Member Info for ShearClass

Rob, I'm just not sure why they would be drilling outside the strike length so early? Logic would imply that they should be testing ground either side of PEP001, not south of it. If big money wants in, they aren't going to get far buying on the market. The only way is via a placing, but maybe I'm just being too cynical - wouldn't be the first time.

The danger is that if the next hole is a duster then the market makers will gap shares back down to 3p. If it's good then it's game on and the dreaming over resource size can start. Therefore, as a non holder I don't see any incentive to buy shares at 5.25p.

Looking at figure 4, PEP013 looks high risk to me, as it is south of the end of the mineralised zone identified in PEP001.

Putting my cynical AIM hat on, what's the betting they don't encounter anything exciting, shares go back to 3p, they raise another £2m, then drill further north where PEP001 and PEP013 meet?

£835k doesn't exactly go very far does it.

"It's 60 - 40 on the sell side eaarly volume, pre open, shorts may have a field day,"

Keep making things up falconer - the order book isn't even open until 7.50 ;)

Gallmat, it's called lancing the boil. The investment case here is constantly undermined by a continuous flow of placing shares which are issued at 5 to 5.5p and then drip fed into the market at 7.5p or lobbed into the market should the price go above that level.

That RNS takes us all for fools IMO. Do they honestly expect us to believe that 'sophisticated' AIM investors will sink $250k into an unlisted west african gold company?!

That RNS is a mess IMO.

They've said any discussions on the WA assets are still early stage and not binding, yet the CLN's have a conversion deadline of 31/01/25

The conversion price of 5.5p is equal to the last placing and once again puts an overhang over the share price for a paltry amount of capital (in the grand scheme of things)

As I said yesterday, just sell the WA assets for £1 and do what they promised, which is minimise dilution.

My concern here is as usual everything is taking longer than promised and the half year results are due at the end of December which will show a depleted cash balance due to them messing around with drilling.

Why don't they just dispose of the WA 'assets@ for a nominal sum and stop p*ssing around?

Bear in mind that the Resolute Gold CEO has been detained in Mali as of this weekend for no apparent reason, it's a dangerous country to operate in and I can't understand why anyone would bother with intersections of 0.5g/t.

The tribunal chairman was supposed to be appointed by early October, yet here we are in mid November and non the wiser.

At this rate I wouldn't expect the statement of claim before mid 2025.

"All you need to know: MMs opened at £1 and they usually overshoot"

I hate this type of utter naivety.

This is a SETS share. That means it is order driven, not quote driven.

The opening price is set by supply / demand of market participants on the order book. The 100p opening price simply reflected the balance of buyers vs sellers at 8am yesterday. When the market opened, institutional holders of WG. started to offload, and shorts would also have increased their positions. Retail investors bought all the way down, providing liquidity to both of the above. There was minimal support until 50p when the first signs of institutional support arrived.

Like Vistry this morning, the right course of action here is to avoid if you aren't a holder and cut losses asap if you are. Catching the falling knife on the first day is just silly.

Here is the admission doc for APN

https://www.appliednutritionplc.com/content/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Prospectus.pdf

It's the first easy to understand, profitable growth company to list on LSE for an age, if they can beat expectations this year and raise forecasts then I suspect shares will be well north of £2

Where do you start?

Firstly, revenue on its own means absolutely nothing.

Applied Nutrition is a much higher quality business with 30% EBITDA margins. In their recent interims THG made an EBITDA margin of ~6% in both their Beauty and Nutrition segments. This means THG needs 5x the revenue to achieve the same EBITDA number.

Applied Nutrition is a pure play squarely focused on growing market share in nutrition. THG is in both Beauty and Nutrition & these segments are comprised of dozens of prior acquisitions, we have zero visibility on whether any of their acquisitions have worked.

Applied Nutrition is highly profitable; they reported pre tax profit of £24.4m in the year to 31/07/24, THG made a loss of £99.4m in their last set of interims

Applied Nutrition has a pristine balance sheet with zero debt, zero intangibles and cash of £20m. THG has a weak balance sheet with net debt of £350m and intangibles of £1.1b.

Applied nutrition is a growth company that has nearly tripled gross profit in the last 2 years. THG has seen gross profit decline in successive years...

If Applied Nutrition was to grow its revenue to match THG whilst maintaining the same EBITDA margins they would make £200m EBITDA and earnings per share would be around 60p

So to me, they look like chalk and cheese!

Something for shareholders? It IPOd in 2015 at 139p a share, shares peaked at £21 in 2021. No equity was raised in the IPO, but selling shareholders made £50m. Imagine how they felt in 2021 when the shares the sold were worth £755m!

Timing is everything ;)

Also, anyone find it interesting that the IPO valuation back in February was mooted to be up to £1b?

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1040158/jd-sports-backed-applied-nutrition-mulling-1bn-london-listing-1040158.html

With that context it feels like we might have got a snip - which extracts like this reinforce;

"The Company is very pleased to have the support of four prominent and highly successful North West entrepreneurs, including Mohsin Issa, who have committed to participate in the Offer to an aggregate value of £25 million pursuant to the Cornerstone Investment Agreements"

I find it unlikely that they would be putting in £25m unless the valuation was favourable, especially when the IPO date was pulled forward to effectively lock in a lower CGT rate.

Anyone else spot the change in current trading between the initial registration statement filed on 30/09 and the final prospectus on 15/10?

This is from the 15/10

"The Group has started its current financial year strongly, delivering £7.7 million of revenue in August and £7.9 million of revenue in September, a month-on-month growth rate of 3.0 per cent. This equates to £15.6 million of revenue for the first two months of FY25. The US business is seeing good momentum and delivered $1.4 million of revenue for the two months to September 2024, with month-on-month revenue growth for September of 30%. For the first two months of FY25 the Group has delivered an adjusted EBITDA margin of >30% and free cash flow conversion of approximately

70%, tracking ahead of the IPO guidance."

vs this on 30/09

The Group has started its current financial year strongly, delivering £7.7 million of revenue in August, the first month of FY25. Management are encouraged by the level of new orders received which includes an exciting new purchase order of approximately $1 million from one of the Group’s target US customers. Management continues to prioritise “Expo” events as a core marketing activity for the Group and are looking forward to the upcoming events which Applied Nutrition will be attending, including Dubai Muscle Show in October, Turf-Games Dubai in November, and

Fitness festivalens Stockholm in December. Management have more “Expo” events planned for the first quarter of 2025."

I also liked this from the prospectus;

"Looking ahead, management are encouraged by the pipeline of opportunities for increasing listings and distribution points with existing customers. The Group continues to convert new and target customers with recent wins including Selecta and Ocado in the UK, and The Vitamin Shoppe (which has over 780 locations in the US), all of which are yet to commence trading and so will be additive to revenue for FY25."

Also note the 3% monthly growth rate - if they maintain that for FY25 then revenue would be £105.7m vs £100m expectations.

At 30% adjusted EBITDA margin that would mean APN trades on just over 10x EBITDA which compares favourably to something like W7L, which is on nearly 15x.

Overall this looks to be priced favourably and risk reward looks good to me.

If they do it on their own then they lose face, admit defeat etc. If Trump forces it then it's a negotiated settlement. It's very very different.

Disagree, Trump will very likely stop the huge US funding for Ukraine if he wins, if he hangs this over Zelensky's head then I don't see how they won't accept some form of balanced peace treaty. Ukraine get to rebuild, Russia achieve their 'aims' and Trump appeases those who want to end the war. From my perspective I cannot see the point in continuing to pump arms into Ukraine, both sides are losing tens of thousands a year & it's practically a stalemate. The whole operation has been a mess for Russia and devastating for Ukraine. It needs to stop.

Oh and to the poster below, FXPO were strongly profitable in H1; "Profit after tax increased by 104% to US$55 million."

The other relevant fact about the gold price is that the higher it goes the more likely India will be to settle, as the cashflows / tax from Bhukia would quickly offset any settlement. Not that I expect a settlement, however it's always a possibility now the case has been formally submitted & is making progress towards court...

Wait til the masses discover that this is a genuine Helium discovery - shares hit CAD1.60 (96p) on the initial discovery back in March & have slowly come down as warrant holders exercised and sold into an illiquid TSX market.

Volume on the TSX yesterday was just 80k shares, vs the 484k traded on LSE, and it's barely even got started yet.

If HEX is a £26m market cap this should be at least double based on their discovery & flow rate info. If the next deeper well hits the jackpot then it could go crazy as HE1 followers plough in.

Looks well worth a punt IMO.

Has the potential for a dual NASDAQ listing been mentioned in an RNS before? That's what's driven the rise as far as I'm concerned, not the CLN conversion issuance at 52p.

"attracting global specialist biotechnology investors and potentially a NASDAQ dual listing"

Interesting to see where this opens in the morning...

Have any of you looked at the balance sheet & financials here? Net debt is out of control, profitability decreasing & free cash flow eaten up by acquisition costs. They can't keep spending £80m PA on Australian practices as the interest expenses will offset any PBT benefit... so what do they do? Raise equity? If top line starts to decline then what next?

Note the rising ask today -

60k shares bought at 10.54 for 7.28p

50k shares bought at 11.15 for 7.3p

18k shares bought at 2.14 for 7.4p

Just needs a couple of decent buys to break 7.5p and I think we'll be off.

Last weeks news on GRX, the excellent interview & then the mining suspension are really building the fundamental picture here. Any move higher on volume would help the story spread further too...