Member Info for ShareNicelyNow

As expected then! See last post -
"Expect a full Q2 / H1 set of accounts some time August - say in the 2nd or 3rd week"

That's how to manage expectations.

Whilst on the subject, over the last 2 to 3 years the company has got a lot better at managing expectations and I think will continue to get better still. We will see this demonstrated in the forthcoming set of results. As previously posted - " Given Q1 and all trends from others in sector, Q2 EBITDA should be north of $35m. In fact I have more 'pencilled in'. "

I have a Dickens feeling on this - Great Expectations!

I have no expectations re the SP, other than that 'the market' will eventually get it in to about the right range.

Good to see your confidence, Qwerty. Back in June you posted "I own 3,300 shares,I see it's about to go green on the Nasdaq."

You now have 100k? I assume the 100k is pounds and not the number of shares! Either way, you have been buying and so are confident. Or perhaps just trading it! No need for panic until definite news from the company, from the horse's mouth rather than from the horse's ar,se. Expect a full Q2 / H1 set of accounts some time August - say in the 2nd or 3rd week, give or take a week either side!!!!!

Investor Relations Q & A sheet
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Tremor-IR-QA-FINAL-v2.pdf

If Q2 results are sh*t, then they would have pulled the IPO.

Qwerty, stop sulking and stropping about the daily share price movements. All the ad tec stocks were down today - look at where ATY is now since it IPO'd on Nasdaq (be glad you're not them). PUBM and MGNI also trending down. Now on Nasdaq - therefore expect to move with the sector on days like this and expect much more volatility in price than what we had on AIM alone. SPs in these companies are moving by $2 & $3 a day on most days. I don't care for this much myself, but its Nasdaq and I will learn to live with it.

Some light bedtime reading here - he's underdone the sarcasm IMO - https://twitter.com/Yield_Fanatic/status/1415694685134282754

Analysts are worthless. They did $70m revenue in Q1 - the lowest Q. A seven year old can do 4 times 7 and get 28. ie. at least $280m full year revenue. Analyst forecasts are for $268m, $273m and $261m, with one out on a limb going for $310m. And these guys have been given millions in fees as underwriters! These guys are still in kindergarten!

Remember that Fincap's last target price was £12. The yanks need to do better.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/analysts-initiate-coverage-tremor-international-135853760.html

Worth another look on here - they have all worked it out now!

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/TRMR/social-media/

They also seem to better understand the QUIET PERIOD. Quiet period for the company ends 28.07.21. The under-writers research note embargo ends 13.07.21 (though one poster has it as 12.07.21). Therefore, expect US broker notes early next week. Expect nothing from company until at least end of July - likely to be full Q2 / H1 accounts rather than a trading statement. Don't blame me if it's wrong - it's the US posters on StockTwits!

"Ends: 13-Jul-21 | Co: TRMR Tremor (Nasdaq) | Developer of a software platform that enables advertisers to reach relevant audiences and publishers to maximize yield | Opened: 18-Jun-21, $19.00 | Priced: $19.00 | Underwriters: Lead: RBC Capital Markets, Stifel, JMP Securities, Needham & Co., Raymond James | "

I expect the underwriters have now exercised their option to buy the additional 1m ads and expect an RNS to this effect. They will have been selling these in the market over the last two weeks or so, hence, keeping the US price down. They will have had to get these shares away before issuing their notes. If they have done their job well (as underwriters) SP should now now move to a valuation based on fundamentals. By this I mean around 20 times forward adjusted EBITDA - say 20 * $150m. Twice current share price is short term target. (Well, we can all but go on with our dream!)

After the quiet period comes the ... ... ... riot period - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htobTBlCvUU

IST video interview with Paul Hill (Vox Markets) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6Y2_899ZSA&t=1s

Trading statement here - https://www.equalsplc.com/content/news/archive/2021/080721

Sounds like SpringServe does a similar job to Innovid (due to IPO via a SPAC later in year - see previous posts).

Also, a company called Get Publica, which Tremor / Unruly work with - https://unruly.co/news/article/2020/11/09/unruly-and-publica-partner-in-global-deal-that-provides-ctv-ott-publishers-with-comprehensive-self-service-monetization-platform/

An awful lot of tec involved in this space, all inter-connected. The bigger and more complicated it gets, and with consolidation, I think the door is closing on new entrants. With who's left in, there will be winners and losers. Most of us are just in TRMR on here. The big winners so far, and the highest rated, are TTD and DV. If TRMR comes through, should be a winner as it's operating metrics smash the others, with a full stack model.

https://getpublica.com/

Qwertyii - No, Mithaq first appeared with over 3% back in 2019. They were buying throughout 2019 at well below 200p. Having recently bought a big chunk off Tosca, this has pushed up their average to £3.60!

Hopefully, now have a good number of US institutions, none of which are over 3%. For instance, if each has invested say $10m to $30m there may be 6 to 10 of them there. There were 5 advisers on the IPO - they must have got at least 1 institution each on board, even with the fiasco pricing (you would think)!

Item 4. Purpose of Transaction
Mithaq Capital SPC acquired the Shares for investment, and the purchase of any additional Shares also will be for investment. The Reporting Persons or their representatives may speak with the Issuer's representatives regarding the Issuer's strategy, governance and business and operations. In addition, the Reporting Persons may engage in communications regarding the items above with other shareholders of the Issuer, knowledgeable industry or market observers, industry participants, or other persons.

Mithaq Capital SPC intends to review its investment in the Issuer on an ongoing basis. Mithaq Capital SPC may take a number of actions to maximize the value of its investment, including increasing or decreasing the size of its investment in the Issuer, although it has no present intention to increase its ownership to 25% or more of the outstanding Shares. The actions taken by Mithaq Capital SPC to maximize the value of its investment will depend upon numerous factors, including, among other things, the price and availability of securities of the Issuer; subsequent developments affecting the Issuer; the Issuer's business and prospects; general stock market and money market and economic conditions; tax considerations; ongoing evaluation of the Issuer's business, financial condition, operations, prospects and strategic alternatives; the relative attractiveness of alternative business and investment opportunities; the attitudes and actions of the board of directors and management of the Issuer; and other factors deemed relevant.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001849396/000141588921003270/formsc13d-06302021_120653.htm

Confirms that major institutional shareholders have on going dialogue with companies and also each other. I have heard Andy Brough confess to this - he mentioned agreeing with Tosca that he and Tosca would both sell an equal number of shares in a company to a third institution who was wanting to build a position (and effectively at what price). Not sure from memory, I think it was Studio Retail.

Link also shows that Mithaq total cost is GBP £114,430,130 - average of £3.60 per share.

Signs of fledgling US PIs interest in TRMR -

Swick02 Jun. 24 at 4:36 PM
@humour I’d throw $TRMR into the mix as a must own in the ad tech space. They’re video and CTV focused, with organic growth rates well surpassing $MGNI and even $TTD, with EBITDA margins in the 40% range. They operate a leading CTV SSP, unruly, in addition to have a DSP with many self-serve features. They reported Q1 revenue growth of 96%, all organic, with a 44% EBITDA margin. Q2 growth will be well over 100% as compared to COVID-impacted quarters. Best part is, you get all this and pay 5.3x trailing revenue and 13.1x trailing EBITDA. If they hit my 2021 targets, it’s 3.5x 2021 revenue and 7x 2021 EBITDA. For comparison, $MGNI trades at 14x pro forma trailing revenue and 56x trailing EBITDA. IMO Tremor is an easy double and perhaps triple from the current price just to get the valuation metrics close to its peers. With the US IPO last week, much easier for US investors to now get exposure 17 Read the full conversation · Reply

disruptorinvesting Jun. 28 at 11:19 PM
$TRMR Although it’s Israeli based, 89% of revenue comes from the US. Recent IPO. Video & CTV focused. Exclusive with News Corp. End to end self-serve platform. Misunderstood. Under appreciated opportunity. This is going to RIP once cognition sets in. LONG: $18.99 June 28, 2021 1 Read the full conversation · Reply

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/TRMR/social-media/

Stt1 - the valuation is more than hype. It is absolutely absurd. How can they possibly be worth the same as TRMR? TRMR are on target for upwards of $150m EBITDA this year - ten times Innovid forecast. We agree on something!

As for Unruly, it was losing $9m a year when TRMR bought it, hence the low price, at the time. BUT, also, News Corp did not receive cash - they got shares in TRMR and guaranteed ad spend. What are the shares they got in TRMR worth now? How much did News Corp receive for TRMR? Rather more than the historical figure you are suggesting, based on your link. You really need to stop insulting other people's intelligence. And for that matter, your own.

For general reference, you may wish to look at this company's presentation to deepen knowledge on the ad tec system and for a laugh (or not, as the case may be) a look at the valuation that they are claiming for themselves.

Innovid are not a DSP or SSP. They run the servers which hold the video stream of the adverts - they serve up the ad to CTV sets when called to do so by the CTV app and appear to be market dominant. Their revenue is low - they get only 30 cents for every 1,000 adverts served. Forecast revenues are 2021 - $94.8m and 2022 - $130m and forecast EBITDA is 2021 - $7.2m and 2022 - $15.6m. They compare themselves to The TradeDesk and DoubleVerify and therefore are claiming a similar valuation in the order of 10 times revenue and 100 times EBITDA of $1.3 billion - about the same as TRMR is presently.

https://info.innovid.com/hubfs/Investor-Resources/Innovid_Investor-Presentation_(06.22.21).pdf

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtsuFc7cpnw

The presentation does contain useful insights into the growth of CTV as cord cutting continues. Despite the fall in our SP, I don't think we have anything to worry about.

Doesn't impact CTV anyway... but 1 yr breathing space for ad tech. - A positive comment from stt1. As previously discussed on here, the issue of cookies has little, if any, effect on TRMR.

"Those stocks had seen significant declines when Google first talked about blocking cookies, but interestingly, both those drops and today's gains reflect a fundamental misunderstanding of the way programmatic advertising works."
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/24/4-soaring-nasdaq-stocks-just-got-unexpected-gift/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

More competition - Innovid to IPO

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/24/innovid-tv-ad-tech-company-going-public-via-spac-.html

https://www.innovid.com/

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/06/24/2252484/0/en/Innovid-a-Global-Leader-In-Connected-TV-Ad-Delivery-and-Measurement-to-Become-Publicly-Listed-at-an-Implied-1-3-Billion-Valuation-via-a-Merger-with-ION-Acquisition-Corp-2-Ltd.html

Large short interest closing - 55% of float

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PUBM/short-interest/

Magnite and TTD also shorted - must be news going against the shorts or maybe a bid by TTD for PUB? - to form a full stack model. LO very L.

Cookies delayed until 2023 - https://www.reuters.com/technology/google-delays-chromes-blocking-tracking-cookies-late-2023-2021-06-24/

Radium - thank you for interrupting my quiet time! Yes, I am also not 100% certain. See my previous 3 posts exchanging discussion with GSmiley. My post contained this gem "it's a large share offering. May need a big discount to shift them." A very big ouch there!

Any way, for now I have subordinated myself to Mr Smiley's understanding of the rules. Does not mean to say we are right. For certain - full accounts for Q2 / H1 will not be till mid to late August. A trading update before then? Clearly, none of us knows for certain. Perhaps we should contact IR for clarity.

Interview with OD. Of note - they lost in the region of 1/4 of their revenue last year due to Covid, in H1. My calcs are that this would be about $40 to $45m in lost EBITDA. Draw your own conclusions as to where this year's figures will turn out to be.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3707850-tremor-international-stock-sinks-after-ipo-but-ceo-not-worried

As for the IPO fiasco - I have various thoughts and views on it. The underwriters are clearly left sitting on unallocated stock which they are having to dump on the market. The situation will not right itself now until Q2 / H2 results - at least 40 days 'quiet period'. Late July at the earliest, more likely mid August. I think we all could do with some quiet too.

GSmiley, Thank you for the clarification.

Confusing me Mr Smiley. Period end is June. Do you mean we'll get an update before end of June - like tomorrow morning with IPO priced? I booking hope so! It's killing me not knowing. Given Q1 and all trends from others in sector, Q2 EBITDA should be north of $35m. In fact I have more 'pencilled in'.

If I was a US institution and TRMR wants me to invest say $20m - $$40m, the first question I would ask them is what are Q2 numbers or else I won't invest. They must have been told! It's about time they let the rest of us know.