Member Info for ShearClass

Zebbo, there have been several placings at 5.5p in the last 18 months and based on volumes of shares traded most of them have been held long term. This isn't an easy share to flip, it's illiquid and moves fast in both directions.

I think we'll see a decent rise now it's fully funded. Splitting it in half makes no sense, if you do that then flipping is far more likely as the participants would know they could buy back in the next one. Have added some just under 7.5p, I'll be surprised if it stays under 8p for long.

A placing before the news is much preferred to it being shorted after the SOC as everyone knows they need cash. ZEN & EML both raised cash in the last few months and have traded >100% over the placing price.

What I don't like here is that regular shareholders don't get a look in, could they not have done a retail offer for £250k? And yeah, why 7p? It's just greed from the brokers and weakness from the CEO.

On the plus side at least they are raising a large amount and there is a large catalyst around the corner.

It's baffling behaviour. They were issued those shares in 2019 at 10p, why didn't they dispose of them in 2020/21 when shares were above 30p at one stage?! Maybe it's political?

Fantastic news, dozens of high grade intercepts with some stunning ones in there, I.e.

WUC4550022 14.3m at 9.06g/t gold & 8.57g/t copper

Outstanding work so soon after taking ownership.

Having watched proceedings very carefully over the last week or two I'm pretty confident I know what they are.

The game of cat and mouse started of 7th Feb when a buyer bid 8.9p for 1.13m shares and a seller got greedy and asked for 9.2p for 500k shares.

Since then the buyer has been reducing their bid price & lowered the size of their orders on the auction book.

This has caused the share price to fall, spiting the seller.

Today we had a 250k buy on the open at 8.4p and then it went NT to buy more than 100k shares. At 9am someone bought 232k at 8.6p, which was over the ask price at the time. This resulted in a 500k sell being filled by the market makers at 8.5p, which was printed at 9.15. I strongly suspect this was the sell from 7th Feb at 9.2p

Now the ask is at 8.7p, all we need is a bit of volume and we'll be off higher.

Just look at EML, now up >200% and valued at £24m since they got litigation funding, whilst PAT remains below where it traded on the news the LCM funding has been secured...

I posted a few weeks back about the historic Telfer MRE changes, i.e. 14.3 of this report dated March 2014 (when gold was moving between $1200-1350)

https://minedocs.com/17/TechnicalTelfer2013.pdf

"This has resulted in the most marginal ounces being removed and these are reflected in changes to Mineral Resources. The Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources for Telfer as at 31 December 2013 includes a material reduction of approximately 5.2Moz of gold to 13Moz of gold, compared with the 31 December 2012 estimate of 18.2Moz of gold. This

reduction has primarily come from West Dome and Main Dome open pit Mineral Resources as a direct result of the review of long term economic assumptions."

So the MRE was 18.2Moz in at the end of 2012 and since then ~5Moz has been mined (11 years at ~450koz PA)

18.2Moz minus ~5Moz = 13.2Moz remaining, how much of that is economic depends on the price of gold, but there is little to stop GGP being positive with their assumptions in the current environment!

Then you can also add in West Dome Deeps...

"from what I could gather that this is a number that the company and LCM are seriously considering"

This is a curious statement, how would you have any idea what LCM are discussing with Panthera? What is the source for your information?

Given LCM is compensated on a multiple of invested capital or % of settlement proceeds, it's fairly obvious that the claim will be larger than GreenX metals, which was £806m initially and then amended to £737m. The PAT CEO is also on record as saying it'll be larger than GRX. Beyond this, what have you read?

It's obvious that it needs to be a credible number, but unless you know what methodology they intend to use then it's pure guesswork (as Gallmat has been alluding to over the last year).

Good post wilshireman, completely agree that there are many factors which making this a compelling buy right now.

The bottom line for me is that this time last year the market cap was £350m & GGP only owned 30% of Havieron, giving a project value of £1.16b, right now the market cap is £1.08b, so Telfer and everything it entails is in for free, including of course the 500koz of gold...

The last Cannacord note forecast 1p EPS for the 7 month period to 30/06/25, and that was based on an average gold price received of $2621, the average price for the period 4 December to date is now at $2708 and we know Dec production was well ahead of their estimates. The consequence is that if the Telfer MRE extends mine life as we expect it to, brokers will need to pencil in a full year of production in FY26. Even with gold price of $2621 that would result in EPS of ~1.8p which means shares are trading on a PE of just of 5 right now. That is plainly ludicrous when an asset like Havieron is also in the locker.

Based on page 31 of this recent gold road presentation https://goldroad.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Investor-Presentation-Bell-Potter-Unearthed-February-2025.pdf

The average PE ratio of the 10 producers listed in 13.3x, which gives a target of 24p, whilst even applying an 8x ratio to FY26 earnings of 1.8p gets you to 15p, and you could quite easily argue that given the quality of Havieron GGP should trade at a premium to peers who have either lower quality or lower quantity resources / reserves.

In the time before the listing the market makers will attempt to shake out the weak, and it's true that the recent spike to 9.7p plays with your emotions. However, once on the ASX any short term frustration will be worth it IMO.

Being walked down like a placing is inbound, as predicted by our new found oracle 'nodaydreaming'. How convenient that the CLN's got flipped beforehand! In fairness it'll probably allow for freer trading in the run up to the SOC release & thereafter. I want to see at least £2m raised & preferably most of it going to the same investors who have provided sticky hands in EML. As always, time will tell & of course nothing may materialise...

There was a gap on the chart at 8.37p created by the gap up on Monday morning, this has now been filled and buyers are coming back in. Be nice to build a strong base around here and SLOWLY move up ahead of the upcoming catalysts. Spikes on AIM aren't good as they are nearly always retail driven, so the FOMO can easily reverse...

@nodaydreaming, isn't it a bit odd that you created an LSE account on 5th Feb and made a very bullish first post at 2.56pm calling for a 5 bagger and then from 7th Feb onwards have switched to talking shares down?

I've been posting on here for 18 months and I've never seen a brand new account sign up just to post on PAT, nevermind switch tack completely within few days.

Is it simply a huge coincidence that the CLN shares hit the market on 6th Feb?

Or are you one of the note holders who has sold into the market and now has FOMO in case the price runs away from you? Hmmmm.

Promising that the offer has moved up to 9.2p, although still 8.9p to buy at present. Won't take much to get us moving I don't think.

Just getting started here. It struck me as amazing that Don Durrett had simply no idea that Telfer extension beyond 15 months is practically nailed on. Just shows how few people spend time digging into 2000-2020 Telfer info... that release has the potential to be seismic IMO.

We're now at 1,537,271 shares bought / sold via uncrossing auctions since the 1,788,007 CLN shares were admitted to the market on 6th Feb. Prior to that there was no stock at 9.5p, so as I said last week it seems too much of a coincidence for the 1.5m sold shares to be anything other than the CLN's. So we have another 250k to go, then we should be off higher IMO.

"it can't be any 'market sensitive' information. "

The market cap of GGP is £1.1b, so it could be very impactful to future production but not need to be individually released to the market. None of the producers will separately disclose drill results, that's the realm of explorers...

This was last week on the panel composition

https://x.com/mmichalek91/status/1884652130637930934?s=46

Seat of arbitration

https://x.com/mmichalek91/status/1877756113413976397?s=46

Thought I'd wait until after close to post this as it was super interesting to observe the auction activity again today. In the end we had just over 910k shares exchanged in the 4 daily auctions, as a reminder this means someone bought 910k shares and someone sold 910k on the order book. Conversely when you see 'O' trades these are retail investors buying directly from the market makers. Yesterday afternoon we had 320k shares exchanged, and having watched the auctions over the last couple of weeks it's fairly safe to assume that these are the shares that that were admitted to trading yesterday morning. So at least 1.2m have been snapped up already.

And the interesting part; in the 11am auction this morning there was a buy order for 1.13m shares at 8.9p. This was placed at 10.50am before there were any sells on the other side of the book. At 10.55am along came a 500k sell at 9.20p, clearly hoping that the buyer upped their bid. This was an interesting move as it showed the buyers hand & tells you that they are eager to get their shares as quickly as possible.

So maybe another couple of days of cat and mouse and then we should be back to where things stood on Wednesday, with no stock around!

The market reaction to high grade Telfer drill results + MRE + mine life extension will really interesting, how much value does it add? Bear in mind once again that there is nothing in the current broker forecasts for Telfer production beyond March 2026...

Based on auction activity I think it's about to get very interesting indeed... I think a fund manager or serious HNW individual has done the same due diligence as the hardy band of PI's in here & come to the conclusion that this is seriously mispriced.

I still find it hard to comprehend that one of the key reasons used by Rajasthan to deny to license was because we change company name, it just beggars belief. I can't imagine the chair of the arbitration panel being too impressed when he hears / reads that!