Member Info for ShareNicelyNow

Dog,
how can one in every two sales be someone selling short? What about the trades that were buys and the trades that were sales by normal holders. I think your terminology of long volume and short volume is what we over here simply call the buy and sell volume for the day. (it's an estimate any way, but surprising how many PIs believe in it). Obviously, any actual short selling is just part of the sell volume. Likewise, any shorts closing is part on the buy volume.
https://www.thebalance.com/day-trading-based-on-buying-volume-and-selling-volume-1031209

Other terms for the same thing are accumulation (buy) and distribution (sell). Used in TA to give buy to sell ratios, or accumulation / distribution indicator. The Americans call it long to short ratio - in your context, short simply means a sell trade.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/accumulationdistribution.asp

This is getting beyond 'crazy' - it's insane. I've listened again to the Investor Meet Q & A and gone through the Q3 presentation figures, in particular the appendix slides with all the reconciliations on, with percentage changes on last year. Really stunning figures - you can see the shock of the directors, clearly expecting an uplift in the SP, and deservingly so. And we are where we are!

Allowing for the margin adjustment in Q4 guidance, plus a little beat on revenue, we are looking at $55m plus EBITDA Q4 and full year EBITDA in the $160m - $165m range. EPS about 80 cents US - 80c, so that's $1.60 per ad. Ads now priced at $16 - we are on a PE ratio of 10! For a tec company growing at this rate? Crazy, insane.

OD kind of sounds Churchillian at the end of the Q&A - fight them on the beaches, landing grounds, in the fields and the streets. Never surrender!

Typo - 16.19!

Gdog,
sympathy or not, a rather a freaky close at US$19.19 - about bang on UK £6.00 exactly. The market is somehow sub consciously aware of the ex rate??? !!!!

Don't you get a lot of buyers of stock on margin in the States? If they're getting stung for cash calls won't this push them into being forced sellers? It's all I can think of. A lot of small holders selling out on panic, letting the SP be the deciding factor rather than fundamentals. Something has really spooked holders to get out. Throwing their money away.

I think you do right, Gdog.

From my side of the fence, any thing under £6.50 is a screaming gift.

Hi Rusty, re the Tosca rns.

Yes, seems a bit odd. These forms aren't easy to read for us mere mortals. Looks like they now have 12.7m normal shares and 6.7m more by way an 'instrument'. Previous disclosure in June, was 19.4m shares plus 1m shares in ads. Overall, looks like 1m shares less. The 'instrument' is referencing ads - that's getting on for nearly half the ads that were listed! Hence, my guess would be that they are planning to convert some of their UK normal shares into ads so they can trade these in the states to US investors. Interesting that it is dated 11.11.21 - day of Q3 results. Perhaps both the company and Tosca were expecting a large upward movement in the share price, with Tosca planning to sell a few into the rise (that never was).

OD refers to rumours of a profit warning circulating in 'the industry' the day after - 12.11.21 - at the end of yesterday's web presentation. I take that to mean the ad tec industry in the States. Probably all connected? Strongly believe it's all unfounded and in time it will pass.

I did also did in fact email my questions to Investor Meet beforehand and sent them in live via the webcast. I also asked whether a buy back would be appropriate. The answer to that was basically yes, but dependent on other needs for cash such as acquisitions, working capital and capital investment in technology, and also that is was too early do do so since listing on Nasdaq (you can hardly ask the market for new cash and then spend it on giving it back to the market). They stated they were advised against it for the moment.

They also indicated that many people were on the webcast (probably a high turnout for Investor Meet) and were genuinely grateful for feedback and support from private investors. They also acknowledged the shareholders who were long term and are aware that many of us have been invested for a good number of years - I think that they valued and appreciated that too - ie us lot.

Investors Meet is free to register - no tricks, no hidden charges, no marketing spam. The webcast is archived and can be watched again, or watched for the first time if you were unable to attend.

RBC conference webcast is tonight - 8.20pm UK - link in RNS
https://investors.tremorinternational.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tremor-international-tremor-present-rbc-global-timt-conference

Thanks to all who submitted questions. My sympathy to Rusty, I'm in the same boat, lost Mum earlier in the year too. Not a good feeling.

This just in from Jeff Green - https://givingpledge.org/Pledger.aspx?id=430

Take a look at their share based payments. I'm torn between being a realist and accepting it and trying to live in utopia and throwing up.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/trade-desk-ceo-jeff-green-152200649.html

As expected, a re run through of the CC slides. A very long wafffley first answer, but then he did at least tackle all the questions I asked and then some. Also, he gave the answers I half expected - given a court battle is in play he is limited in what can be said, and he has to follow general corporate speak and diplomacy. Some will think his answers did not go far enough, bordering on BS, but I think he went further than most CEOs would and appeared genuinely upset by the market reaction (SP) and the barrage of angry SH emails.

The loss of the LG data income is significant to the CTV income in the immediate short term, but not significant to the overall size of the company, allowing results to still beat guidance, therefore no market disclosure was required, and the Vidda deal is far better - roll that one on. Though, it still should have been directly referenced in the earnings call - and I think that is the crux of it.

Unfortunately, another 3 to 6 month wait for the SP to catch up with earnings and cash flow.

Feedback I left -
"Thank you to the board for doing this and taking some quite difficult questions from private shareholders. It is clear that the board is disappointed and even upset at the stock price performance, just as much as the loyal shareholders are. The shares rose immediately on the Q3 earnings report, based on bottom line excellent figures. I believe it was the perceptions about a decline in CTV income that has caused the concern and led to some shareholders selling out. I share the board's upset over how all their hard work in building the company up has not been properly understood and appreciated."
(note the language and diplomacy, but they can read between the lines)

Extracts from 05.11.21 post -
You would think that any bad news is well priced into TRMR now. I am not expecting a rocket, nor any material fall. Having said that, shares tend to fall on bad news regardless.

Importantly, we will get clarity on the year as a whole, which has been missing. Even with these issues we should still be aiming for $140m EBITDA for the year,

It's impossible to predict the market. The loss of LG data is bad news. But plans for 2022 look exciting and the market cap is too low by any standard at $1.4bn, given year end cash will be around $400m. That is an enterprise value of $1bn for $140m EBITDA. You would think that downside risk in the share price is low - but markets are markets.

The question is - is the buying opportunity now at 675p ish or lower price on results.

The answer - buying opportunity is now. I think the market is simply digesting the news. The CTV loss was expected and already priced in. (The share price slide started the first week of Sept, which is when the data feed was cut off, the info had got into the market.) I think the results from the rest of the business were well ahead of expectations, in hindsight, even more so given CTV was down by $5 to $10m from the trend line of the past 2 years. The string of recent press releases are all very promising. Once the panic sellers are out, the market will move on and look forwards. Somebody is happy to mop up cheap shares, in fact they have set the price - "if you want to bail at any price, I'll give you £6.25". £10 by Christmas seems fair to me, pending full year results (which will almost certainly beat guidance (on EBITDA margin alone, if not also revenue).

I will be at today's presentation and also the RBC conference tomorrow. See you all there!

Last year's Q4 CTV income was $17m. If LG acr data was about 1/3, then last year's Q4 CTV was say $11 - $12m (ex. Alphonso).

Compare that to expected 2021 Q4 CTV income of say $23 (no LG) then it is yoy growth of 100%. 100% growth normally would be ok. But they were doing 280%. (TTD hints it is doing 30% growth on average Q on Q which is about 180% yoy) which TRMR show on their Q2 slide deck at slide 15. Once Vidaa data kicks it, CTV income should get given the welly. But that's a long time to wait in investment and the damage is done. Management should have been open and honest about this loss.

For UK investors tomorrow - https://investors.tremorinternational.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tremor-international-investor-presentation

They are likely to just re-run through the Q3 CC presentation and highlight future plans re Vidaa, SpearAd and CTV growth in general and give a general assurance that all is well (which TBH I think it is, taking a 3 to 6 month view). However, clearly a public relations / investor relations disaster. A chance to ask the right questions which the analysts failed to ask!

- how much CTV revenue was dependent on the LG data feed / ex Alphonso - I reckon a quarter to a third.
- can you give guidance to what CTV revenue will be in Q4 (Magnite did)
- how well is the CTV marketplace doing
- guidance appears low, and the EBITDA margin is low, given you have just done 55%, the margin should be higher, on higher income (more so, given September was you best ever month)
- Re SPO, unfortunately the market is going the other way, with OEMs forming DSPs walled gardens, and the likelihood that broadcasters and media companies will form their own SSPs. Is there really a future for the open internet ad tec companies, or will advertisers be basically held to ransom by an inefficient structure.

I can't ask all that, maybe limited to one question. Probably the best chance we'll have to ask the questions we have. If posters have the time, I strongly suggest we all tune in for tomorrow's presentation. Ask what you want. Don't be shy!

Discussion of EGM and remuneration package was very limited. I exchanged a post or so with Rusty on this thread. If you click on to thread view, you should pick up what was said on here.

"We continue to believe that advertisers and media partners will rely on and allocate additional spending toward fewer companies with a diverse portfolio of solutions that can service them across all parts of the buying processes and across all screens regardless of their service level needs."

"we spoke a lot yet about Spearad, but we are going to do that in the near future. It's one of the most advanced platforms that we saw that is incorporating and CTV ad server and header bidder in the platform."

"Highlighted by September being the strongest single month since the company's inception."

A selection of comments from the earnings call that I found particularly intriguing.

Radium, I have looked at the FinnCap report. They are guessing at $23m CTV revenue for Q4. Not major growth, but of course this is without the LG acr data dependent customers. My guess is that this would be a quarter to a third of Tremor's CTV revenue. Comparing this with Q4 last year makes the YoY growth in CTV ok. if you knock off the LG side from last year's Q4 of $17m - say $11 or $12m last Q4 without LG? So it's a doubling - pretty good underlying growth.

Regarding Magnite's CTV - they now class their ad server revenue as CTV income, so their projected Q4 CTV figures are skewed upwards - they did not disclose the Springserve revenue. So, their CTV side is not growing as expected either.

The whole market is supposed to $13bn gross ad spend in CTV this year. By my rough maths only about $1.5bn of this is through the open internet - the rest it's all going through Amazon, Google and FreeWheel, plus walled gardens of TV manufacturers. Advertisers, for obvious reasons don't like it - it's very inefficient dealing with many different DSPs and SSPs. Very costly to them. Oh, for one platform, with access to all TV sets, all data and all media companies CTV inventory! Tremor's dream objective, but realistically unachievable. You heard what was said about supply path optimisation, Pubmatic said similar. Advertisers want this, and also the supply side - they can charge more for the inventory if it's better targeted. Walled gardens in OEMs are in the way. They won't last - they only have access to their own TV sets - they have a limited reach, limited profits limited to how many TV sets they sell. Take Alphonso - their only customers are the customers they've taken off Tremor. Same as Roku - they can't increase their profits without selling more TV sets. They will realise they can make more money, without doing any work, by licensing their acr data to the whole market. They don't have the scale otherwise. How profitable do you think Alphonso is? Not very. It's all ongoing evolution of the adtec space. If you're willing to load up at £8.00 and hold for 2 - 3 years, I wouldn't worry too much over it.

As for the SP - a tricky one I suppose. We are still relatively newly listed. It's ADRs rather than a full list. Some image problems perhaps (hence all these investor conferences Tremor are now attending). The market isn't dumb - it will have spotted the drop off in CTV revenues. Remember the analysts are retail analysts in the main. Institutions take time to buy in, they do due diligence, discuss it amongst their fund management team etc before acting too hastily etc. Give them time to do their job.

And where has the SP settled today? £8.00 - a round number, a psychological sticking point of traders and chartists. It means nothing regarding valuation. Suggests that the UK market is in charge - sticking at a round number in pounds rather than a round number is dollars! In time, the US market will take charge. Sorry, waffling on. It's tea tim

Ode To Joy you say? 89 million views this one - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBaHPND2QJg

Imagine composing that, and never being able to hear it!

I'm ex Taptica too, bought in around 3.70 late 2017 I think from memory.

Looking for a close comfortably over $22.50 (about £8.30) to re-instate uptrend in SP.

Perion, I reckon will do about $60m EBITDA - it's getting on for about 20 times multiple. I reckon Pubmatic will do $100m - also now on a 20 times multiple. Magnite looks like will do $140 - $150m, so also on 20 times (but has substantial debt). TRMR appear to be guiding for a $10m rise in revenue for Q4 on Q3, but flattish EBITDA. Given TRMR's margins, plus any beat on revenue, the beat on EBITDA for Q4 could be sizable. The upside here over the next few weeks must be 50% plus.

Shame about the CTV loss - would really have shot off then. Will take 6 to 9 months to get the CTV side of things back in top gear.

Presentation slides up - looking forward re the plans for next year.
https://investors.tremorinternational.com/static-files/b6392b6b-c220-4a2f-9bad-ac1b0776d1dc

But, they have removed the graph of Q on Q CTV revenue that was present last time around! To hide the Q on Q fall???????? See slide 15 last time around - https://investors.tremorinternational.com/static-files/eed1a362-1679-497d-9e65-0b7503ab5278 - you can clearly see that the previous strong rising trend has come off the rails (loss of LG dependent customers will all have gone to Alphonso) - a large loss to this year's Q4 numbers.

The legacy performance business, that was in decline, appears to have made a strong turnaround - helps the overall numbers and to some extent masks the lost CTV income - can't pull the wool down over this little lamb's eyes. Given the importance of CTV in adtec, market concerns will be high. Let's see how they talk things up on the call (and then next week's conference). Let's see how good the analysts are in asking the right questions!

CTV is down on Q2. The LG loss is showing clearly in the numbers. Everybody else is showing Q on Q growth in CTV. It will be about quarter to a third that they have lost - CTV should have been getting on for $30m. However, profit wise not too bad of a loss - I picked up from the court papers that TRMR did not pay Alphonso for the second Q, which was about $2.5m for half the Q - so say $20m a year. What has been lost will be quickly replaced in the new year, and fully integrated whereas Alphonso wasn't, Vidda will be. Also, the deal is global pointing to ambitious plans of global expansion. Given how strong Q4 normally is - could be circa $10m lost EBITDA in Q4. ie a substantial loss as described in court. But, plenty of scope to beat guidance, come February by say another $5m EBITDA.

Analysts and the market will notice this - no Q on Q growth in Q4 will be a concern. I think the SP will rise, but to what level? TBH, don't care. I'm a long term investor and it's all to play for next year. May we all get what we've finally wanted!