Member Info for ShareNicelyNow

A year high price? It's the 6th of Jan!!! Odds on that this will be the year low price for 2022. Still buying here as funds allow.

Not sure what to expect from the coming trading update. I guess they will confirm annual turnover, but this will be close to expectations given the figures stated last month - so may not move the SP much as no new information? We shall see - markets like the proper numbers that go in sets of accounts, and this should set the stage for 2022 expectations? Would be nice if they could guide towards adjusted EBITDA for the year (give an estimated range) - that would remove all doubt about the bottom line profitability, which is where the buck stops - profits!

Needham Growth Conference - 10th January. (Perion also on the agenda)
https://investors.tremorinternational.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tremor-international-present-24th-annual-needham-growth

Steve Sottile, Unruly - https://www.beet.tv/2021/12/the-danger-of-tvs-new-walled-gardens-unrulys-sottile.html

Justin Fromm, LG Ads - https://www.beet.tv/2021/12/acr-data-see-through-walled-gardens-lg-ads-justin-fromm.html

Both covering ACR data and walled gardens in the OEMs (TV manufactures)

DoubleVerify selling their wares -
https://doubleverify.com/newsroom/holiday-ad-fraud-on-the-rise-ctv-advertising-threatened-as-fraud-on-unprotected-programmatic-ctv-inventory-reaches-almost-20/?news=1

This time regarding MediaMath (a DSP and has a significant DMP) and a sale to private equity or Magnite, to form a full stack like Tremor!

My understanding is that Magnite is in no position for a large deal - it has enough debt already re SpotX, which it overpaid for and has not yet integrated with Telaria's platform. SP too low now to use paper, as it did for SpotX. They also state their focus is increasing their supply side by going after a chunk of FreeWheel's business. Article therefore speculation.

However, it does cover some good points about the benefits of a full stack and that the market is strongly moving in this direction, confirming ODs various comments on this in recent webcasts and InvestorMeet. Also indicates that "private equity is long on ad tech at scale".

Well worth a full read through, as it is on the ball re the market consolidation trends, despite speculations on the future of MediaMath.

https://digiday.com/marketing/sources-mediamath-is-exploring-a-sale-magnite-and-pe-are-among-potential-acquirers/

Growth Company Investor update -
"Operationally Tremor is performing strongly with more upgrades following its third quarter results. Revenue grew 54% organically in the quarter, with the first nine months of the year up 93%. Video-related revenue accounted for 82% of this with connected televisions a key driver.

"There were further significant broker upgrades as a result with its Nomad now looking for 2021 eps of 71¢, which compares with a 25¢ forecast at the start of this year. The share price is another story, with the stock falling back to a six-month low in recent days.

"The board seems to have scored a few own goals on this front; so we have written to the chairman with some questions and will report back. An obvious reason for investor unease is ongoing director share sales from a board which argues its stock is undervalued. The US listing in June was meant to generate a rerating but was ill-thought out: Tremor ended up issuing new shares at a discount to raise £129m that it did not need. It also stopped buying back shares and is not paying a dividend despite a year-end net cash forecast of £260m which is a staggering 28% of its market cap.

"This is a cash-generative growth stock on a p/e of 12. It is either very cheap or something is not right.
Recommendation - BUY."
(SP at time of this update was 612p)

Website - https://www.growthcompany.co.uk/

Related video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9UznG0ZDi4 - 3:15 in

Webcasts for Q3, Raymond James and RBC are now archived and accessible on IR page
https://investors.tremorinternational.com/financial-results/reports-webcasts-presentations-circulars

Mb06 - I'm not yet worried (about the company and it's profit outlook), though am concerned about the SP. Can't see any one buying in until the fall has stopped, so the bottom is who knows where?

Magnite, in the meantime, $50m buyback - that's the way to do it!
https://investor.magnite.com/news-releases/news-release-details/magnite-announces-50-million-share-repurchase-program

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Vg4vdH44yI - 2:39 in

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-YPAG1M6dE - 14:03 in.
Seems to suggest that broker expectations for 2022 are around the £50m mark for revenue and that these are too low, given they are now doing over £1m in revenue a week and this will continue to grow throughout next year.

Starred out link in previous post was Vox Markets (but I am guessing most on here will have sussed that one).

"Revenues, profits, cash!"
Podcast - https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/equals-discusses-their-trading-update-which-exceeded-expectations-delivered-record-revenue-28b01e9

Pretty much in line with the consensus of expectations on this board (the CA guy was being too bullish / stretching the truth a little bit). But taking the £10m so far (ex the one off), divide by 9 weeks and times by 13 for the quarter is £14.5m. Payments are skewed to the month ends, so could be £15.5m for Q4, add in the one off, that's £17m for the quarter. That as a base for 2022, times by 4, is at least £68m revenue. As previously noted, still unnoticed by the market. When that comes SP will rise significantly from the current 70p (still can't break through this? Won't be long).

This year's EBITDA - more difficult to calculate. £6.5m to £8.5m range is as close as I can gauge. The majority of this is in H2, so looking like a very, very big jump in store for 2022 (twice this) - again, the market cannot see this coming (yet).

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/deliveroo-founder-shu-sells-47m-125818918.html

Deliveroo CEO sells £47m of shares to pay a tax bill. He is also rewarded with new shares worth £62.5m, "under the terms of his share agreement"

MCap - about £4.6 bn

https://tickeron.com/news/14965923?utm_source=stocktwits_free&utm_medium=news&utm_campaign=OPPORTUNITY_MISSED&utm_term=Stock_61658_TRMR_264d23b1-4631-43b4-91f8-33657c3071cf&utm_content=7772137

That's one part of the puzzle.

Trust all are safe this morning re UK storm. I'm on the North sea coast and still blowing bad now. The road is closed just down from the house, can't see round the corner out of my window, but probably a tree down, maybe a flattened car. Bit scary, feeling the whole building shaking.

Irrational markets - just thinking back to when the sp was at the £2.00 mark, we were doing $60m EBITDA. Now we are say $150 - $160, nearly three times as much. sp is relatively at the same point! Shares as cheap as they have ever been.

Previously - "Various concerns emerging about low stock levels for Black Friday, especially consumer electronics and gadgets, shortages of latest models due to supply chain - advertisers pulling back on ad spend - hitting ad tec stocks across the sector, concerns for Q4 earnings."

Now, despite fewer deals and some stock shortages, forecasters are saying total spend could be twice (yes that's twice) that of last year, when spending was supressed because of lockdown. If people are spending that big, then advertisers will be also, to ensure their share of this spend. What this means is that Q4 revenue for ad tec firms should be way, way up on the consensus, very cautious, guidance issued by the sector (based on fears of stock levels and 'tough' comps on last year's Q4). ie 'strong' performance as hinted at in last rns.

Bear in mind that that last Q4 was a record, what will they do this year, if consumer spending is up by so much? I think the sector wide sell off will prove unfounded.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59409507

Fair point Radium - they will need appropriate profit and loss account reserves.

No. If you re-read TD's post, quoting the relevant rns, there as a 6 month max time cap on the court's approval.

By the way, I think you all missed the covert trading update in the rns confirming press speculation.

Various concerns emerging about low stock levels for Black Friday, especially consumer electronics and gadgets, shortages of latest models due to supply chain - advertisers pulling back on ad spend - hitting ad tec stocks across the sector, concerns for Q4 earnings. Likely to be a combination of genuine selling, shorting and downward trend trading. Expect this to continue.

Ironically, BF does not alter overall demand, it just moves it forwards or backwards as people expect discounted deals. As retailers pull promotions, it may kill off BF for good???

If big shareholders want a buy back, we may get one. There is a big difference between buying back at 19, 20, 21 dollars, at just above the US listing price (which insults the new US investors) and buying back at $15 to $16 - which would benefit all shareholders - the old and new. If you look back to last time, the buyback was pre announced, but had to wait 6 weeks or so for court approval. Buy back a probability, but the discussions with the PE firm may have terms to trump all other options.

PE bid - not good for long term value. Also of note, in event of takeover all directors free shares to come over the next 3 years vest immediately - they'll be good for $100m plus depending on take over price - directors usually agree these sort of approaches!

Got a lot on their plate at the moment - all this, Alphonso, plus running a growing business in a fast paced sector. Nothing but hopes and prayers for a good outcome.

Also showing big volume spike on AIM, as well as price rise.

Up one dollar - looks like approx 150,000 ads bought. thereabouts.