RE: Gotta admit...19 May 2022 00:01
Another version of the transcript - https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/05/17/tremor-international-ltd-trmr-q1-2022-earnings-cal/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article
Much easier to read it in my own voice, in my own head, with appropriate grammatical pauses and in my own accent. Makes more sense. Also, I found the sound quality very poor on the call and playback. Figures and guidance do appear poor, basically flat on last year. Made worse by the strong performance in performance, i.e. programmatic was even lower, only 6% growth, per rns.
Positives are that revenue so far this Q is above Q1 at the same point in time (they had better be, as Q1 is the weakest), seem optimistic re Vidaa and growth in CTV, esp self serve income. This shows in the figures, as they show gross spend for CTV (no longer give net revenue figures) - it's at a lower margin of net rev to gross spend. I have played on a spreadsheet at some depth on this (using all data from results and comparatives) and conclude it's now about 35%, so net ctv revenue is about $16m ($18m last year, so you can see why they did not give a net rev figure). However, last year includes Alphonso. Stripping out Alphonso (and that acr data is on a very big margin) the pure comparatives on a like for like basis are actually rather good. I estimate about 58% growth in gross spend, ex Alphonso. Vidaa should also produce very high margin returns on acr data, which can be leveraged for a wide range of purposes.
There is a strange one off figure of $5m described as other income, but I cannot see any explanation as to what this is????
Re Alphonso - they were loss making and Tremor lent them money to see them to profitability. Tremor will certainly get judgement to have that cash repaid. As for the rest of the case, I can't offer an opinion. They terminated some contracts early and it seems paid those parties for the breach. Tremor was further down the chain. This may (or may not be) perfectly legal and just aggressive, but normal business practice - hence, why it's gone to court, it's a grey area. Any settlement will not effect profits or future profits, so will be insignificant to the value of the company.
I can see US markets falling further, esp the Nasdaq, easily below 11,000, if 10,000 goes then 9,000 will! Ad tec is now cheap, so although it will fall too, percentage wise should be more limited.
Re M&A - not sure what they could buy now, they have all the components of a full stack. Perhaps some thing not in the US, to boost international growth? Curious. They also said if no acquisition, they will look at alternatives to returning value to SHs - also curious, increasing buyback, a dividend or a tender offer?
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