Member Info for ShearClass

Yep, fully diluted share capital will be just under 3b. £150m market cap at 5p for what was formally Streaks AI and which was capitalised at just over £2m 10 days ago. Make it make sense...

It's zero surprise to me that the ASX offering apparently had such huge demand given some of the GGP forecasts that are currently in the market.

I.e. Canaccord have 1.9p EPS pencilled in for FY26, which commences in just 2 weeks time. That is based on gold production of 309koz, sales of 303koz, a gold price that averages $3126 and AISC of A$2500 (USD1630)

This compares to Greatland guidance released in April for FY26 production of 300-340koz at an AISC of A$2400-2600 and a current gold price that is ~10% higher.

So using the Cannacord numbers the forward PE is 8.3x at the ~15.8p ASX price.

If you pencil in 340koz production at a higher gold price & the same AISC then that multiple falls considerably

When you also adjust for their burgeoning cash balance + the underpinning value of Havieron then it looks quite silly

The ASX offering was nevertheless a key hurdle to get over. For me, it rubber stamps everything that we thought we knew and then some.

Lots to look forward to IMO.

2 pieces of positive read across news here today from peers;

1. SXS bid for at ~15x EV/EBITDA, considering they have around £500m net debt and declining sales this looks like a solid offer

2. Crane buying Baker Hughes' Precision Sensor & instrumentation business for ~17.5 EV/EBITDA; https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250606910787/en/Crane-Company-to-Acquire-Precision-Sensors-Instrumentation-from-Baker-Hughes-Company

At £19.10 OXIG is valued at ~11x LTM EV/EBITDA, so a share price of ~£25-30 would align them with peer M&A activity. Results tomorrow couldn't be timed better.

All IMO.

Was NT at 14.7p just before close for less than 200k shares which suggests stock is running out & the market makers will have to take it beyond 15p to create a market.

Bottom line is the Aussie book build will almost certainly have huge demand given GGP trades on ~6x forward earnings at the current gold price, nevertheless I've hedged my bets by applying for a large chunk whilst also buying on the open market. Doubt I'll get more than 25% of what I've applied for, but I know I'm paying the same as the Aussies which can't be a bad thing.

Re. Why is Regis cheaper than Genesis, Ramelius, Capricorn, Northern Star & Evolution?

1. It's major growth project, McPhillamys, was denied tailings dam approval last August, so is in regulatory limbo

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/nov/07/mcphillamys-goldmine-owner-regis-tanya-plibersek-legal-review-aboriginal-heritage-decision

No decision due until this December.

2. It owns 30% of Tropicana so has little influence over operations

3. Its only wholly owned operation, Duketon, had a quarterly AISC of A$2753 vs GGP at A$2126

But in my opinion Mcphillamy's is the main issue with Regis, although it's still up 105% YTD

Anything with West African operations trades at a significant discount for obvious reasons. Endeavour & Resolute are another two examples. On the other side of the coin you have producers that only operate in Tier 1 jurisdictions (Cananda & Aus), e.g. Agnico, Alamos, Northern Star etc. Then the ASX pure play mid caps like Ramelius, Genesis, Capricorn etc, who will be GRL's peers in the near term. The difference in valuations across these peer groups is stark

Pj70, Perseus is a West African gold producer, why is it comparable to GGP? Many Australian investors won't even consider investing in WA because they have so many Australia only producers to choose from (as per recent Argonaut comments)

The FCA should be all over this IMO. Not published accounts since last June, changed their name in January and extended their last accounting period due to the disposal of the esports nonsense & said the following;

Accordingly, the Company's updated financial calendar will now be as follows:

"Audited accounts for 1 October 2023 to 31 January 2025 are scheduled to be published by 31 May 2025.

· Unaudited Interim Accounts for 1 February to 31 July 2025 will be published by 31 October 2025."

Now we have another trading name & 3 days of absolute ramping drivel to attract the herd, 99% of whom will be completely unaware that the company will presumably be suspended at the end of this week if accounts aren't published.

On top of that there is the cash position, "Guild Esports' cash position was £25,000 as at 31 July 2024. The Company's confirmed liabilities until the end of September 2024 total £1.36 million, with accounts receivable amounting to £1.52 million." Last October they got £100k for the disposal, so what do they have left now?

It's crazy that they are allowed to ramp a new 5 year plan before accounts are published, just comical. And yet the FCA think BTC ETF's are dangerous...

Yep, all talk and no trousers at present. The biggest problem they have is convincing investors that their funds aren't going to end up purchasing some new blockchain / altcoin nonsense that has been their focus for the last 10 years. I note the CEO said Forza was COIN's treasury which gave me the impression that if they reached say 100BTC it could very well be raided to pay the wages & buy need things.

I just don't think they've thought through the Forza strategy very well at all. Surely they should have setup Coinsilium as the BTC treasury, created a new subsidiary & moved the blockchain stuff into that? That would also have meant that they could have already purchased the BTC, rather than waiting for Gibraltan approvals etc.

It just feels half baked versus well oiled competitors & a discerning investment community. Kind of like everything they appear to have done since their Dec 2015 IPO (when the market cap was about the same as now!)

Delighted that the market has taken the prospectus so well, kudos once again to Shaun & the board for the work that has gone into the execution. Feels a bit squeezy this morning, wonder if there are some offside hedgies that were betting on being able to buy back any short positions in a Newmont selldown?

"The Illustrative Offer Price of A$5.08 per Greatland Share represents GGP’s 5-day volume weighted average price (VWAP) up to and including 16 May 2025 of £0.1227, converted using an AUD:GBP exchange rate of 0.4830 published by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as at 16 May 2025 and assuming the 20 to 1 share consolidation has been effected upon the UK Scheme being implemented. The Illustrative Offer Price is being used for illustrative purposes only. The Final Offer Price may be set below, equal to, or above the Illustrative Offer Price. Refer to Section 6 for further details."

Also what SWC, ALTBG, Metaplanet etc evidence is that European & British authorities need to legalise BTC ETF's ASAP.

Money is flowing into BTC treasury vehicles which are essentially massively leveraged plays on the BTC price. Quite how the FCA think investors are better off buying a BTC treasury entity at 10x it's underlying NAV vs spot BTC in an ETF is anyone's guess...

I'm a fan of this company, however it's worth flagging a few things that pumpers won't talk about.

1. There are ~92m warrants in issue at an exercise price of 2.5p which can be exercised from next April

See page 136 of the prospectus;

https://investors.smarterwebcompany.co.uk/investors/_img/pdf/shareholder-circulars/AdmissionDocument.pdf

Given the share price rise it's almost certain these will be exercised and this has significant implications for any NAV / BTC calculations (I think you should use fully diluted share capital & assume all warrants will convert when they are in the money by >2000%)

Bottom line, even with existing share capital of 173.6m at 45p you are paying £78m (~936BTC) for an entity that holds 34BTC + ~£4m in cash. That is a NAV multiple of 10.8x and is frankly insane. Fully diluted the NAV multiple is over 21x by my calculations...

SWC have made a fantastic start to listed life, however the pressure is now on. They need to up the ante significantly and raise at least £10-20m above the last placing price of 27p to keep the momentum going. It's going to be a fascinating watch but hugely volatile.

As an example a French peer, ALTBG, topped out at €4 yesterday lunchtime (from €0.85c at the start of May) and went through 3 successive downward trading halts, closing at €2.25. This morning they are back up to €2.8. FWIW they have 245m fully diluted shares, so a market cap of €550 at last nights close. They hold 620BTC + have raised €30m this month, so will likely hold ~900BTC soon. So they opened at ~5.5x NAV and are now back to ~6.5x. They also raised €9m on Tuesday evening at €1.28 when shares closed at €2.9...

It's silly season and there is money to be made but when will the bubble burst?

Great post @Bramlaby, drowned out by the usual nonsense on here, most of which likely comes from market maker accounts designed to create confusion

I agree that the potential changes to Havieron production should have a substantial impact on any NAV / NPV and resultant broker target prices. I suspect we'll get a much clearer picture on potential impacts once we get on the ASX, the key question being how we plan to integrate the 3-5mtpa Havieron ore with existing Telfer output.

I've not attempted to model any impact on NPV as it's a moving feast with much of it being driven by the gold price and Telfer discoveries. I could see some value in being able to work on sensitivity analysis etc, however it's fairly obvious that the current market cap doesn't account for very much!

The bottom line is that we currently trade at ~3.5x EV/EBITDA using FY26 full year production forecasts and have a world class mine in development whilst owning world class infrastructure + a world class proven producer in Telfer.

Pure play Australian peers trade at a significantly higher multiple per my calculations (no investment advice);

Evolution has an A$17.5b market cap with A$1.6b net debt at the half year and generated A$1b underlying EBITDA in H125, so assume $2.5b for the full year and they trade on a 7.5x multiple

Genesis have an A$4.7b market cap with A$200m net cash at half year, they generated A$154m underlying EBITDA in H125, so assume A$350m for the full year and they trade on a multiple of ~12.5x

Capricorn metals have an A$3.9b market cap with A$300m net cash at half year, they generated A$95m EBITDA in H125, so assume A$250m for the full year and they trade on a multiple of ~14.5x

Northern Star have a A$27.5b market cap with net debt of A$200m at half year, they generated A$1.4b in underlying EBITDA in H1, so assume A$3.5b for the full year and they trade on a multiple of ~8x

There are several other mid cap producers like Ramelius who are merging with Spartan, Westgold that have production issues, however using the above 4 examples I get a blended EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.6x

So a base case price target for me would be 10x EV/EBITDA, which for next year would be ~10*£400m + cash of likely £500m. That is a share price of ~33p.

In a nutshell, I think we should sit above the main ASX mid cap pack but well below an Evolution / Northern Star, so ~A$9b market cap feels about right. No investment advice / DYOR, but to me

You mean AQUIS right? SWC isn't messy at all, clean as a whistle and backed by the best. After researching both it's like comparing chalk and cheese.

I agree with BOTAK, I was initially positive but having done more research this is a very messy setup indeed.

I had to laugh at the CEO accidentally using the word 'contaminate' in yesterdays interview, re. why they've setup a separate Gibraltar based entity to hold BTC treasuries rather than just buy them via COIN. And low and behold, as per this mornings RNS this company can't even buy BTC / hold BTC at present!

It's so ironic because COIN has been an abject failure vs the likes of KR1, nevermind MSTR, BTC or ETH.

One to avoid IMO, until they emphatically prove otherwise.

Have bought in here this afternoon. What I particularly like about COIN is that they are Crpyto industry veterans and have had an AQUIS listing since 2017. Each bull market has brought a huge rise here, in early 2018 they hit 20p and in 2021 35p, however they didn't ever have a day like today where 21m shares have been traded so far. SWC is clearly the reason & I applaud their CEO for having the cojones to inject some excitement into the small cap market. I suspect COIN will follow suit & is a lovely way to play BTC potentially breaking to new ATH's from the safety of an ISA.

It now looks like only a matter of time before the US & Switzerland agree a trade deal, based on that + today's very positive update I've bought in here. There will no doubt be some residual short sellers to clear, however I can't see any reason for being short here given shares are 30% lower than they traded after the half year results. Always the chance of either a cross listing on NASDAQ to improve liquidity or a take private offer from PE which would surely need to be in the £7-9 region to get shareholder approval.

Trump is an absolute godsend to market makers everywhere, they are always going to take advantage to the maximum extent. It's all about margin of safety with GGP and knowing what you own. Forecast a return to $2700 gold and 320k FY26 production and by my calculations we are still on a forward PE of less than 10. Will gold fall to $2700? Given the state of US debt it's hard to believe, plus the fact interest rates are falling worldwide which is always a tailwind for gold. Anything around the current gold price and that PE drops to between 6-7, which is comical versus peers, even before you attempt to account for Havieron.

Regardless, technicals do matter on liquid AIM stocks & I see the bottom of the medium term uptrend as more concrete support at ~11.5p, this is the same uptrend that was tested at the start of April (when it was at 10.2p). If it gets there then it'll be a load the boat moment IMO.

CWK deserves to shorted into oblivion after reading that article. Absolutely horrific. A PE 5 would seem about right, this stock is now more anti ESG than a new coal mine.