RE: New punt16 Dec 2025 15:26
Lots of buying here over the last week but still an overhang preventing shares from moving higher. That's fairly typical for AIM IPO's but once any stock does clear then the rise is often rapid as early buyers top up and new buyers are attracted by the momentum.
I also note that this was covered in the December issue of small company share watch as a new idea, with a more detailed tip to come at some stage in the future. There aren't forecasts on the market yet, but the SCSW piece did say that FY26 EPS forecasts are for 24.2p with 30.2p for FY27, and this is before any accretive acquisitions.
This is useful because we can use it in conjunction with the declared dividend policy from the admission doc to estimate yield at these levels;
"The Directors will adopt a progressive dividend policy which will reflect the long-term earnings and cashflow potential of the Group, whilst maintaining an appropriate level of dividend cover. Following Admission, the Group will target a dividend payout ratio of 50 per cent. of earnings after tax across an interim and final dividend each year."
So we are potentially looking at ~12p in FY26 rising to ~15p in FY27, which works out as a 5.8% yield at the current 205p share price rising to 7.3% in FY27.
Obviously these aren't official forecast numbers, however they tie in fairly well with 105m shares in issue & EBITDA levels.
My instinct is that a 3% yield would seem sensible for a buy & build story like this, backsolving using the dividend estimates above that provides a target price of 400p for FY26 and 500p for FY27.
DYOR research on these numbers of course, but if they are in the right ballpark then we have an apparently excellent margin of safety down here.
Ps. I've also taken a position in another new AIM IPO called Power Probe (PWR), also worth a look as it's confirmed as another solid dividend payer and growing very strongly. Again NAI / DYOR.
Great to have some decent small cap IPO's back after so long.
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