Member Info for ShearClass

"Under the Treaty, an arbitral tribunal is to be constituted within two months of delivery of the notice of arbitration and has not yet occurred as the date of this report."

This is what frustrates me with PAT. This is critical information dropped as a one liner in the annual results.

Why are they not issuing an RNS to update on tribunal formation timelines / communication?

If the tribunal is delayed then the claim filing won't be coming this side of xmas, and as a result there will likely be another funding needed before the major catalyst.

It's a very very frustrating situation.

It reads very well indeed, launch of Mistral WILL happen before the end of the year.

"Without accounting for any other deals within Invinity's existing pipeline, the potential revenue contribution from the LODES project (match-funded, but yet to close) and the 14.4 MWh order from Everdura (closed in September 2023) substantially covers 2025 revenue forecasts, with the aforementioned DOE projects representing a material portion of 2026 revenue."

It has to be a strong buy given the 100%+ upside just to fill the gap back to where it was trading the day before the doomsday trading update.

"Good companies and investors get screwed over because the few can never be allowed to lose"

Like what exactly? Absolute drivel, W7L has done 1000% since mid 2020, have they been screwed? Or how about FTC, this time last year it was trading at 16p and today sits at 68p having hit 80p last month. Or BKS which is up 132% YTD, IGP which is up 114%

There are always winners, but you have to be on the ball to make money, which is no different to any market the world over.

It's pointless moving to the main market unless they can qualify for the FTSE250. At £266m cap right now they are a decent way off the bottom of the index at £350m, however they really want to be at £400-500m before switching to reduce the risk of being demoted on a bad set of results.

At the end of the day, if they want investor engagement then run a capital markets day that clearly explains how the business model works today & what the commercial outlook is. Put up or shut up basically.

"The lack of Institutional engagement has been disappointing, despite management delivering colossal value year on year. Many AIM companies are questioning the market's future and the desirability of remaining listed"

I think this can be translated as the CEO wanted to sell some shares to satisfy 'institutional demand' but there was no interest. I don't blame II's given the lack of genuine strategic understanding we have on how the business model works over the long term and the number of regulatory moving parts.

I also think it is ridiculous to be complaining about a market that has re-rated his companies shares from £2 to £17 in a couple of years. And this is only a few years after a major accounting scandal which blew up all IPO investors.

Typical of the share price reaction when something has been downgraded & short sellers use it as an opportunity to ladder down the shares. Note JP Morgan announced a 0.53% short a couple of weeks back...

I'll have a go.

There is strong technical resistance at 770p (2021 highs), top of the gap down from the 2018 highs. If shares had opened way above that level they would have likely kept going as momentum buyers piled in. However, if you were holding shares outside a tax efficient wrapper and want to move them to a different jurisdiction / account before the divi is paid next year then today's prerogative was to hold the price down, calm the hysteria & get on with minimizing future tax charges.

The first order on the book was for 15k shares at 865p, then the sells started queuing up at 790p and the rest is history.

I'd also add that the leak yesterday & last month are classic signs that this was being 'managed' by larger shareholders to avoid a huge surprise upsetting the market technicals. It has been played to perfection.

Wonder if we can get a gap fill to 650p?

Must say the £11m short that Parvus have built is one of the most random I've seen in recent times. They had to add 550k shares yesterday just to stop shares breaking out of the 340p range, having also been adding heavily pre results. Whatever their thesis is it didn't include yesterday's update, do they continue adding to it now?

Their last foray above the 0.5% threshold was on Darktrace at £3 in mid 2023, they had to close in March 2024 when shares bounded over £4...

Not the sharpest of outfits IMO

Sensational trading update, smashing it out of the park!

With 5b shares to be issued at 4.8p, if even 5% flip their shares in the 5.5p region for a 15% profit then that's 250m shares to get through. My tuppence worth is that it's worth waiting for the ASX listing confirmation before taking a position, as I can't see it moving far until Australian institutional money can invest in their own currency. In the meantime it will be flipper central IMO.

No bad news? The founder leaving is pretty darn negative...

Good post Jungmana,

Here is the Pulsar RNS for anyone with one brain cell https://s203.q4cdn.com/212931576/files/doc_news/2024/06/jun-6-24.pdf

"Flow testing after clean up recorded a maximum rate of 821 thousand cubic feet per day (Mcf/d),

New laboratory results from produced gas confirm concentrations between 8.7 – 14.5% helium"

HE1 has flowed 834 cubic feet, so about 1% of what Pulsar did - go figure...

I think it's reprehensible that HE1 are allowed to release an RNS claiming that uses phrases like 'globally significant' 'huge milestone' etc. The LSE and FCA should be all over them, instead they happily let newbie's lose money

They have announced a flow rate of 834 standard cubic feet per day

1000 standard cubic feet is equivalent to 1 MCF

It takes a second to google what 1 MCF of Helium sells for - it is in the range of $300-800 depending on grade

So the current well produced a flow rate that would make them $700 a day max or $240k per annum. Taking the mid point of that selling price would mean revenue of less than $500 a day.

If the well costs $1.5m to drill, then it would take about 10 years to pay back!

And this is for a company worth £76m...

Seen it all before with UKOG etc, this will end up at 0.01p in a few years in my opinion.

This project flowed 0.03MCF and wasn't commercial; that's 30,000 cubic feet a day

https://nextinvestors.com/articles/gge-extends-helium-discovery-but-not-a-commercial-reservoir-yet/

No chance 834 cubic feet or 6176 cubic feet has a chance of making sense vs 30 development wells etc.

Heading back sub 1p again.

"£5.35b is a lot of money. I bet they walk away. Too much money...will drop then..."

It'll be an all share deal, that is obvious if you look at the REA Group balance sheet. So it's not about the cash, but about how much of the combined entity REA want to cede to RMV.

REA are valued at £14b on PAT of £150m! RMV is £5.5b on PAT of £200m, if REA offer RMV shareholders 50% of the combination then it looks very attractive to me. They also wouldn't have approached them if they didn't intend to make an offer which was significantly above the current share price.

Again, if they are on 60x and RMV on 27x then it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see where the value potentially lies.

The below comment sums up the difference between the LSE and other more successful markets like the ASX, NASDAQ and Scandiniviania.

The company that has bid for Rightmove is listed on the ASX.

Current share price is $207, down 5% on today's bid news. In early August they reported EPS of $3.49 for the year to 30/06/24, so their current PER is 60x

Rightmove meanwhile is on 21.5x this years forecast earnings, having effectively traded sideways since mid 2018. In that same period REA Group is up over 200%

Patient capital in the form of pension fund assets is needed ASAP to deter & offset parasite short selling outfits like the two who are currently short Rightmove (Kitbury Capital & Hawk Ridge). Why are they short RMV at 21x when an Australian rival trades at 3x their valuation?

Drip drip, the UK market is melting away...

Sellers are losing control of the order book at the moment, there is a 60k sell at 1.376, if that gets taken out then I fancy the gap at 156 to get filled pretty quickly. However, there is no doubt that this is a very difficult share to trade, so that order could be the trigger for the hedgies to sell another million or two and reinforce the obvious technical resistance

Positive call so far, CEO confirmed they are taking market share in the US & the analysts all seem very positive re. the US numbers. Will be surprised if this doesn't break out as it is a significant shift in what is their largest market.

There was huge demand in the opening auction, 4.1m buys vs 1.9m sells, hence the high opening UT. US rival Dicks is trading at 17.5x FY24 forecast earnings and reported 5.3% comparable growth in Q1, JD is at ~10x PE and reported 2.4% like for like & 8.3% organic growth, with US comparable sales up 5.7%. I can't see why JD is valued at such a discount to Dicks, from the short sellers point of view these numbers are surely a significant problem...

"but it's sheer stupidity to spend £10m on a buyback which contradicts their argument for paying off debts"

Would love to know what you think they can pay off given the balance sheet has zero debt... you want them to pay off their lease liabilities early?