will get filled.

The biggest error companies leaving AIM make is assuming that being on AIM is the reason for their supposed poor share price performance. If they deliver growth then the share price will look after itself, moving exchange and creating distressed sellers is just an own goal. The same goes for Gamma, Ashtead Tech & GB Group. If you forecast conservatively and beat those expectations you will be awarded a premium PE rating vs industry peers. Funds aren't just going to buy your shares because you switch to a different listing.

Ha. Which funds couldn't buy because it was on AIM? I bet you can't give a single example...

The main market move is a massive own goal as far as I'm concerned. The share price has been in the doldrums for years & was finally recovering with short interest decreasing. Why would you force IHT funds, including Octopus Investments, a 5% shareholder, into selling their shares? And they won't be the only IHT fund with a material holding given this has been on AIM for nearly 20 years. Who wants a £60m block of CVSG? And the buyback is also a waste of capital, all it will do is provide ammo for shorts to sell into.

Gamma, GB Group, Ashtead Tech, Global Data & Johnson Services have either announced or made the move to the main market & trade well below where they did on AIM. The simple fact is you force a large proportion of your share register into distressed selling & there are very few if any buyers waiting on the other side. And for what?

This is a very dangerous share IMO. Nobody has a clue what it's worth & without management putting a lot of money in it feels like a complete gamble.

The net debt of ~£35m + running costs are an issue, but the larger problem is that they have ~50 ongoing cases that they need to continue funding. I.e. PAT's arbitration against India where we know they have funded around half (based on PAT CEO's disclosure a few weeks back). They need to keep funding such cases & without cash coming in from a third fund or case wins then it becomes very difficult.

The meeting in 15 minutes should be very interesting.

A bad miss when you consider passenger metrics are up - what happens if bookings trend flat to down? Suggests competition is eating them (i.e. Jet2) & that the current valuation is very generous. The buyback will also attract short sellers by providing liquidity + negative sentiment.

It's shaken some stock out, perhaps that was the aim? Institutional investors wanting in but didn't want to pay over £2.30? Based on last weeks IMC they'll comfortably beat market expectations, shares are up nearly 100% since this time last year, if the CEO wants to sell then so be it, he has nearly 1m shares in vested / unvested options, so 60k isn't material in the grand scheme of things.

Very good interview indeed & critical given I didn't understand what the RNS implied. The question surely becomes when does the market start to price in the chance of a material award? I.e. >£500m to PAT? If the Indian response is as meek as the reasons given by the Rajasthan gov. for non issue of the license then the odds of such an award must surely shorten. One thing is for sure, PAT has come a long way in the last 2 years.

Another fantastic piece of news on so many levels...

Looks to me like short sellers were caught out by that interview & had to shut down the attempted breakout past 235p resistance. I doubt that they can hold the stock down for much longer though as it's seriously cheap vs historic comparatives. Quite incredibly it has a lower valuation now than it did back in 2017/18 when revenue was less than half of today's level, operating profit less than 30% & it had £15m less cash.

The one thing it could really do with is a director buy though...

This is quite simply a magnificent business, IMO by far the best small cap on AIM. I think it'll be a £10+ share in 5 years time if it's still independent.

Manipulative market makers & horrific liquidity. JBER opening at £24 this morning and offering no bid then walking to down to £22 on minimal volume, the aim clearly appears to be to keep shares under the £26.50 that was offered by Bain.

I hope the founder continues to refuse to sell and actually builds this into a much larger entity, it has the scale required and just needs to get to remain independent + keep investing in growth.

A drop of this scale on AIM means one thing, a massive discounted placing is inbound and the funds are being pulled out of the market today (and over the last week).

The last raise was at 9.5p, will this one be at 25-30p? And how much can they scrape together?

All IMO, but have seen it all before and this project is purely speculative without an MRE & disclosure of specific titanium elements.

It's more like the main market itself has gone into terminal decline and unless a mid cap is smashing it out of the park there is next to no patient capital happy to buy through the cycle with a 5-10 year view. All you seem to get is a multitude of parasitic hedge funds with short mandates followed by an inevitable takeout bid, with retail dragged along for the ride.

At £10 / £925m market cap, GAMA is valued at 6.5x this years forecast EBITDA. It'll be back in a net cash position by year end and has generated ~£460m in operating cash flow since the start of 2021... And yet you just know that British pension funds are busy snapping up shares of Palantir at 300x earnings because it's the 'sexy' thing to do.

- High quality business with a long track record of growth

- Successful geographic diversification into Germany / Europe

- Material FCF, with a yield of ~8% at these levels

- Balanced capital allocation, with a solid dividend, sensibly applied buyback & considered M&A strategy

- Trading at a smidge over 10x PE

It has all the hallmarks of a PE / industry dream, just like Alpha Group did. I'd be very surprised if this is still listed in 12 months and if a bid arrives I expect it'll top £20. All IMO, but I've happily taken a position today and will assess in early 2026 after their final results.

At 686p the yield is now ~5.3%, not 4%. I also note that several analysts have reduced forecasts by ~3-3.5% (per shares magazine) , so they have assumed the full year outturn will now be at the lower end of the previous range. Not sure how that can translate to a 17% fall in a stock that was already trading well below it's 910p May year high...

In my view a lot of this is due to technical factors, with shares gapping down below the 1 year channel & then being sold off hard on low volume as they had lost technical 'support'. Logic would suggest there will be more buyers than sellers at this level, and shares should trend back towards the 770p level in the coming weeks / months.

The fact that this business has two clear growth drivers in Canada & SA makes such a mean reversion seem even more likely to me...

The accounts here are such a mess - made $224m adjusted EBITDA, ~$100m in PAT post exceptionals, yet reduced net debt by just ~$13m... Absolutely token dividend, uncertain LoM's for most of it's assets & clear problems with Mara Rosa. Given historic jurisdictional issues I see no value here at all, was tempted to short pre results but didn't pull the trigger, a shame!