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Hi Radium,
thanks, but please note what I say, what we all say, are based on our own understanding and perceptions of the world. I have lost serious money (occasionally) on shares with a bad call (so has Warren Buffet). This is a share I ended up in by accident, have stayed because the financials tell me to stay put. I don't normally research things in this detail, but this space is so fast moving, I feel compelled to!

I think the OS in Smart TVs is now more important than the brand name. Here is Roku in A Hisense TV!
https://www.argos.co.uk/product/8999931?clickPR=plp:1:24

This may help
https://www.makeuseof.com/tag/best-smart-tv-operating-system/

and
https://www.expertreviews.co.uk/tvs/1411779/best-smart-tv

Re Sky Glass - picked from forums, it's not a Smart TV OS as such, more like Sky box
"It's a proprietary OS, unique to Sky Glass. There is no app store or web browser. You are entirely at the mercy of Sky and whatever apps they choose to give you access to."
NOT VIDAA then.
But a Hisense TV, branded as Sky.

Radium, Thanks for the discussion. Original Rns - https://investors.tremorinternational.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tremor-international-signs-exclusive-global-partnership-vidaa

I think there are two issues. VIDAA is the software operating system which TRMR has partnered with (not Hisense itself). VIDAA OS in most (not all) Hisense TVs, and also in some of some other TVs brands eg Toshiba. This means some Hisense TVs will not be VIDAA, and not TRMR. It looks like from your link that the LG OS is also in a few TVs from other brands as well as LG models, eg Toshiba, Sharpe and Hisense. Roku pointed out on their call that there were only a small number of TV operating systems - Roku are in many TV brands, I think it depends on the model per brand? They are trying to dominate the market and become the MS Windows OS of TVs! The new Sky Glass TVs - set up to stream Sky TV, are made by Hisense! I don't know which OS they use. (Sky have gone with Freewheel as SSP and TTD as DSP, as have Ch 4). If it's VIDAA, then sounds like TRMR would have the ACR data - a complicated mess!

I did in fact email TRMR IR about the timing of the VIDAA deal and whether they had immediate access to the ACR data before May, but on an non exclusive way, and not fully integrated into their data management platform. The reply was evasive and basically repeated the rns wording. I assume that VIDAA has some contracts with other third parties that expire in May, hence, the delay until then. I assume that 'exclusive' has its normal everyday meaning, so yes other parties would lose the VIDAA ACR data (as TRMR lost the LG ACR data when their contract was terminated early). If some Hisense TVs use the LG OS, then there is no effect on them.

On Roku's call, Laura Martin asked whether Roku had plans to license out their data as an extra revenue stream! The response was a terse no - ACR data commands a premium price, so the fewer who have it, the more dosh they can charge. They are wanting in on the ad tec market. We know advertisers don't like it - they charge too much, have little reach, and it's hardly supply path optimisation! It further 'fragments' the market. Note how often TRMR use the word 'fragmented' in their press releases - TRMR are trying to counter this. It's early days with a lot of companies muscling in for a land grab - a case of waiting and watching to see how it plays out.

We should get some more details on Thursday, as I'm sure the new CTV platform, plus VIDAA and SpearAd will feature prominently in the presentation. It's TRMRs pièce de résistance!

WS, good to chat with you again, too. I'm not a DARK fan, but have watched its rise and fall. If successful then yes, good entry point now.
Re TRMR, I was asking your advice. Don't be swayed by my patter! Looks like it may go south of 500p on Monday (I was a buyer last Monday at 510 - 520p). Hopefully, not far from the bottom for my purchases. Looking forward to results, but sp quite bonkers and unpredictable.

Hi WS,
Long time no hear. Thought you must have sold out completely? Think I can recall you were planning on reducing substantially. If you 'read' the charts, you read them well! Are you as good at reading them them to get back in? Any advice? Mind you, with the markets on a knife edge over many factors, I guess all rules of thumb are out the window at the moment.

I'm with Radium on the viewpoint of wanting a buy back. TRMR are producing a shed load of cash pa now, and can afford a decent buy back out off new cashflow, without hitting current BS cash on hand. The sp is stupefying low, so would be an excellent use of funds and prevent any further meaningful falls in price. We know the board have it under review - just hope they go for one, and go big.

Hardly new news. Has been the trend for some time and predicted by the ad tec players - their view is that people will not pay for multiple subscriptions, so these will end up having to take advertising. If they don't, they will not be able to afford to make the content. Hence, problems at Netflix - no free cash flow, its profits are reinvested into content. This then begs the question whether their accounts are properly prepared - should content be capitalised as as asset, or charged as an expense to P&L account, or if capitalised, should it be amortised at a mush sharper rate? Put more simply, are these streaming media companies actually profitable? As ad budgets move to streaming, more streaming platforms will start to accept ads.

Pretty much sums up the ad tec / CTV investment case. May not pan out this way, but so far so good. Ad tec is profitable, and with real free cash flow. Stock markets are fickle and form bubbles and negative bubbles! When the market gets off sales multiples and back to real cash flow, we'll get sensible valuations.

Take Roku - just a software company really. Its big idea is to do a walled garden around ACR data and cash in on advertising. Its main ad spot is the home screen. Not enough. So it's got its own channel - Roku channel - guess what? To get viewers it's got into making original exclusive content. Its expenses are rocketing. Advertisers will only pay for the number of viewers watching - it's not enough for a viable business. Walled gardens don't work with smaller numbers of customers. Plus, Roku has maxed out its own marketing spend, it needs people to buy a Roku TV instead of LG, Samsung, Hisense etc.
They are trying to cash in on ad tec, though they are not ad tec businesses, because they know ad tec is where the real money is! Put bluntly, Roku isn't a viable model, not even worth the current sp. I hold the same view for LG Ads. As does OD. But Wall Street still sees these as a threat to ad tec players.

Hisense approach much better - license its data - it gets paid, but does no work, has no tec infrastructure to set up, or finance, and carries no risk in the event of failure. Let the experts in ad tec get on with their job - using the data for the benefit of the whole market, on both the buy and sell side.

Tremor have been saying this for years and it's looking more likely now that they have called it spot on. The stock market hasn't yet, hence, investors' frustration and capitulation.

I have re watched the Investor Meet presentation, all through from last results. It's all in there, all the clues are there, if you really listen and get in between the lines.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_UgJMNVjEw&t=85s

These are TTDs EBITDA figures from 2015

2015 $39m
2016 65
2017 95
2018 159
2019 214
2020 284 (lower because of covid? But a lot of election spend)
2021 503

Tremor’s are 2018 - $44m, 2019 - 60, 2020 - 60, 2021 - $150-160m

OD is on record as saying that in 2020, without covid, EBITDA would have been $90- 100m

We are tacking the same growth as TTD, but 3 years behind! If we do $150 - 160m 2021, we should do $210 - 220m for 2022? Still tracking the growth of TTD!

Interesting and fascinating.

Nasdaq.com is showing updated list of US holders, now includes Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley (click on new). A few who bought in at IPO have sold out completely (click on sold out). The healthy list under new is, I think, encouraging.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/trmr/institutional-holdings

Shorts still high, at 31.01.22 total of 334,698

Well, yes, Dog, I took that as read. My thinking was that the sp looked to flattening and trying to rise, with about $14 being the floor now. Results should be fine, with a perfectly reasonable outlook statement. However, interest rate / inflation rate concerns seem to flip daily, affecting all shares. And should Ukraine be actually invaded, then this will trump all stock specific news. Short term, I would be grateful of a rating in line with Pubmatic, Magnite & Perion.

Roku results out as I post.

Cheers, Gdog.
And I guess the sentiment applies to all long timers invested here. With perhaps $160m EBITDA to be reported for 2021 and just shy of $400m in cash, the down side on a company valued at $1bn, has to be pretty minimal (famous last words)!

Website not behaving today, but glad it took the post!

Radium - sorry, but I don't believe in conspiracies. There has been a multitude of factors which have affected the sp, including sector specific and macro concerns. We may get a buy back, but there are listing rules which require important stuff to be announced as necessary, not held back until a results day. The company is too busy developing its tec at the moment to be overly involved in a major deal, eg VIDAA and this gem -

https://investors.tremorinternational.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tremor-international-increases-tv-data-reach-44-million-us

Sounds superb to me! With more to come. All recent conferences, interviews with Offer have been positive, and he appears relaxed and confident. Much is going on in the background, all very promising. They will continue to push the good news to get investors on board and the sp rising. I was in for another 18,000 shares on Monday morning, before US opened. I am very confident on this stock's future, and on its independence.

Agree with your TTDs post (ps look at their 2021 stock based comp!!!)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbZAiv64FnA&t=273s

Chart comment - 10:57 in

Cheers, Radium.
Con' Call is 4.30pm our time, I think (5hrs diff ?)

Typical TTD, a revenue beat, an EBITDA beat and a margin beat on the EBITDA. Tremor seem to be taking a similar line in their guidance too - so looks very promising. Q1 guidance very substantial growth, probably on target for $750m plus, in EBITDA 2022. Shares are priced at the bottom of the range of 'normal' for a growth stock growing at this rate. SP ought to rise, excluding any other negative, macro factors ... ... ... ... (dangerous call). I'll be back at 9pm.

FDH, thank you for the input. As for PIs, I find that a lot of them are quite fickle these days. I think many have been selling since the last trading update, with one or more institutions sitting on the bid at 78 - 79p taking everything offered, with neither PIs or institutions bidding the price up. PIs are traders more than investors, and will sell out if the sp isn't rising.

As you say, another sign of confidence in the business going forwards. If sp closes above 80p and holds, the trading history of this stock suggests 90p will come very soon, with a trading range of 80 - 90p established. I am intrigued as to what may happen in the run up to results - either a steady rise, or for sp to flatline in the 80's and then to pop 20% plus on the day. The only sure way is to be in it now.

More 'significant' trades 10am today. 1.8m traded, split 2 times 900,000 - balanced by 1.5m, 250,000 and 50,000. RNSs holdings expected, assuming above 3% threshold? Yesterday's announcement probably more important than mere PIs like me are able to grasp.

Given macro issues, US market uncertainty, and Ukraine, SP holding firm is a good sign of strength.

Digital Turbine (APPS) results out last week. Seems generally ok with them and guidance fine. A full stack model and confirms the trend and pressure from clients on both sides to reduce the number of costs and charges in the middle of the adtec system.

On target for about $200m EBITDA for the full year (it has a March year end, so it's Q3 earnings to December), and valued at about $5bn - say 25 times multiple.

https://ir.digitalturbine.com/financial-information/quarterly-financial-results

Trade Desk 16th February.

Magnite have announced 23rd February and Pubmatic are the 28th.

DoubleVerify are booked in for the 8th March.

Just the random walk of the market, Sparky.

Finally, the random walk hypothesis states that prices of stocks cannot be predicted. The stock market is “informationally efficient.” The people buying and selling stocks consist of a large number of rational investors with access to this information. While long term prices will reflect performance of the company over time, short term movements in prices can best be described as a random walk.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCGYAWTX6vE

EBITDA

Earnings before I trick the damned auditor!

2021 - 44.1m revenue, 6.1 in pre tax profit, eps of 2.7p

2022 - 51m revenue, 8.5 in pre tax profit, eps of 3.8

At date of publication, sp was 76p, giving PERs of 28 and 20. To be honest, these look high to me, given expected EBITDA of 6.5m to 7.5m (2021), because of the depreciation and amortisation costs (see 2020 accounts and 2021 interims). But eps figures are likely to 'adjusted', some amortisation on acquired intangibles may be excluded? Not enough detail given to be able to reconcile this.

For this company, my preferred valuation yardstick is a multiple of EBITDA and I think 20 is about fair. H2 EBITDA will be about 5m, so at least 10m for 2022, 'equals' valuation of £200m. Approximately 110p. This sp target is line with all other commentators on this stock, who are more professional me. Should the market decide on a rerate to 30 times (more in line with the sector), then some guy called Bob is apparently my Uncle!