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Very intriguing news, an initial moral victory for Panthera if nothing else.

Reading between the lines, it feels as though someone in the Indian Gov has decided that enough is enough and that the GOR need to stop behaving like Indo / PAT will simply go away. It's entirely possible that the higher echelons of government were unaware of the dispute until the request for the tribunal, such a formal demand may have shaken them into action.

Remember that the auction process was specific to GOR, as was the high court decision. The case will be taken against the GOI though, so perhaps someone thought that exploiting the resource whilst the case was ongoing was simply taking the pi*s and likely to backfire?

Either way, the fact they auctioned an asset which has seemingly been expropriated isn't going to do them any favours IMO.

The Prairie Mining RNS from 17th September 2020 which said;

"Following LSE Admission, the Company's issued ordinary share capital will be 228,355,089 ordinary shares. The above figure of 228,355,089 may be used by shareholders as the denominator for the calculations by which they can determine if they are required to notify their interest in, or a change to their interest in, the Company following LSE Admission."

GreenX was trading as Prairie Mining when it started the claim process. In June 2021 they released their claim value of £806m which was subsequently reduced to £737m. At close the day before the claim release they were trading at 13p and had 228,355,089 shares in issue, so had a market cap of £29.6m. On the day of the SOC release shares reached a peak of 21p and closed at 16.5p. So the peak market cap was £48m and closing £37.6m. So on average they trade at 5% of claim value on the day of release.

From there the shares were quiet for around 18 months before rocketing to 50p in Jan 2023 when the trial concluded.

In Panthera terms, if we submit the same claim size as GreenX / Prairie and trade at 5% of it's value then that would represent a share price of just under 20p based on 195m shares in issue.

Also important to note that the claim value doesn't account for accrued interest which can be very material.

So at 7p we're in a good spot, I was particularly pleased to hear no dilution until the middle of next year, which presumably doesn't take into account the sale of the WA assets.

Things could look very different here come mid 2025.

Disagree on the budget impact as that will have had minimal effect on these numbers. Public sector budgets run from April to March, so any capital spending in 2024 would have been agreed last year. The softcat numbers in a couple of weeks will confirm it anyway. 2.1% short interest is always worth taking note of.

The only joke here is how duplicitous their September trading update was.

They reported strong growth in gross invoiced income, adjusted operating profit & gross profit but didn't mention the decline revenue.

This morning we find out that revenue declined 2.9% in H1, versus full year forecasts for a 12.6% increase to £233.2m. Based on the ~£100m revenue reported in H2 2024 they will need to report revenue growth of nearly 28% to meet full year expectations

Yes, they are fine for EPS, but it raises huge questions around future growth as clearly gross margin increases can only take them so far

Based on the short interest, I expect this to derate to 15x PER over the coming months. Not one I'll be going near again even though I got out on the bell for a small loss.

Top line revenue was forecast to grow 12.6% to £233.2m

Really good video, great to get more regular updates. Plenty of hints that the claim value will exceed GreenX & if we can trade at 10% of that amount then the time we have been invested will be well worth it.

Nope, they are in the FTSE 250 so no IHT exemption.

Nice 10k buy from an hour ago, it won't take many like that to send us over 10p.

The spread is so wide because the market makers know how illiquid PAT is and how quickly it can move, it's a defensive move which won't work forever.

The day the claim value drops is going to be glorious :)

Rumpel, it's the 16.3% H2 growth that is most impressive, to grow 7% for the year despite H1 being down 5% was a real positive surprise.

Indeed, if we look back over the last 16 half year periods, such growth has only been exceeded twice; H2 2018 managed 18.6% and H2 2022 16.4%, both on lower bases. On an absolute basis the £11.6m revenue growth is a record.

The most recent positive half was H1 2023 which saw 14.6% growth and represented the last time shares traded significantly above the current £4-5.20 range (they hit £7.20 in the weeks after the results), I see little reason why shares won't trend towards that level over the coming months.

If they've valued Ingenuity at £300m why on earth would anyone buy shares today?

Just wait for the official demerger to take place & you'll be able to buy shares in THG for £300m less than they trade for today...

There was a technical gap on the chart at 474p & with short sellers around they will be looking to minimize the damage before Tuesday... Rock solid balance sheet & H1 was ahead of full year expectations (much to the hedgies disappointment I'm sure). So yes, barring anything unforseen, a good entry point IMO.

Gallmat, the problem with using pre production developers like De Grey is that their valuation fluctuates massively depending on where they sit on the lassonde curve. I.e. De Grey had a far higher valuation per oz a couple of years ago in the discovery phase than it does in the current Orphan period. Likewise, if they are producing 500koz by 2026 as planned then their valuation will be far higher than it is at present (gold price conditional).

I think they'll look to benchmark against producers as this is the most reliable stage of the curve, which is what Allenby attempt to do, but bizarrely only include 1 ASX producer.

Agree though on it being unbelievably cheap at this level, and nice to see a little tick up into close after a couple of buys.

Anyone selling under 20p after yesterday's news is crazy IMO.

Let's hope it becomes a priority at some point soon - maybe when they've spun off the WA operations.

GreenX is also listed on the Polish exchange which seemed to really help with price discovery as some of the local investors were all over due diligence.

I think multiple listings for a special situation like this make a lot of sense, for one thing it stops market makers playing games!

Gallmat, have you ever asked Mark about the possibility of a dual listing on the ASX?

Given he is based in Australia, Indo gold is Australian & the BIT in question is the Indian - Australian treaty it would seem to make a lot of sense.

Add in the fact that Indiana & GreenX are on the ASX & have average daily trading volumes way above PAT, plus LCM are well known among Australian investors and it looks like a no brainer.

Cost may be a reason at present, however I've no doubt it would make it easier to access capital.

Wouldn't it also make sense if LCM used someone like Foden for pre case DD too? If he gives the green light to proceed then committing $13.6m is that much easier?

Today's news really is sensational for the litigation arbitration sector, justice has now been served against Tanzania & Poland, why should India be any different? Especially given the absolutely ridiculous conduct they appear to have displayed against Indo / PAT over the last 16+ years?!

Happy days if individuals like Andrew Monk are shareholders, I think it's now a matter of time before we break out to a new higher range. We may need the statement of claim to catalyse the re-rate or word of mouth might do the trick on it's own. Whichever it is, out chances of success now feel a lot higher today & more high net worth individuals will want to get involved.

LCM have proven their class beyond any doubt today, awards of this magnitude make waves that last for a long time - India may even bat an eyelid ;)

Great news for PAT, this was a key risk to be navigated. I've added on the open just under 6p. I can see GRX money flowing here + others waking up and smelling the coffee. A £252m award for PAT would likely mean a share price over £1. However, we also know that LCM increased their funding amount after months of DD suggesting they have increased confidence of success. The risk vs reward here looks unbelievable now.

Considering we know they are trading ahead of expectations it's actually a better opportunity than the early August fall to 58p. Anything below these levels will surely be snapped up; a PER of 20x vs EPS growth of over 120% will look tasty when the results land!

"I wonder why they seem to think that such a discount to the peer group remains appropriate. If it were to close, the share price would be nearer 870, based on their figures."

I find the work of Equity Development to be lazy when it comes to valuations, they are happy to retain silly targets for poorly performing equities, but don't upgrade quickly enough for businesses performing really well. It'll be interesting to see what they publish post today's huge deal.

Shore Capital have upped their valuation target to >900p today from 600p previously, that is a proper upgrade!

REA are really p*ssing me off now. They don't seem to consider the fact that RMV shareholders will have little appetite for accepting 60% of the takeover value in the stock of a company trading on a PE of 60x. If it derates to 30x post deal then the effective acquisition price is below £6.

Attempting what is an increasingly hostile takeover with only 40% cash is plain stupid, wouldn't it be funny if RMV attempted to pacman them with a lowball offer based on the multiple they are offering for RMV? They could tank the REA share price and kill the deal ;)