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Overheads are 9.407m re 6.807, an increase of 2.6m. Broker figures are guiding another 4m plus on that for 2022.

This was more than I was expecting, but is due to the big new offices, more staff, investment into marketing, digital, and also bad debt collection costs etc. As said, this is not a figure which can be reliably estimated going forwards = risk in getting forecasts wrong, which has just happened. Fortunately, there is very good transparency in forward revenues, which has protected (saved) a large downside risk in the sp - paper losses are minimal, on most recent additions 255p to 275p range.

Next update last year, was AGM trading update for the first 4 months. Should confirm very good revenue growth, but will need 1/2 year accounts to see the profit. Plenty of time and opportunity to add more, and at lower prices.

Well, dust settling at 261p per share, after a very messy set of accounts with too many one offs and non-cash unreal credits to the p&l, over-inflating and over-hyping the real profit (if any at all)! Clearly, many have sussed this and gone for the exit. The important thing to do is to look through the figures to gauge this year's results. But that's becoming a familiar story - a profit next year, that never seems to materialise!

Positive was a better gross margin percentage. If this trend continues into 2022, then very good. Negatives were higher than expected overheads and higher bad debt numbers. Bad debt will rise significantly with higher turnover, and is now not expected to fall as a percentage of turnover. Overheads going forwards also difficult to estimate.

Overall, my hoped for 'real' profit of about 1.5m was wiped out. 'Real' adjusted eps is about 4p - a big ouch, and fully explains sp movement, which is deserved, based on these results. Costs going forwards will be higher than my previous expectations, so seriously lowering the investment potential, and increasing the risk. However, having re-done the sums I am getting real eps forecasts for 2022 at the 25 - 35p mark (previously 40 - 60p). Broker is saying 18p, but admits their's are conservative, and they always underestimate here - hence, 30p sounds reasonable at the moment based on information available in the market. I can't see an energy supplier trading at over 20 times eps, even if growing, so 600p share price target, 12 months out is the best to go for now. Broker says 590p, but calculated by discounted cash flow. Maybe a coincidence, but gives some confidence to these valuations both ways.

Holders can look forwards to more months of sideways range trading, until next updates / results, when profits can be seen beyond doubt. Sensation de déjà-vu.

RE 16.3m shares in issue
There are almost 12m listed on company website - https://www.yugroupplc.com/major-shareholders/

Assuming there are a few other institutions? these would have to hold less than about 480,000 to get under the 3% threshold. Then this leaves PIs - what are people's views on what PIs hold - about 1.5 - 2m shares in total?

For the sp to rise, there must be a willing seller and a willing buyer, who agree on a higher price. PI traders can only push this up so far, before other traders dump out of it (the classic spike and fall). The question then becomes, how can an institution buy in at worthwhile scale, unless someone else sells out at scale? They can't. To be fair, the lack of free float concerns me, but in a bad way, whereas the consensus, here, is that it help push the price up.

Often, where there is strong institutional demand, with large director holdings, a director will sell some of their stake. Can't see this here till sp close to £10. BK would let go of say 500,000 to 1m shares.

Put simply, people can't buy what is not there available on the sell side - ie shares could remain under valued for quite some time to come.

Careful Sparky - late reported trade. Likely to be intra market maker trade to balance their books. I was expecting this following my buy this morning, as said in last post. Trading is looking dysfunctional today, due to total lack of liquidity and the mm are reluctant to hold stock, especially given recent moves down in the last few weeks - last thing a mm wants is to buy shares in this, and then forced to sell back to the market at a loss.

Tomorrow is looking likely to be a mess, trading wise. Could be spiked quickly, fall back quickly, or just freeze, if there is no stock available, no one will be able to trade. Institutions may also start to look in, which means current institutions will be 'obliged' to release some stock. Will be a very interesting day.

Not appropriate to gloat over that news. If correct, and they supply 20% of UK businesses, Yu is far, far, far too small to take it on. Report says little interest in taking it on - why? Customers will migrate to competitors anyway (Yu included). Sounds potentially serious, and would have to be nationalised, similar to Bulb, given its scale.

Results - bought this morning, not yet reported my trade (it's relatively big for this stock, but managed to get what I wanted in one scoop. MMs may also need to balance their book and source some stock). Expecting adjusted eps of 8 - 12p range tomorrow. At 300p it's on 30 times earnings. Normally that would be high for an energy supplier, but 2022 turnover should be near to £300m, and eps at 40p - 60p range. This is hopefully the last time that Yu goes unnoticed by the market. A jump to at least 400p (on the day) and then to 500p (in the week) will do me, thank you!

TD - unfortunately a dividend is unlikely, many US companies don't pay dividends and either hoard cash or do buybacks. Also, as TRMR is Israeli, a foreign withholding tax would be taken from the dividend, making dividends very unpalatable / inefficient for all shareholders (unless Israel resident).

TatT - We would all be disappointed to lose TRMR at £11, after all this time. Perhaps Tosca have become tired of waiting? But as I said in an earlier post, the current top holders are reluctant to sell in the market at this price on scale, which bars any other institution from buying in at scale, creating a dysfunction in the company's market price. No wonder PE is looking at TRMR. Sounds like Tosca would want £11 at least before they will sell down in the market, as the price rises from £11 thereafter. They would want a takeover premium on top of the £11, as the £11 is only 'fair' for the sector. And today the whole sector is arguably under valued (but to be expected given where the world is now). I would not place the Tosca note too firmly in the credible filing tray - a bit like Putin stating he had no intention of invading Ukraine.

TV news hard to watch at the mo, but if addicted to ad tec, DV results out, and they are giving Q1 guidance of 33% revenue growth, as of today, so seems little impact on US advertising, so far. Surprising?

https://twitter.com/PsychoStock/status/1500804592342376450/photo/1

May not work, but let's see?

Closing prices - 588,588, 534,484,499 - total is 2,693, average divided by 5 is 538.6 - add 5% is 565.53.

SP traded down to buy back level. The question then becomes, is there enough liquidity for the company to buy shares in a meaningful volume?

I think we'll get a very similar outcome as before - a gradually rising sp, with the company buying as much as it can - maybe 10,000 to 25,000 a day depending on volumes. Plus with consistent results each Q, the re-rating will come. Company likely to leave buy back in place for as long it is good value to do so - £75m will last a few years at that rate of accumulation!

A contributing factor is of course the make up of the share register. With big holders sitting tight, no new institutions can buy in at scale, unless a larger holder sells. And they won't be selling at such a low valuation, blocking new holders to get in - makes us an easy target for shorts. Catch 22 job.

To mimic Ben Graham - in the short term, the market is a slot machine, but in the longer term it's a cash machine.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/trmr/short-interest

Shorts up again to 15/02/22. US sp now almost back to mid November levels, so all shorts outstanding since then will be out of the money. Hence, with UK buy back and (you would think) shorts now having to close, all downside in sp trend has been removed. Short term share price moves are difficult to call correctly, so I think it's 50/50 whether this climbs slowly over the next few months or very quickly in a week or so and then trades flattish until next results. My chart skills are limited to using MAs of 20, 50, & 200 day (personal preference is exponential ma) and the 200 day is at the 600p mark - could be resistance and sideways trading in the 550 - 600 range until sp and MAs converge, before a prolonged uptrend is established. But as said, 50/50, may shoot back to £8.00 pretty darned quick.

See where we are next week after buy back kicks in (assuming the company is able to buy, given the 5% price rule).

Just for reference, FinnCap forecast CTV revenue of $20m Q1, $25m Q2 and $102m for full year 2022. Rising to $134m forecast 2023 - all on their proviso that these are conservative.

SP180 - appreciated. Thank you.

SP showing signs we may get to something in the sensible range. Ought to get at least 10 times EBITDA, ie $1.6bn. If the market adds on cash balance, then about $2bn. I think we're pushing our luck on getting 15 times EBITDA, but if another consistent beat at Q1 - who knows? By then the market may even begin to think putting us on a forwards rating, rather than historic! 2022, looking like the year patience here will finally be rewarded, but in this stock the sp has a will of its own.

Cautious, simplistic forecast for 2022 - net rev, plus 20%, say $360m, EBITDA margin, down a bit because of investment and back to office costs (being cautious), of 55%, so EBITDA of say a round $200m. If all's well, and VIDAA pays good, add at least $20m on to both figures.

Wouterius has posted some pretty good modelling figures in past - are you still reading the board, and if so could you post the figures you are modelling for year? Cheers.

Phil, you got me curious. I can see on the day's chart a down spike to £4.17 at 12:52 UK time. It was a mis trade for 10,000 shares which was immediately cancelled. Sure would've panicked me!!!

Don't follow, Phil. Prices look to be equal to me at about $14.00 and £5.20.

The volume on Nasdaq is looking very high, only half an hour into trading, and up. Never seen TRMR trade like this in a day - a very positive sign. EBITDA now over $160m. At only 10 times this is $1.6bn, and that excludes cash on balance sheet. The US investor base has shifted since IPO. This ought to correct the sp, however, Ukraine issues obviously a major concern, on many levels, very painful, on many levels.

Buyback was expected / hoped for. BUT most odd at $75m!!!!! They struggled to repurchase $10m last time over the same 6 month period. There is no chance in them spending $75m, lucky to get through even $12m. Bizarre announcement (size wise). Will clearly prevent material falls in price, but, as ever, upside is dependent on the rest of the market buying gradually, or else the 5% rule kicks in to stop the company itself being the buyer in the market that moves the sp up.

Outlook seems fine. CTV income suffering on comparatives, due to loss of LG data. Adjusting for no LG, CTV growth ex LG remains very strong. Nothing more to add - results speak for themselves.

83c in adj eps - compare this to TTD at 91c for the year. No further comment required - please do your own maths and cry to yourselves!

Last post before bed, Gdog
"The lack of sequential growth in CTV from Q2 to Q3 has me a bit concerned about TRMR. I pray to Money those concerns are laid to rest tomorrow."

This was all down to losing the LG data feed (acr) and loss of business to LG Ads. Their guidance on Q3 still was a beat, even after losing this income and profit - ie they allowed themselves a lot of slack - I hope the Q4 guidance was also made with that sort of margin for error in it (if so, the beat will be significant). Leverage in margin (for EBITDA) will amplify any revenue beat. I am expecting CTV revenue will be back on growth track too.

In case I am wrong, feel free to throw any spare egg my way!

And as yet, the 'market' hasn't made the correct differentiation between the various companies in the sector. It has Magnite pegged correctly now - time it pegged the right price on PERI and TRMR.

Are you staying up for TRMR results - 7am London time expected?

You're not thinking straight. Magnite did not own SpotX until part way through the year. What is pro forma growth expected for 2022? I'll leave you to do the maths.

Disagree Dog,
Revenue in line. Beat on EBITDA down to leverage in model, not in the guidance given (TRMR will also benefit from the same sort of guidance).

Outlook for Q1 is flat revenue, when you take account of SpotX, and EBITDA is only benefitting from synergy cost savings. Very sharp contrast to TTD outlook. Company's growth model seriously under question, esp after TTD has announced OpenPath, which cuts out the SSP in SPO move.

Cheers, Radium. Not looking good re sp following Ukraine developments.

I'd say the younger generations are very tec savvy. People born in the last 20 -25 years have been born into it and know nothing else. To some extent, they have brought their parents into it. Most folk under 45 - 50 are aware of the market and the pace of change. Doesn't mean they like it though! It's not good mentally, or for peace of mind. (Certainly not mine.)

Streaming sticks are old hat. They are a quick, cheap fix to make a non Smart TV smart. As people upgrade their TVs and move more to streaming, they get a smart TV, and the old TV and stick is on the tip. Next time you visit a council tip site, take a look in the old TVs and electronic kits skips - you will see large screen TVs, often smart, being replaced that are only 2 - 3 years old! I was shocked on seeing this waste recently, but it reflects the pace of change and constant need to upgrade - like mobile phones, and I'd even say cars now fall in this category, as cars become computers! Cars with wi-fi entertainment - streaming TV???? Keeping up with the Jones's!

You're right about Hisense. I believe they are a major shareholder in VIDAA, but don't know what % they have, or even if it's controlling (>50%). I would think that Hisense are free to use other OS, and VIDAA are free to go into other TV brands. According to the blurb, VIDAA are wanting to grow their tec quality, and market share of TVs they are in - as do all of them, of course. The brand name of the TV is now less important.

Very looking forward to Thursday.