Member Info for ShearClass

@hopefullygold, try reading my post - I said closing auction

I.e. the end of day closing auction on the order book which produces the closing uncrossing trade. Strong buying demand is never a bad sign as it indicates underlying sentiment.

London South East trade data is worse than a chocolate teapot.

Big demand in closing auction - 5.8m buys vs 1.6m sells...

I think it's too late in the day for playing Russian roulette here, PAT can move on a whiff of volume and it's very easy to lose 5-10% by trying to be clever. Furthermore, as I said last night there is significant support on the L2 auction book (1m shares), which is very different from months gone by. Final point to reiterate again - the 16th May is the latest they can file, IMO it will be done well before then...

No quote quote for >30k shares, which is tight for PAT. All we need is a little bit of volume and the illiquidity will do the rest.

I'm delighted that we have a hard deadline to act as a buying catalyst, it really is a critical ingredient that had been missing up to now.

Agree on it being extremely positive news, Illumina simply wouldn't entertain giving any company a 60 minute presentation slot unless they had genuine scientific / commercial value.

Suspect the early sellers will regret it...

Be aware that a statement of claim is normally thousands of pages & any counter to it will take months to prepare and submit, so there isn't a need to wait until the deadline.

AIM loves a deadline, especially with a huge catalyst like the pending SOC.

My expectation is that they'll release it well 16th May and that we'll see shares trading over 10p in the next month or so.

I've mentioned before about the uncrossing trade volume change in the last few months, essentially I view this as demand from buyers who can't buy via UK brokers (so located internationally).

From July 2024 to October 2024 volume was just 1.1m shares, November then saw 1.9m exchanged, December 1.4m and January to date a record 3.1m (trade value ~£250k). Indeed, in tonight's closing auction there was ~1m shares on the buyside book. So demand is growing rapidly, as buyers with knowledge of how close the SOC is take positions.

Just need to get some forward momentum in the price again, it's so frustrating to see both EML & Zenith up considerably this week whilst we plod along at 7.5p, below the level at which funding was secured.

Note to the CEO; CUT OUT ISSUING SHARES TO SPIVS WHO FLIP THEM FOR A QUICK PROFIT

"Hi SC

There’s an historical document on Newcrest old website from around 2013 showing the 4 vertical drills with some very high grade intercepts working through those a rough average around 5g/t can be estimated. I’ve only heard what Shaun is telling us that they are finding consistent high grades."

Thanks for the response Bamps, I've scoured the internet for sure document but not found anything. Can you post the link please?

@bamps21, what data / info have you read to give you any indication that those intercepts are possible??

Having watched the 2022 Havieron video posted over the weekend there is no doubt the fundamentals here are amazing. It's so difficult and expensive to both make a discovery and then develop it that hardly any juniors make the transition to major producer status. GGP are now most of the way there.

This time last year shares were at the same level as now, valuing the company at ~£375m. All it had at that stage was 30% of Havieron, so even adjusting for 100% ownership would give a valuation of £1.25b. Add in the Telfer processing plant & potentially multi millions ore reserves + a $700 increase in gold and I can't see why it shouldn't be valued at >£2b.

From past experience with Atlantic Lithium's dual listing on the ASX in September 2022, I would expect the price to be held down until the cross listing is complete. ASX fundies & II's have far more capital than AIM retail / UK funds do, and will use it to ensure they get the AUD listed shares at the best price possible. Post listing it should rapidly re-rate though, especially after quarterlies & the Havieron feasibility study. Every chance of being wrong though.

Should be an exciting 12 months regardless.

The whole point of the ASX primary listing is to enable Australian index fund buying. If you are going to list in your home market then it makes no sense to retain a primary listing elsewhere. Calling something dodgy just because you don't understand it isn't going to get you very far in the world of investing.

No quite to buy for more than 250k shares, despite the ask being 7.5p. I think liquidity at these levels is drying up, but market makers will try and hold shares down for a bit longer to try and encourage some profit takers.

If they announce a Telfer extension to say 2028 and can produce >400koz per annum up to Havieron coming online then this is simply at the wrong price.

I need to do more ASX benchmarking, but take Capricorn Metals as an example. Market cap is A$3.1b / £1.6b, their last quarterly production figure was 28koz! So GGP / Telfer outproduced them in just 27 days. They have ore reserves of 4moz and medium term production targets of 300koz per annum once their Mt Gibson property is online.

So Havieron is double their reserves & Telfer can produce more than their medium term target... Little sense that GGP trades at a near 40% discount...

Anyone selling in the morning will be very brave & risk severe FOMO given the number of near term catalysts.

I.e. from the Cannacord broker note;

"The company has prioritised LifeEx opportunities at the West Dome open pit. The two cutbacks (stage 7 & 8) have been prioritised for evaluation (and FID in FY25). Further, the company is evaluation other drilling targets that should contribute to the Telfer MRE update (targeted for completion in MarQ'25). Demonstration of life beyond the currently defined ore inventory is likely to be well received by the market (in our view)."

Well received by the market because there is nothing at all in the forecasts for any kind of extension...

@iancurtis, see my post at about 4.30 today, with the price of gold where it is today it looks like there could be a lot more economic ore available at Telfer.

Ore reserves were over 11moz back in 2011 and Newcrest only extracted ~5.5-6Moz in the 13 years that followed (about 450koz per annum). Mineral reserves were 18.5Moz! So there is gold everywhere, what the grade is isn't clear at present, but $2750 / A$4400 an ounce opens up a world of possibilities.

Started due diligence on this today and the main area of focus has been Telfer extension potential, what I've read so far is incredibly exciting but I'm certain it must have been discussed on here before?

The report which got me started;

https://minedocs.com/17/TechnicalTelfer2013.pdf

"The Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources for Telfer as at 31 December 2013 includes a material reduction of approximately 5.2Moz of gold to 13Moz of gold, compared with the 31 December 2012 estimate of 18.2Moz of gold.

This reduction has primarily come from West Dome and Main Dome open pit Mineral Resources as a direct result of the review of long term economic assumptions."

5.2Moz lopped off due to reviewing long term economic assumptions!

Note that from mid 2011 to mid 2013 the gold price declined from $1700 to $1300, so it's clear why they reduced their long term price estimates...

Now the exciting part.

Here is the Newcrest 2011 annual report;

https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReportArchive/N/ASX_NCM_2011.pdf

Page 30 has 2011 mineral resources by resource & 32 has ore reserves. As stated earlier, M&I gold at Telfer stood at 18.5Moz, but even ore reserves were 11.9Moz

What is incredible is that total production from June 2011 to June 2023 was 5.4Moz (wiki, annual reports) and works were suspended for the majority of CY24. Let's round actual production up to 6Moz to be prudent, however that is still 5Moz below the 2011 ore reserve figure and a scarcely believable 12.5Moz below the 2011 M&I contained insitu gold ounces. Further, less than 10% of this is in the inferred tonnage category...

Someone tell me I'm dreaming? Or does GGP potentially have 12Moz at Telfer plus 8Moz+ at Havieron + O'Callaghans copper / base metals + a shed load of cash, all at $2750 gold?

DYOR / NAI

Bear in mind the Cannacord broker note assumes no extension to Telfer & £777m / ~US960m in pre Havieron revenues (based on 500koz of stockpiles this appears to assume a selling price of US1920 per ounce... Current prices would add $365m of pure gross profit onto their numbers. And what if mine life can extended to 2028 based on spending say $200m? The last extension cost US150m and gave them another 2.5 years.

Beyond anything, the financial flexibility they have now is astonishing, and the market cap should be at the very least 50% higher than it is at present. If they extend Telfer by a few years then it will really take off.

Zero surprise to see this is getting sold off.

I calculate H2 monthly average bookings as being just £38.3m, down from £46.9m in H124, £59.7m in H223 and £51.3m in H123.

This time last year they had £520m contracted revenue and have delivered ~£645m for the full year. Now they have £566m contracted but forecasts in the market are for £773m revenue in 2025... So they need to deliver some £82m additional in year revenue to meet expectations, which is 12.7% of their FY24 number. Given the monthly average booking decline, that looks very difficult indeed.

Interesting to see how much they disclose at the capital markets day, however you can't help but think that it's being driven by the CEO wanting to cash in some of his £130m paper holding in YU via a secondary placing.

Will any investors be interested at these levels? It's hard to see why they would be given the declining KPI's.

All IMO. DYOR.

Statement of Claim should be released in the next couple of months. The AIM environment is very positive for multi bagging stocks at present, with several in the last week + Zenith in the arb space. Based on last July's reaction to just submitting the arbitration (5p to 9p) I think we'll comfortably see 12-15p as there will be a lot of FOMO.

Liberum forecasts were for revenues of £682m and EBITDA of £44.2m, a margin of 6.5%.

Today they've reported less than £650m in revenues but still had the audacity to say that EBITDA margin is 'forecasted above expectations'

The fact they haven't mentioned the actual EBITDA figure strongly suggests this is also below market forecasts.

If you don't want to be measured consistently against forecasts then don't put them in the market. If you miss forecasts then stand up and say so...

Not really, their PBT forecast for the current year was £66.1m, which they are trading in line with. The forecast for FY26 was for 10.9% growth in PBT to £73.3m. Today they reduced that guidance to mid to high single digits, so it's a downgrade!

This is a case of retail investors without access to forecasts vs those that do (classic UK).

The current year PE is now around 6.5x, which is only marginally cheaper than recent times, so the pullback isn't that surprising...