Member Info for ShareNicelyNow

Napkin maths. Say £20m revenue in Q4. Growth of 10% per Q going forwards - Q1 £22m, Q2 £24.2m, Q3 £26.6, Q4 £29.3m.
Total for 2022 is at the £100m mark. EBITDA would be north of £30m. Valuation, say £30m times 20. It's massive and it's hidden to the market as yet. Last results only showed about 1.5m EBITDA (H1 2021).

I think the growth in Solutions also has a lag. We know each customer is circa (or more) than 0.5m in annual revenue. I think it unlikely that new customers will switch their entire spend over overnight, but do say 10% first as a trial and to bed in, then move more over to Equals, taking perhaps up to 6 months to fully transfer. I believe this is the reason for the explosion in the growth figures, month by month. A lot of growth is in the bag, but has not yet come through in the numbers.

Plus it's worthy of noting that it's recurring revenue. Once they have got a customer, customers are 'sticky'. Current shareholders have an advantage over the market - we can accumulate cheaply. I think I will shut up now - still buying! But pleasing to see other posters thinking along the same lines.

Per IR website, next update is w/c 10.01.22. I am almost certain that last time I looked there was also a December date given and Richard Cooper did mention a December trading update on a recent interview (**********). They may have to issue an impromptu update should trading be well ahead of expectations (a bit like a reverse profits warning).
https://www.equalsplc.com/content/investors/important-dates

I have rewatched the recent interviews. IST kind of smugly jokes / hiding a hint, that turnover is planned to double quite quickly. Makes me wonder. The CA guy is on record saying that he expects £50m this year, which means £21m in Q4. With little growth this is £25m in a quarter. It is not unimaginable that next year could be £100m revenue. Potential upside is massive.

This guy reviews Magnite and Trade Desk Earnings results. Apparently, he is personally invested in Tremor.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-phbVyObO8Y

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6I-_uCHYPrc

Generally sound and sensible commentaries.

You would think that any bad news is well priced into TRMR now. I am not expecting a rocket, nor any material fall. Having said that, shares tend to fall on bad news regardless. I think results will be about in line - I think they gave themselves room in the guidance for some unforeseens. This will cover any LG data loss in income for the most of Sept. Also, it is widely reported that chip shortages has caused reduced car production and sales - dealerships are not advertising and these are big TV ad spenders. This will continue into next year. Q4 guidance likely to be subdued because of both these issues.

Importantly, we will get clarity on the year as a whole, which has been missing. Even with these issues we should still be aiming for $140m EBITDA for the year, which is pretty much the same as Magnite. Magnite has a $700m + debt burden and is paying over $7m per quarter interest (over $28m per year, plus capital repayments). There has been a string of Tremor press releases of late indicating strong expansion for Tremor next year. The Vidaa tie up looks a master stroke, as now all OEM acr data disappears off market into the walled gardens of the TV manufactures.

It's impossible to predict the market. The loss of LG data is bad news. But plans for 2022 look exciting and the market cap is too low by any standard at $1.4bn, given year end cash will be around $400m. That is an enterprise value of $1bn for $140m EBITDA. You would think that downside risk in the share price is low - but markets are markets.

The question is - is the buying opportunity now at 675p ish or lower price on results.

https://www.adexchanger.com/ad-exchange-news/the-marketers-guide-to-acr-tech-in-smart-tvs/

https://www.adexchanger.com/tv-2/the-rise-of-the-walled-gardens-around-acr-tech-in-smart-tvs/

https://ir.doubleverify.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/164/tremor-international-taps-doubleverify-for-authentic-brand

This is the same (top of range) DV product that the major DSPs use, including Trade Desk, Google, Amazon, Verizon & MediaMath.

See slide 4 - https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_364d014eee92a818c110f61f663eda3c/doubleverify/db/1111/9770/file/DV+Earnings+Call+Slides.pdf

CA AGM is 22nd November. It includes their continuation vote. Given the news flow from CA, I would wager on this being passed. Though CA have sold small amounts, I cannot see them divesting a big chunk until the SP better reflects true value.

I am now adding substantially. All trades over the last 3 days showing as sells, as I have got them at below the mid point of the spread. Hope my big buys (showing as sells) have not influenced holders to sell! I have had no problem buying, even at 25,000 shares at a time. A good time to accumulate as now next news (TU) not expected until January.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdNco8HegVk&t=1s - 26.05 in

Couldn't put it better myself. This is no longer a business aimed at the SME sector. Both the solutions and corporate expense parts of Equals are for large corporates. This business has morphed again, from retail customers, to SMEs to large corporates. In fact, it still serves retail and SMEs, it does the lot. A top of the range platform business, with the latest ultra modern bank grade tec -- clearly designed to target top notch major customers. Much, much more to come from this stock.

Apps - Digital Turbine - 02.11. after market
AcuityAds - 03.11. Before market
Magnite - 03.11. After market
Roku - 03.11. after market
Trade Desk - 08.11. before market
Pubmatic - 09.11. After market
Double Verify - 09.11. after market
DSP - Viant - 09.11. after market
IAS - 10.11. after market
TRMR - 11.11 before market

In my mind and in my car.
We can't rewind, we've come too far.
Pictures came and broke my heart - put the blame on V C R
(Kill the Radio Star)
Joke's aside ... a very beautiful performance ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUgF49Rtg7Q

Perion conference call good to go. Comments that Snap warnings don't apply to them. They admit guidance isn't really guidance, but a 'floor', in that earnings will be at least as stated plus some. Mcap now over $1bn. TRMR, could / should be heading for $3bn on a comparable valuation. (Approx $150m EBITDA times 20)

ps. By my maths, Snap is on 200 times ($450m EBITDA expected and a $90bn Mcap)

https://hisense.com.au/blog/hisense-vidaa-4-ready-to-launch/
"Smart search function
VIDAA 4 allows you to find what you want to watch with ease thanks to its universal search functionality, while its intelligent interface will also learn your viewing habits and offer suggestions from the main interface. The more you watch, the more your TV will learn and the better your content will become. "

https://www.whathifi.com/news/disney-is-coming-to-hisense-and-toshiba-tvs-with-the-vidaa-smart-platform

All pretty standard stuff really for modern Smart TVs. You are all aware of the news from Sky? (re their Glass TVs)
https://www.sky.com/glass - owned by Comcast who own the massive SSP FreeWheel. I think Comcast are launching a TV set as well in the States. All attempts at forming walled gardens - if you want to advertise on our TV set you have to use our DSP and if you want to advertise in our programmes you have to use our SSP. Advertisers prefer the open internet.

https://www.getpublica.com/blog/ctv-walled-gardens-rising-trends-the-state-of-ctv-targeting-2-2

In view of today's RNS, Re - posted from 26.05.21

Alphonso is basically Smart TV tracking software. Magnite announced they have partnered with Samba (a competitor)

"It can be a cutthroat business. Samba has sued Alphonso for patent infringement. Last year, Vizio paid $2.2 million to settle claims by the Federal Trade Commission and the state of New Jersey that it was collecting and selling viewing data from millions of smart TVs without the knowledge or consent of set owners. In December, The New York Times reported that Alphonso was using gaming apps to gain access to smartphone microphones and listen for audio signals in TV ads and shows."
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/05/business/media/tv-viewer-tracking.html

Samba TV - https://samba.tv/

Re Alphonso - https://onezero.medium.com/https-medium-com-sarveshmathi-alphonso-the-software-listening-to-everything-you-watch-d2918d52ba43-bb627477bccc

and - https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210106005916/en/LG-Acquires-Controlling-Stake-in-TV-Data-and-Measurement-Firm-Alphonso

Tremor, being unique in having a full stack, including a full data management platform, is bringing more of the data side in house. The plan being to be more efficient, to be more profitable for Tremor (its profit margins are bigger) and better for customers - should be cheaper and they are optimizing the supply path - less companies sat in the middle between advertiser and publisher, all wanting a cut of advertisers' budgets. Parts of adtech are a dirty business - parts that Tremor is not willing to engage in.

See previous post re 1st Q results - Tremor's growth rate is the highest in the sector and it has the highest margins. Its model is unique - hence, my distaste of the word peer. The last peer I saw was on a trip to Blackpool.

Yes. eg if you are referring to stuff like Samba - see here

https://rethinkresearch.biz/articles/samba-tv-pins-audience-movements-acr-technology/

https://www.sony.com/electronics/support/articles/00151645

My router also lets me disable this sort of thing - log directly into your router and go into settings.

Hi Gdog - I think the general point of what I was trying to say was that there were no indications of any thing being wrong, no downgrades or warnings, along the lines of Snap.

Totally agree re their guidance always being low. I've heard some analysts taking them to task over it too.

Perion updated their guidance last on 4th October on announcing the Vidazoo acquisition. They gave guidance for the whole of 2021 and also for the whole of 2022. Both were increased, 2022 substantially so. They stated on the conference call that with the acquisition, and with the increase in scale that it brought them, that they could more accurately forecast their revenue and earnings figures with a greater confidence. They are very confident of continued growth (or at least they were at the beginning of October)

An interesting earnings season ahead.

https://wp-cdn.perion.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/07180542/IR-presentation-07102021.pdf (Guidance at slide 31)

Very much appreciated, Harry.

Interesting to see this year's expectations of revenue. I have £43m pencilled in - ie to date total plus £14m in Q4 (minimum). CA will have 'inside information'. A total of £50m means Q4 revenue of £21m, which is £1.6m per week. They did £1.25m per week in the last two weeks of Q3. Given travel coming back on line, that Q4 is often the busiest Q, and continued very strong growth from Solutions as customers come on board (and then gradually swap their business over to EQLS, meaning a lot of growth here is waiting in the wings) this is a possibility (though I would thought remote). However, CA ought to be more in the know than me! Translates into another £3m EBITDA . . . (insert expletive of your choice).

At this rate, SP will be in the 300 to 400p range 18 months out! Likewise, any takeover offer will have to be pitched on a multiple of current SP.

Exactly, Gdog. Looking at the SpearAd site, looks like they know what they're about, so hopefully some good talent and tec engineers brought on board.

"The company is driven by industry veterans Erhard Neumann, Mark Thielen and Ivan Guzenko, who are digital advertising and technology pioneers with extensive experience in running high scale mission critical ad management systems. While Neumann and Thielen co-founded ADTECH AG, which was later acquired by AOL to become its core adserver, Guzenko is a pioneer in the programmatic field having run Smartyads, Inc. for over 7 years."

Also, a super cheap price (Suggests SpearAd is loss making, but then so was Unruly). Magnite only paid $31m for SpringServe. Publica went to IAS for $220m and Perion got Vidazoo for $94m, estimated to do $8m EBITDA this year.

https://www.getpublica.com/blog/integral-ad-science-acquires-connected-tv-advertising-leader-publica

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/perion-expands-publisher-technology-offering-060000512.html

A typical Tremor acquisition - cheap, but good tec and staff, who are too small to survive as an independent, which can be very quickly leveraged through Tremor's existing stack, to significantly increase revenue and profit margins.

ps - nice to finally see some life in Perion's SP, should anyone be invested there!

Cheers Morbox. Yes, should see a bit of travel come back in Q4. Then 2022 will be the year this stock gets put on the map, with turbo charged growth on all fronts.

Well, a very large increase in turnover there, unexpected and the effect on bottom line clearly lost on the market. Will probably have to wait till we get EBITDA figures for the SP to react properly - this gives current holders an advantage who can increase here at bargain prices. New investors unlikely to come on board in any meaningful way before results in March 2022.

We previously had £9.2m revenue for about 11 weeks of Q3. Now we have £11.7m - £2.5m of revenue in the last two weeks, ie say £1.2m per week - annualised is over £60m. Admittedly a simplistic analysis, for example business tend to pay out a lot at month ends and quarter ends in their invoicing / payment cycles so unfair to extrapolate like this. Nonetheless, a significant increase in growth, even if not now at an annual ‘run rate’ of £60m. (But then again, we will be approaching this, certainly now over the £50m mark, annualised). Gross margin is 60%, so some where near 50% (allowing for some increase on O/hs) drops to bottom line.

EBITDA now modelling out north of £6m for this year, with a very good chance it will be over £7m. For next year, EBITDA should be in the £15 - £20m range. I reckon this has potential to become a £300m to £400m MCap stock 12 to 18 months out (currently about £115m). Multi-bagger! SP targets of the 100p mark following results next March look very achievable.

Not sure how much of this is new news, but posted as a press release on Tremor Video website, 7th Oct.
https://www.tremorvideo.com/company/press-releases/programmatic-tv-marketplace-launch/

Sounds like developments to their DSP side, to maybe go after Trade Desk and Google DSP type of clients?

On Vox Markets, if not already picked up on - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dZc1SR1qjE

Also, presenting on the Investor Meet site on Friday, free to register - https://www.equalsplc.com/content/news/rnsreacharchive/2021/130921

Third quarter figures are exceptional, and pro rata the £9.2m up (divide by 5 (half months), times by 6) gives £11m for the quarter, and things are growing quickly on all fronts (bar travel)! Rebound in travel still to come. Equals Solutions is a game changer, and from a standing start from the end of June has done £1.2m - growing strongly with good 'pipeline'. I have more to post on this, but time pressured at the moment. But, suffice to say, Equals Solutions is worth the current share price alone, therefore the old core business in all in for free. The market reaction and broker targets of the 100p mark appear to be validating my own thoughts and modelling for the business going forwards.

A very clear hold to see this through to the end. SP will rise strongly as profits on Solutions come in, rise further on a re-rating and likely to be a takeover target, at a significant premium to the SP when that time comes.