Member Info for ShearClass

It's just one tranche of CLN's, so $250k in PAT's bank. It's peanuts versus the market cap, and gets us through to SOC release. Of course if they can do a deal for the WA assets and get several £million in the bank before then, even better.

Steady buying via the L2 auction continues, I suspect the buyer is very pleased to get stock 407k shares 8.8p & 8.9p given it was NT for 10k at 9.5p on Wed afternoon & yesterday morning. 727k shares bought / sold via UT trade auctions since yesterday afternoon, plus another 700k shares that went through the market makers yesterday morning. So if that supply is from the 1.8m CLN's then it won't last for long :)

Ps. Max 98 days to SOC now... 63 trading days if I can count properly

How predictable, open shares with no quote to buy for any amount (should be illegal) and bid heavily, knowing some sucker will take the bait. If any market makers are reading this, it's why you are steadily killing the AIM market and before long there won't be any reputable shares traded on SETSqx.

Max 99 days to SOC release, FOMO and time pressure will do their job here, no matter what tricks the MM's play.

Someone hacked your account deckchair?

I think half of them are long gone & were sold via the January uncrossing auctions where ~4m shares were exchanged during the month. I suspect the remainder will be held until after the SOC, as it's logical to retain exposure until after the next large catalyst.

Regardless, someone has been bidding for over 1m shares in every auction for the past few weeks, usually with limited success. It wouldn't surprise me to see a TR1 such has been the buying persistence. I think they would snap up 1.8m shares in a heartbeat right now.

Fundamentally undervalued and with the progress YTD & it feels lot less risky than 6 months ago (I.e. if the seat of the arbitration hadn't been in London and the chair had been less favourable)

Someone is expending serious capital to keep this under 8p. I sense that their resolve won't last forever, no matter how smart they think they are they can't control the price of gold which appears to be heading for $3000 at a rate of knots. I count 53.5m in large chunks this week along (20m + 16m at 8.05p monday, 12.5m at 7.8p yesterday & another 5m at 8p just now. That around £4.2m spent if they are short sold shares (to cap it). How far will they stretch is the question?!

Agree with that, and quite frankly it should be there already. The newsflow since the turn of the year has been fantastic and we are mere weeks away from the second most impactful moment in the life of this investment / option.

I find valuation market cap comparisons with ZEN difficult because they have some debt (CAD40m at last annual report). Adding that to their market cap at the recent placing gets you to ~£65m. So they are in the ~8-10% of claim range that feels sensible.

However, as I've posted before, Prairie Mining (which became GreenX in late 2021) had 228m shares in issue prior to it's SOC release on 9th June 2021. Pre release it was trading at 13.5p / £31m market cap & reached 21p on the day of release (£47.8m cap). This was 6% of their initial £806m claim.

PAT sits at £18m and is on the verge of releasing a SOC that is almost certain (in my opinion) to be equal to or greater than GreenX (based on CEO comments + the size of our LCM financing package).

When I first bought in here on the LCM financing in August 2023 I paid 8.5p and shares reached 11p in the days after that, valuing that company at £16.5m. There has been much progress & water under the bridge since then & it's high time we re-rated.

Some very basic maths here;

Year to 31/07/24 data products revenue = £83.8m, yesterday Yougov said 'low single digit underlying growth', let's assume that is 3% and is maintained in H2, full year 2025 would be £86.3m

Research was £177.7m in FY24, also saw 'low single digit growth on an underlying basis', assume that continues for the full year and it would reach £183m

CPS was 'in line with expectations', last year they reported £74.2m revenue for the period 9th Jan to 31st July, annualised that represents £132.75m. Let's assume that in line = the same as last year .

Add the three together and you get £402m, versus current full year forecasts in the market which are for £386m (sharepad consensus).

Based on the above it appears the half year results will be fine & the probability of a downgrade looks pretty low to me. For the full year to July there remains uncertainty of course, however they appear to have margin for error (assuming that CPS trading in line is maintaining revenue.

Based on the above I'd say risk reward looks good enough for an initial position, expecially with the former CEO returning. Interest rates decreasing will also help lower interest costs, adding to EPS for next year.

All IMO / DYOR.

Haha, 1 minute after I posted that someone sold 157k at 8.75p... classic PAT

Hardly a nutter when the last MRE had the total mineral resource as 151mt at 1.7g/t au & clearly I made the same mistake on the assumptions below.

So 6mtpa @ 2.7g/t = 16.2m grams + 14mtpa Telfer ore @0.75g/t = 26.7m grams total, 22m grams at 82% recovery, 707k per annum production... wow.

Has Shaun discussed mixing of Havieron and Telfer ores?

I've started benchmarking against ASX peers and the thing that really stands out is how massive the 20mtpa Telfer processing capacity is. It creates massive potential upside vs our competitors and is hugely valuable IMO.

Capricorn have 6.5mtpa processing capacity and are valued at ~£1.7b, they have reserves of just over 6Moz and current production of ~28koz per quarter.

Genesis have 4.4mtpa processing capacity and are valued at ~£1.9b with production of ~57koz per quarter

The Money of Mine lads were chatting about Havieron potential and reckon that ore extraction per annum could be upped to 5-6mt if they add a second decline etc.

So my question to @bamps21 / anyone else is; what could Greatland conceivably produce if they can ramp Havieron output to 6mtpa and supplement it with 14mtpa from successful extension of Telfer?

My high level calcs are;

6mtpa of Havieron ore at 1.7g/t = 10.2m grams +

14mtpa Telfer ore at 0.75g/t = 10.5m grams

That gives gross potential of 20.7m grams. Let's assume a recovery rate of 82% (as per the December quarter) to get 17m grams output, which converted to Troy ounces = 546koz per annum

Obviously you can tweak Havieron ore grade, Telfer ore grade and recovery rates, however it looks like 500-800koz is feasible...

Look forward to feedback!

Thanks schlemiel.

The big picture topic is that of opportunity cost.

Imagine that there is a large ASX investor who wants to buy 250m Greatland shares but can't until it cross lists.

It makes abundant sense to borrow 100m shares for 6 months and lend them to Berenberg / another broker to sell into the AIM market to blunt retail enthusiasm. If these shares are sold near 8p then there is every chance that they can be bought back lower down and recycled several times before the cross listing.

The alternative is to do nothing, watch GGP re-rate to 12-15p and miss out on £10-20m / AUD20-40m profit.

Doing nothing isn't really an option...

Oh and I suspect ASX demand is multiples of 250m shares, so there is likely to be a lot of money influencing proceedings until Greatland trades in Sydney.

No quote for 10k shares at 9p, can't ever remember shares being this illiquid to buy in the 18 months I've been here...

You are always going to get activity like this when a cross listing is pending.

I thought it was interesting to listen to the Money of Mine section on GGP from a few days back

I strongly suspect that Matty wants to buy more shares but either isn't able to or doesn't want to until it lists on the ASX. There will be many funds in the same position, the majority being unable to hold non Australian shares in their mandates.

The capping of the price has been obvious over the last few trading sessions and has been led by Berenberg (JBER). They had to sell 36m or so at 8.05p to stop the breakout through 8.2p 'resistance' on Monday, this was then followed up yesterday with a 12.5m sell at 7.8p and voila, PI sentiment cools off, profit taking commences and a breakout is averted.

It'll all end when it lists on ASX and price discovery takes hold and will hopefully be a distant memory this time next year.

What a fantastic update - back to back upgrades and ahead on all metrics. Looking at the technicals 40p appears inevitable in the short term. Longer term could it return to it's 2021 levels?

I was pleased with that RNS, 800koz has got to be tempting for any junior entity wanting to build a portfolio of assets in an era of record gold prices. Let's hope Mark can pull off a deal.

Shares appear exceptionally tight this morning - max quote is for 25k shares at 8.95p, anything more goes to NT...

Now down to a maximum 101 days until the statement of claim is released, when does ZEN style FOMO kick in? Can you imagine the stampede if the SOC is ~$1.5-2b vs a £17m market cap?!

Market makers having to work extremely hard to stop this rocketing, listening to this wonderful interview it's clearly at the wrong price. They are executing fantastically well so far, the put hedges being just one example of clear headed thinking. Market makers / shorters needing to work very hard to hold shares under the 8p resistance. I doubt they'll have much success given the strength of the fundamentals.

Tremendous post from Marcin

"In an earlier post I have already noticed that this is a very beneficial nomination for us investors, because in almost 75% of cases that ended with a verdict in favor of one of the parties, Prof. Armesto ruled in favor of the investor (it was specifically 17:6). Today I checked what compensation these winning investors managed to obtain and it was 27% of claims, although there were also frequent cases of compensation being awarded in the range of 40-58%. Generally, Prof. Armesto more often than others awards in favor of investors, but the amounts of compensation in relation to the claims pursued are slightly lower than usual (I personally assume that it is usually possible to win 40% of cases and get 30% of compensation, or values ​​close to it).

The most interesting case, which is definitely worth taking a closer look at, was Rusoro Mining v. Venezuela, which also concerned the expropriation of gold mining concessions. The company managed to win USD 967.8 million out of a claim of USD 2,318.9 million (42 %) , which was additionally increased by interest to USD 1.3 billion (over half of the claim, so a great result) as of the date of the verdict."

What chance of success will the market start to price in once the SOC amount is known? Hard to imagine it being less than 10% of the value, so anything over $1b will see us well over 20p. Fascinating times.

Max quote to buy since 9am this morning has been 10k shares, NT for anything more...

Wonderful to see Zenith multibag over the last month and a bit, as it shows what is possible when retail take a liking to a small cap. I strongly suspect some of that money could flow our way now we have everything lined up & a catalyst on the near term horizon. It's now NT to buy and the L2 auctions remain stacked on the buy side, shooting past 10p would be nice for starters (and long overdue).

@Newtothis123, it's hard to believe that anyone would post on this bulletin board not having read a single post over the last 10 days but as a newbie here I'll give you the benefit of the doubt...

I actually had the same opinion as you until the production RNS on 22/01, however after a lot of research GGP is now a cornerstone investment for me.

You are correct that Telfer is an old mine, however that means nothing whatsoever; it was an old mine in 2003 when modern day production began & the post feasibility study presentation below was released;

https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20031015/pdf/3jcv2rhv3bmk9.pdf

Why is the above presentation relevant today? At least two main reasons;

1. Page 4 / slide 8 states that the gold ore reserve in 2003 was 18.4Moz & resource 26.2Moz and that average annual LOM gold production would be 800,000oz

The reality is production never reached those levels, with a peak of 689koz in 2010. Indeed, as per company reports that I have checked (do your own checking), average annual production over the 18 years from June 2005 to June 2023 was just over 500koz for total production of ~9.5Moz

Clearly this isn't even half the 2003 ore reserve and just 36% of the 26.2Moz resource.

To further back this up, here is a 2013 Newcrest study that references an M&I resource of 18.2Moz in 2012 which was reduced by 5.2Moz in 2013 due primarily to the falling gold price.

2. Page 28 of the 2003 presentation has information on the West Dome Deeps potential, something that was outside the scope of the 2003 feasibility study. So even beyond the ~9Moz reserve / 17Moz resource that apparently remains untapped from the 2003 feasibility study, there is the potential for further large, high grade discoveries.

And the you have the satellite deposits like 'backdoor' (page 30) to add into the mix.

Regardless of the above, at present Cannacord et al have nothing forecast beyond the initial 15 month mine plan, and therein lies the opportunity for those who can apply some common sense.

DYOR / NIA

So Owais is pranging, no surprises there. The arbitration question had already been raised in the auction docs, so they either didn't read them or chose to ignore it. The auction really was one of the most bizarre turns of events I have seen, particularly the 65% royalty agreed. You wonder their plan was? Was it trying to call PAT's bluff, i.e. do you have cojones to take on a state / country? Or even more simply, we do what we want, so good luck trying to stop us? Such a shame that we won't have access to watch the live proceedings.